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HomeMy WebLinkAboutWS Item 033601 Thurston Avenue N, Suite 100 Anoka, MN 55303 Phone: 763.231.5840 Facsimile: 763.427.0520 TPCTPCQ&_Plan ningCo.com MEMORANDUM TO: Allyn Kuennen, Interim City Administrator Daryl Morey, Planning Director David Olson, Community and Economic Development Director FROM: Daniel Licht, AICP DATE: 11 September 2014 RE: Lakeville — Thrive MSP 2040; Draft Transportation Policy Plat TPC FILE: 135.01 BACKGROUND Minnesota Statutes 473.176 requires that the Metropolitan Council prepare a long-range plan for the next 30 years of growth and development within the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area every ten years. The Metropolitan Council adopted Thrive MSP 2040 on 28 May 2014 addressing goals and policies for land use and housing and system plans for transportation, water resources, and regional parks. Local governments are required by Minnesota Statutes 473.864, Subd. 2 to update their own comprehensive plans to be consistent with Thrive MSP 2040, which must be adopted by 31 December 2018. The Metropolitan Council has issued a draft 2040 Transportation Policy Plan (TPP), which is one of the system plans of Thrive MSP 2040. The TTP is updated every four years and establishes goals, policies and objectives for the regional transportation system. The Metropolitan Council is accepting comments regarding the draft 2040 TPP between 14 August 2014 and 1 October 14, with a public hearing scheduled for 17 September 2014. Input from the comment period will then be reviewed by the Metropolitan Council for potential modifications to the draft 2040 TPP with a final plan to be presented for adoption in December 2014. ANALYSIS General The Metropolitan Council designates Lakeville as a Suburban Edge community. Suburban Edge communities have experienced significant housing development starting in the 1990s and continuing to the present time with large areas yet to be developed. Thrive 2040 MSP identifies the current land use pattern and transportation systems in Suburban Edge communities as automobile orientated stating that there is a need to align current development practices with plans for future transit service expansion and transitways. The population and household projections prepared as part of the Thrive MSP 2040 Plan indicate that the Great Recession has delayed regional growth within the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area by approximately 10 years. The number of households in the region was projected to be 1,492,000 by 2030 by all of the 2008 local comprehensive plans and the Metropolitan Council projects the number of households in 2040 to be 1,509,000. Based on the projections for population and household growth, the Thrive MSP 2040 Plan anticipates no expansion of the 2030 MUSA before 2040. The Metropolitan Council has not released updated projections for household, population and employment growth for individual local communities. When these projections become available, Lakeville will need to evaluate the projections as well as its local MUSA Staging Plan as part of the 2018 Lakeville Comprehensive Plan update based on its own projections for population, household and employment growth, remaining undeveloped land within the current MUSA, transportation system capacity and utility infrastructure. The Thrive MSP 2040 Plan and 2040 TPP emphasize a greater correlation between land use and transportation, especially with regards to support for the regional transit system. The commitments Lakeville has made to development densities along the Cedar Avenue corridor to support future Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) adopted as part of the 2008 Lakeville Comprehensive Plan are an example of this policy planning. However, whereas the current requirement of the 2030 Land Use Plan is to provide an average residential density of 3.0 dwelling units per net acre, the 2040 Land Use Plan will be required to demonstrate compliance with a 3 to 5 dwelling units per net acre density minimum requirement. Furthermore, there is also a minimum density requirement of 10 dwelling units per net acre within one-half mile walking distance of a designated Highway BRT station (1-35 BRT) or within one-quarter mile of an arterial BRT station (Cedar Avenue BRT), along with requirements for transit oriented design development standards. 2 ■ Regional transportation planning and investment will also reflect Thrive MSP 2040 goals for social equity (including age, race and incomes) and the objective of slowing climate change and mitigating its effects. Transportation Finance ■ The 2040 TPP outlines two funding scenarios to maintain and expand the existing regional transportation system designated as Current Revenue Scenario and Increased Revenue Scenario. ■ The Current Revenue Scenario projects continuation of existing funding sources with only inflationary increases in revenue. o The Metropolitan Council projects $84 Billion in revenues under the Current Revenue Scenario for the period from 2015 to 2040 as $42 Billion from local transportation, $11 Billion from State highways (Principal Arterials and A -Minor Arterials) and $31 Billion from transit. These revenues would be spent on local transportation, State highways and transit in equal proportion to the source of the revenue. o Under the Current Revenue Scenario, MNDoT will be able to meet the needs for maintenance of the current State highway system, but less than three percent of projected revenue would be available for capacity expansion to 2025. After 2025, MNDoT will not have sufficient revenue for system maintenance and no funding for capacity expansion. As a result, operations spending will decrease at the same time increases in maintenance spending is needed. o Funding for expansion of the transitway system is met to 2025, including full funding for the 1-35W South BRT (Orange Line) north of Lakeville and Cedar Avenue BRT (Red Line) into Lakeville at 181St Street. o The Metropolitan Council projects increased spending for local transportation operations and capacity projects through 2040. However, Metropolitan Council predicts that highway user tax revenue and federal revenue will grow at a rate less than inflation, which would require local governments to increase tax revenue for transportation or decrease spending. This will affect the ability of local governments to maintain the existing street system and increase capacity for roadways with a functional classification lower than an A -Minor Arterial. The Increased Revenue Scenario projects what level of money may be achieved through changes in laws, policies or decisions that increase local, state or federal funding sources needed to fund projected maintenance and expansion projects for State highways and transit within the Metropolitan Area. Projects identified as feasible within the Increased Revenue Scenario are illustrative of what might be undertaken but are not defined to be part of the adopted TPP. The Increased 3 Funding Scenario estimates a need for additional funding within the Metropolitan Area by 2040 of $10 Billion for State highways and $9 Billion for transit. No analysis is provided in terms of the needs increased revenue for local transportation maintenance and expansion. Direction and Investment Plans ■ The 2040 TPP outlines investment and direction plans as an implementation strategy for State highways, transit, trails, freight and air transportation systems. Highway investments will be directed towards managing and optimizing the existing system to the extent possible to mitigate congestion recognizing that vehicle trips are forecast to increase 28 percent by 2040. These investments are to be prioritized as follows: o Safety and security by operating, maintaining and rebuilding existing roadways. o Improves economic vitality. o Improves critical regional highway system connectivity. o Increases regional highway system time reliability. o Supports job/population growth forecasts and local comprehensive plans. o Regional balance of investment. The 2040 TTP outlines ten highway project types that will garner investment. The first six of these categories address system maintenance and operation but not capacity expansion. Capacity improvements may be considered as the existing system is being maintained through spot mobility improvements (i.e., lane striping, signal timing, etc.), expansion of MNPass lanes and site specific or access improvement projects. Support programs are also to be promoted including travel demand management (carpools, staggered work hours, telecommuting), transit, bicycle and pedestrian investments, and land use changes increasing density of housing and jobs. Investment in State highways included as part of the 2040 TPP do not include any projects directly benefiting Lakeville except traffic management technology improvements on 1-35 to CSAH 70 and spot mobility improvements at 1-35/CSAH 46. Extension of the 1-35 MNPass lanes to CSAH 70 is identified only under the Increased Revenue Scenario. The Transit Direction and Investment Plan for the 2040 TPP outlines designation of the existing park and ride bus facility on Cedar Avenue for expansion. Also included is planned completion of the Phase 2 Cedar Avenue BRT (Red Line) to 181St Street in Lakeville by 2019 with $74 Million in funding allocated. The City will be required to implement land use strategies outlined above along the Cedar Avenue corridor in anticipation of future extension of the BRT transitway south of 181St Street, which is being studied and could be funded under and the Increased Revenue Scenario along with extension of the 1-35 BRT (Orange Line). 4 The 2040 TPP elevates bicycle and transportation planning to a regional level and seeks to establish a regional arterial bicycle transportation system to be accomplished with on and off-street trails and planning for "complete streets". The regional bikeway system is to be supported by local trail and sidewalk systems within individual communities. Trail corridors within Lakeville identified as being part of the regional bikeway system include 1pava Avenue, Cedar Avenue, Pilot Knob Road and 185th Street. The direction and investment plan does not provide identification of specific funding allocation for improvement of the regional bikeway system but indicates coordination of the system will be reviewed as part of the update of local comprehensive plans for 2018. The Aviation Plan and Investments includes Airlake Airport in Lakeville as a minor regional airport, State intermediate airport and Federal reliever airport accommodating recreational, training and business uses. The 2040 TPP identifies that Airlake is currently over its landside capacity. An update of Airlake's Long Term Comprehensive Plan is to be completed in 2014 but the 2040 TPP identifies $9 Million in planned investments through 2030 to address landside capacity issues, planned relocation of Cedar Avenue and access to sanitary sewer and water utilities. The Canadian -Pacific and Progressive Rail lines in Lakeville are identified as part of the Metropolitan Freight System, which is primarily comprised of State highways and arterial roads utilizing truck traffic. The 2040 TPP states that communities with existing rail facilities should anticipate increased freight movement due to general economic growth and the continuing increase in freight generated by the Bakken Oil Fields in North Dakota and Montana without specifying any proposed projects or investment plans. Effect on Local Comprehensive Plan and Development The significance of the elevation of transportation planning as part of the Metropolitan Council's Thrive MSP 2040 regional plan will have major implications to the City of Lakeville. The 2018 Lakeville Comprehensive Plan will need to address the population, household and employment growth forecast for development in the City by 2040 in consideration of mandate changes in development patterns. These changes are required for consistency with Thrive MSP 2040 to support regional objectives for shifting transportation from streets and highways to transit. The City of Lakeville stated in the 2008 Comprehensive Plan its concern about the lack of planning and financing to improve regional transportation infrastructure necessary to support mandated development forecasts within the community. This concern was raised after a period during which Lakeville proactively addressed increasing traffic congestion by undertaking, at its cost, improvements to regional roadway systems and the City Council reached agreement with the Metropolitan Council to expand the Metropolitan Transit District to include Lakeville. And, the City is also actively participating in the planning for the proposed Interstate 35 and the Cedar Avenue BRT 5 Corridors. These projects benefit not only Lakeville residents and businesses, but transportation system users in adjacent developing cities and townships. However, these facility improvements alone will not be adequate to provide for a functional transportation system and capacity for Lakeville's forecasted growth through 2030, much less 2040. It is recommended that Lakeville continue to advocate for increased financial spending from Federal, State and regional governments as an absolute necessity to expand the capacity of regional transportation infrastructure, including transit and automobile and commercial vehicle roadways to support planned growth within Lakeville and the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area. Lakeville is seeking specific support to expand capacity on the north -south corridors of 1-35 and Cedar Avenue and the east -west corridors of CSAH 70 (between US 169 and TH 52), CSAH 60 from Lakeville to Farmington and points east to meet the demands of increasing traffic volumes in conjunction with extension of the 1-35 and Cedar Avenue BRT corridors. Failure to adequately plan and finance a regional transportation system for all modes of travel means that Lakeville's projected growth to 2040 will likely overburden the City's service capacity. Unless major investments within the Metropolitan Transportation System are identified to address the increasing traffic generated by forecasted growth within Lakeville and surrounding jurisdictions, the City Council will need to evaluate strategies to reduce traffic generation as part of the 2018 Comprehensive Plan update including, but not limited to, a decrease in the projected rate of development and/or a decrease in the density of development occurring within the City. CONCLUSION The City Council will discuss the 2040 TPP at a work session on 15 September 2014. City staff is seeking direction as to formal comments that the City of Lakeville should submit to the Metropolitan Council regarding the 2040 TPP as it relates to land use and transportation within the community.