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Item 05
City of Lakeville Population, Household and Employment 1990 - 2030 Actual Forecast 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Population 24,854 43,128 55,954 78,400 88,800 Households 7,851 13,609 18,683 28,400 33,500 Employment 6,563 9,885 13,882 22,945 27,387 Memorandum item No. City of Lakeville Community & Economic Development To: Mayor and City Council Steve Mielke, City Administrator From: David L Olson, Community and Economic Development Director Cc: Dennis Feller, Finance Director Daryl Morey, Planning Director Brett Altergott, Parks and Recreation Director Chris Petree, Public Works Director Zach Johnson, City Engineer Allyn Kuennen, Administrative Services Manager Date: November 22, 2013 Subject: Review of Preliminary Met Council 2040 Population and Household Forecasts The Metropolitan Council has recently released preliminary 2040 population, household, and employment forecasts for all of the cities in the Seven County Metropolitan Area. A copy of these revised forecasts is attached. These forecasts are part of the preparation of the Thrive MSP 2040 plan that will establish the policy foundation and priorities for the Council's upcoming system and policy plans that will address transportation, regional parks, water, and housing. The attached memo dated 11/18/13 from Jane Vanderpoel, Management Analyst with Dakota County does a good job of providing the background on how the Met Council arrived at the preliminary forecasts that have recently been released and the feedback that has been received from outlying suburbs like Lakeville as well as more fully developed cities. I will not reiterate the same general background information in this memo but rather will provide a comparison of previous forecasts to the current preliminary forecasts for Lakeville. Forecasted numbers prepared by the Met Council in 2003 -04 that were the basis for the 2008 Comprehensive Plan Update: City of Lakeville Population, Household and Employment 2000 - 2040 Actual Forecast 2000 2010 2040 Population 43,128 55,954 72,400 Households 13,609 18,683 30,500 Employment 10,966 13,862 21,800 Current Met Council 2040 preliminary forecasts: The significant differences for the City of Lakeville are: The current 2040 preliminary population forecast of 72,400 is 16,400 Tess than the previous 2030 population forecast of 88,800. The current 2040 preliminary household forecast of 30,500 is 3,000 less than the previous 2030 household forecast of 33,500. The 2040 preliminary household forecast of 30,500 would require an average of 394 new housing units to be constructed every year. The current 2040 forecasted average household size is 2.37 persons per household. The previous 2030 forecast of average household size was 2.65 persons per household. The 2010 Census indicated an average household size of 2.99 persons per household. The following is an illustration of how the current and forecasted range of average household (HH) size would impact population numbers using the preliminary estimate of 30,500 households in 2040: Summary 30,500 HH x 2.99 persons per HH = 91,195 Population 30,500 HH x 2.65 persons per HH = 80,825 Population 30,500 HH x 2.37 persons per HH = 72,400 Population As has been indicated, the Met Council will be revising their initial forecasts and based on comments that have already been expressed by other outlying suburban cities, and as a result the numbers for Lakeville are likely to increase (See attached StarTribune article regarding Scott County cities responses to these initial forecasts.) Staff does not feel that an average of nearly 400 new housing units per year is that far off given that between 2000 through 2010 the City averaged just over 500 new housing units per year. 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The Metropolitan Council's first step is forecasting population, numbers of households, and jobs for all cities, counties and townships in the seven - county metro area 10 years beyond the current comprehensive plans (the next one goes out to 2040). Preliminary forecasts were shown to the Metropolitan Council in September. Their researchers are now conducting workshops for local government officials and staff across the metropolitan area to collect reaction to these forecasts. A revision of the forecasts is expected in January; the Metropolitan Council is scheduled to give its final approval next spring. The preliminary Thrive 2040 forecast and the most recent forecast data (from the 2030 comprehensive planning cycle) for Dakota County are shown in the table below. The table from the Metropolitan Council showing the new forecasts in the three areas for all municipalities in the County is shown on page 2. The forecasted population for the County in 2040 is about 8,000 fewer people — but for an entire decade later. Similarly, the forecasted number of jobs also drops by about 10,000 — for ten years later than the earlier forecast. The forecasted number of households is higher, which means the Metropolitan Council demographers expect average household sizes to decrease. In other words, the Metropolitan Council has concluded that overall growth in the County's population and lobs will slow dramatically over the next two decades. This matters for two reasons. One, our comprehensive planning process will have to match the forecasts; we do not have the freedom to assume our population in 2040 will actually be bigger than the Metropolitan Council forecast. Second, the forecast affects Metropolitan Council's investments in services for transportation, transit, parks and sewer /water lines. Population Households Employment 2040 Forecast (prepared in 2013) 517,030 222,920 234,910 2030 Forecast (prepared in 2004) 525,275 210,925 245,000 Office of Planning and Analysis Dakota County Administration Center 1590 Hwy. 55, Hastings, MN 55033 -2372 Phone: (651) 438 -4433 • Fax: (651) 438 -4405 ♦ www.dakotacounty.us M E M O R A N D U M Date: November 18, 2013 To: Brandt Richardson, Erin Stwora, Kurt Chatfield From: Jane Vanderpoel, Management Analyst Subject: Metropolitan Council Workshop: Thrive 2040 forecasts for Population, Housing, Jobs Background and context The Metropolitan Council is charged by law with establishing the basis by which local governments conduct their decennial comprehensive planning process. The Metropolitan Council's first step is forecasting population, numbers of households, and jobs for all cities, counties and townships in the seven - county metro area 10 years beyond the current comprehensive plans (the next one goes out to 2040). Preliminary forecasts were shown to the Metropolitan Council in September. Their researchers are now conducting workshops for local government officials and staff across the metropolitan area to collect reaction to these forecasts. A revision of the forecasts is expected in January; the Metropolitan Council is scheduled to give its final approval next spring. The preliminary Thrive 2040 forecast and the most recent forecast data (from the 2030 comprehensive planning cycle) for Dakota County are shown in the table below. The table from the Metropolitan Council showing the new forecasts in the three areas for all municipalities in the County is shown on page 2. The forecasted population for the County in 2040 is about 8,000 fewer people — but for an entire decade later. Similarly, the forecasted number of jobs also drops by about 10,000 — for ten years later than the earlier forecast. The forecasted number of households is higher, which means the Metropolitan Council demographers expect average household sizes to decrease. In other words, the Metropolitan Council has concluded that overall growth in the County's population and lobs will slow dramatically over the next two decades. This matters for two reasons. One, our comprehensive planning process will have to match the forecasts; we do not have the freedom to assume our population in 2040 will actually be bigger than the Metropolitan Council forecast. Second, the forecast affects Metropolitan Council's investments in services for transportation, transit, parks and sewer /water lines. The long -range forecasts look different from previous forecasts because the Metropolitan Council has changed its methodology (more about that on page 4). The Metropolitan Council research staff sees these trends as the basis for its forecasts: • The growing segment of the population over age 65 will demand smaller households in more places that offer greater housing density, convenient access to services, and transit. Page 2 • Home buyers appear less willing to buy large, new homes on the fringe of the metro area because the recession taught homeowners that type of housing is no longer a "safe" investment, so the speed of growth in the outer suburbs will not return to pre- recession levels. • Adult workers perceive traffic congestion to be getting worse and consider gas prices to be more volatile, so their new preference is to live closer to where they work. These are the preliminary forecasts released September 2013: Apple Valley 45,527 49,084 62,100 16,344 18,875 26,600 12,106 14,279 18,700 Bumsville 60,220 60,306 76,200 23,687 24,283 32,800 31,765 31,593 41,200 Castle Rock Township 1,495 1,342 1,100 514 504 510 344 356 440 Coates 163 161 160 64 66 70 252 109 180 Douglas Township 760 716 870 235 259 420 96 92 80 Eagan 63,557 64,206 86,800 23,773 25,249 36,100 42,750 49,526 70,000 Empire Township 1,638 2,444 2,500 515 792 1,130 217 255 320 Eureka Township 1,490 1,426 1,430 496 518 670 196 460 220 Farmington 12,365 21,086 26,900 4,169 7,066 11,600 3,986 4,438 7,300 Greenvale Township 684 803 1,240 227 275 590 68 49 640 Hampton 434 689 890 156 245 420 178 127 210 Hampton Township 986 903 1,230 320 329 580 186 85 210 Hastings (part) 18,201 22,172 28,900 6,640 8,735 13,300 8,872 8,532 10,400 Inver Grove Heights 29,751 33,880 46,300 11,257 13,476 20,200 8,168 9,442 12,900 Lakeville 43,128 55,954 72,400 13,609 18,683 30,500 10,966 13,862 21,800 Lilydale 552 623 1,340 338 375 590 354 355 420 MarshanTownship 1,263 1,106 1,110 404 403 520 220 117 320 Mendota 197 198 340 80 78 150 266 270 340 Mendota Heights 11,434 11,071 15,200 4,178 4,378 6,500 8,549 11,550 13,700 Miesville 135 125 150 52 52 70 97 116 120 New Trier 116 112 110 31 41 50 30 35 60 Nininger Township 865 950 840 280 372 400 165 149 330 Northfield (part) 557 1,147 1,860 216 414 860 79 470 730 Randolph 318 436 490 117 168 230 123 122 100 Randolph Township 536 659 760 192 246 360 130 113 120 Ravenna Township 2,355 2,336 2,180 734 780 1,010 115 38 50 Rosemount 14,619 21,874 29,200 4,742 7,587 12,400 6,356 6,721 11,600 Sciota Township 285 414 510 92 140 240 21 33 250 South St. Paul 20,167 20,160 23,500 8,123 8,186 10,600 7,697 8,557 10,900 Sunfish Lake 504 521 560 173 183 260 23 8 - Vermillion 437 419 500 160 156 230 221 93 180 Vermillion Township 1,243 1,192 1,610 395 424 750 280 90 80 Waterford Township 517 497 650 193 193 310 461 679 1,010 West St. Paul 19,405 19,540 27,100 8,645 8,529 11,900 8,905 7,471 10,000 Dakota County Total 355,904 398,552 517,030 131,151 152,060 222,920 154,242 170,192 234,910 METRO AREA totals 2,642,062 2,849,567 3,736,000 1,021,456 1,117,749 1,614,000 1,606,263 1,543,872 2,133,000 Note: The 2000 and 2010 data are not estimates, but are pulled from the Census (population, households) and from other data sources. The figures shown for the cities of Hastings and Northfield include only the precincts within Dakota County. At the Northern Service Center workshop November 4, Metropolitan Council demographer Todd Graham said previous workshop attendees have said most close -in cities (those that are already fully developed) have little room for the population growth assigned to them, and the outlying suburbs (where there is room to grow) expect to grow more quickly than the forecasts indicate. What's next The Metropolitan Council research staff characterize their forecasts as a work in progress. They plan revisions. They invite local governments to challenge their assumptions, but they want objections or suggestions backed up with data. Early December is the deadline for comments. The next draft of forecasts will be released in January. Page 3 About 70% of growth is attributed to natural growth (i.e. more births than deaths) and 30% is attributed to people moving in and out of the region. The Metropolitan Council's Todd Graham conceded that their assumptions are based on data that reflect market decisions made by homebuyers and businesses in the last few years. His colleague, Dennis Farmer, said the same thing at an event for the Twin Cities Research Group on November 13. They do not appear to believe it is necessary to temper those assumptions by considering how or whether the recession and poor economy affected decisions — though they have updated their "regional control totals" (the total population, total households, total jobs) forecasts with 2011 data and plan to include 2012 data in the revision to be released in January, after that 2012 data is available. Metropolitan Council staff have not indicated that they collected any data by surveys, or attempted to predict future preferences or behavior in any objective way, other than by drawing conclusions from recent data. At the NSC workshop, planners from several Dakota County cities provided feedback very similar to comments already received in previous workshops as described above — that close -in and fully developed cities such as South St. Paul, West St. Paul, Mendota Heights, and Burnsville have no place to put the additional people and households predicted for them, and the outlying suburbs (Rosemount, Lakeville, Farmington) believe they'll grow more quickly than the forecast indicates. Washington County planning staff indicated their cities have reacted similarly. In addition, the Washington County HRA representative said a newly completed study by Maxfield Research consultants finds that growth in that county will not be as rapid as it was during the mid -2000s housing boom, but will not be as depressed as Metropolitan Council predicts. Maxfield expects that regionally, the suburbs such as Maple Grove, Woodbury, and Lakeville will continue to fill out as the real estate market recovers from the recession. The Metropolitan Council researchers do not calculate population forecasts for counties as separate entities. Instead, they do calculations from the ground up, for each individual municipality within a county, and then add the numbers to get a county's totals. This formula means cities and townships are in a better position to seek changes in forecasts than counties, because the county's forecasts are dependent purely on math. Libby Starling, Metropolitan Council research director, said last week that their revised forecasts will be re- calculated for all cities and townships in the region. She encouraged planners and other city or township officials to contact her or her staff with their views about the accuracy of the forecasts, whether they agree or disagree with the forecasts. Page 4 Ms. Starling also added that the Metropolitan Council's decisions on investments in regional infrastructure — including roads, transit, parks, sewer/water — would be based on the Council's forecasts (a final vote is expected in April 2014). She said Metropolitan Council staff believe "there is adequate land within the 2030 MUSA to take us to 2040." Feedback to Metropolitan Council is that they may have misread or misjudged the strength of recent market forces and their cause, which has caused them to over - estimate the degree of change likely in population and households. County planners do not know whether planners from the cities in Dakota County have provided Metropolitan Council staff with their views about the accuracy of the forecasts. Metropolitan Council Forecasting Methods For population and households, the Thrive 2040 forecasts have two pieces: the demand side and the supply side. The supply side is a transparent calculation of the potential number of households of various types (as shown in current zoning in city /township current comprehensive guide plans) multiplied by the (current) average household size for those housing types. This could be thought of as a ceiling, or greatest possible number, of housing units and people. Comments from city planners at workshops are that the Metropolitan Council assumes additional housing may be built in places considered unlikely by cities, such as in large commercial /industrial areas that would require expensive and extensive redevelopment, and vice versa — that the researchers aren't counting major developments that do appear likely (such as UMore Park, the former Ford plant in St. Paul and the TCAP in Arden Hills). Others said comp guide plans that show potential maximum housing density do not match up with the actual housing density in some places. Policy decisions by elected officials — such as a preference for avoiding more rental housing — also should be considered. The Metropolitan Council estimates of potential housing were mostly compiled with no input from cities other than comp guide plans, so researchers are willing to re -visit both their assumptions and their numbers on the "supply" side of the equation, with information from cities regarding unusable land or development projects likely to be underway by 2020. The second piece of the forecast methodology is new, and attempts to predict the "demand" side of the equation. Essentially, the researchers are answering the questions: Where do people want to live, and why? Their conclusion is that real estate demand and development patterns in the next two decades will be different from the last two decades due to anticipated changes in demographics, housing preferences and travel behavior. Metropolitan Council researchers have built a complicated model partly based on Census Bureau data (where people came from, where they moved to, their age, race and income) that essentially predicts future behavior among those who will purchase homes or locate businesses based on recent past behavior. Starting with the 1,200 TAZs in the region, Metropolitan Council researchers have layered on additional attributes to essentially create a "desirability index" for each TAZ that reflects the degree to which it has attributes that homeowners want: housing type, employment types, population demographics, proximity to water (lakes, rivers, beaches) and open spaces, access to transit and amenities, etc. However, the researchers said they are not considering factors such as crime rate, quality of schools, age of housing, and other factors that one would expect would also affect decision- making about where people want to live. Metropolitan Council staff explained that while those factors appear obvious now, they are likely to change over the next 25 years in ways that are hard to predict, so they are not built into the forecast assumptions. Todd Graham explained that Metropolitan Council staff assumed the market segments — for example, Millennials, Gen X/Y and Baby Boomers — would make housing or location decisions in the next two decades in the same ways they have recently. Traditionally, young and single professionals have gravitated to higher- density rental housing in urban areas with a variety of social opportunities. When they marry and begin having children, they typically move into single family homes with more space, bigger yards, closer to parks and recreation, and where good schools and safe neighborhoods can be found. Metropolitan Council population /housing forecasts anticipate much less of that movement because data from the recession shows young adults delaying commitments like marriage and homebuying in favor of living in more urban areas in rental property. On the other hand, the Metropolitan Council population /housing forecasts assume older adults in the Baby Boomer generation and later, as they become empty- nesters, will shed their current housing in those family- oriented suburban areas described above and will move into the type of low- maintenance housing currently preferred by Millennials, where they can get to conveniently - located services using public transit. City planners at the workshops, however, said they've seen very little of that shift; they report older adults value their one -level (accessible) homes that are already paid for, and which may be close to grandchildren and are not in a hurry to move. Metropolitan Council modeling data that underpins the forecasts is available. Metropolitan Council staff used Cube Land software, which is the same vendor they use to produce their travel demand estimates. Once the Thrive2040 forecasts are final, researchers will revise the 2020 and 2030 projections as well. Employment numbers are arrived at with a similar model, except it is based on decisions made by business owners instead of home buyers. Predicting the numbers of jobs 25 years into the future is difficult considering rapid changes in technology, whims of consumers, and cities' ability to attract businesses with many jobs. Metropolitan Council researchers said they use their land use model for this forecast, which looks at how jobs were distributed across the region in 2010. Page 5 StarTribune - Print Page http:// www .startribune.com/printarticle / ?id= 232558791 StarTribune Met Council reassures Scott County on growth Article by: David Peterson Star Tribune November 19, 2013 - 3:37 PM There's no need to panic over a new set of forecasts predicting far less growth in Scott County cities than many are expecting. That is the message from the Metropolitan Council, which issued the forecasts earlier this fall. The predictions matter because they can become self - fulfilling prophecies: the basis for lots of decisions on future spending on roads and much more. "I want to stress that these local forecasts are preliminary and will be revised based on comments from cities," research analyst Dennis Farmer assured a group of county and city staffers and elected officials in Prior Lake earlier this month. "They are already being modified. ... A lot of developing suburbs" — not just those in Scott — "think they are too low." Despite the assurances, a procession of local officials stood up and objected to them. "It seems as though your assumptions are based on what has recently occurred rather than the overall trend over 15 or 20 years," said Savage City Administrator Barry Stock. "The economy is improving, land values are rapidly increasing — though not to the craziness we saw six or seven years ago — but they are going up." Under the older forecasts, Savage would rise from its 2012 figure of 27,552 to 39,200 by 2030. The new preliminary forecast doesn't assign a value for 2030 but ratchets expectations back to 34,400 by 2040. Similar changes in projections occurred in lots of outer -ring suburban areas. The forecasts, Met Council officials said, were never anything more than an opening shot that would lead to a period of give and take in which they moved from a computer model to sounder predictions based on local knowledge of on- the - ground realities and expectations. Said Met Council forecaster Todd Graham: "In all humility, a forecast model is an analytic construct, and we can modify it." Most likely, growth will end up being redistributed as local officials react to the numbers, he said, and "differences in population will show up a little further out, in the third ring or even [a rural outpost such as] Elko New Market. ... There will be substantial differences in the next version of the forecast." Why they matter The forecasts are drawing keen interest because they're far from just casual guesses or an academic exercise. The council carries a lot of weight in approving things like new transit lines and bridges that are needed to support growing populations. Shakopee Mayor Brad Tabke thanked council officials for "coming out and engaging with us on these numbers," adding: "When I first saw them, I didn't realize this was just the first part of a process. I thought it was what would be. "We need to make sure we get it right. We know that around [County Road] 83 and [Hwy.] 169, 5,000 jobs are coming in the next five years. That will significantly impact the entire region's growth." The timeline, council officials explained, is this: • Local governments are asked to comment officially by Dec. 1. 1 of 2 11/20/2013 10:06 AM StarTribune - Print Page http:// www .startribune.com/printarticle / ?id= 232558791 • The council will process those and get back to cities by January. Further give and take will ensue. • By April the council's members, appointed by the governor, are to approve a new set of forecasts that set the stage for planning. "These are preliminary forecasts that are not being used for planning purposes but just for discussions with cities," Farmer said. David Peterson • 952 - 746 -3285 © 2013 Star Tribune 2 of 2 11/20/2013 10:06 AM