HomeMy WebLinkAbout3. Housing Assessment MemoCity of Lakeville
Community & Economic Development
Memorandum
To: Economic Development Commission
From: Tina Goodroad, Community Development Director
Copy: Kati Bachmayer, Economic Development Coordinator
Justin Miller, City Administrator
Date: May 17, 2023
Subject: Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment
Maxfield Research completed the draft Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment.
Matt Mullins will be back at our meeting to present the findings and recommendations. We will have opportunity for discussion and questions at the end of the presentation. In
addition, if you want to share any comments/questions prior to the meeting staff will forward to Mr. Mullins. We would like to receive staff, City Council and EDC feedback by
June 1st for consideration in the final study that will be presented to the City Council this summer.
Action Requested: We request input and discussion from the EDC on the draft
Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment.
2823 Hamline Avenue N
Roseville, MN 55113
612.338.0012
www.maxfieldresearch.com
Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment
City of Lakeville, Minnesota
--DRAFT COPY--
Prepared For:
City of Lakeville
Lakeville, MN
April 2023
(main) 612-338-0012
2823 Hamline Avenue N, Roseville, MN 55113
www.maxfieldresearch.com
April 28, 2023
Ms. Tina Goodroad
Community Development Director
City of Lakeville
20195 Holyoke Avenue
Lakeville, MN 55044
Dear Ms. Goodroad:
Attached is the Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment for Lakeville, Minnesota conducted by
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. The study projects housing demand from 2023 through 2040,
and provides recommendations on the amount and type of housing that could be built in Lakeville to
satisfy demand from current and future residents over the next decades and beyond. The study identi-
fies a potential demand for over 9,000 new housing units through 2040. About 90% of the total demand
was for general occupancy housing, while senior housing accounted for 10% of the demand.
Overall, the housing market within all sectors has been strong during and through the COVID-19 pan-
demic. Lakeville has been one of the hottest submarkets in the Twin Cities Metro Area for new for-sale
construction as buyers have flocked to Lakeville for more space, excellent schools, and the hybrid work
environment that has resulted in increased mobility rates and distance from the office. As a result,
housing costs have escalated significantly since 2020; however, construction and sales velocity are tam-
ing down due to higher mortgage rates let by the Federal Reserve as they fight 40-year high inflation.
Rental vacancies and senior housing vacancies are both hovering around 3%; indicating pent-up demand
for new product. Another 700 units are in the development pipeline that will alleviate some of the low
vacancy rate pressure.
Detailed information regarding recommended housing concepts can be found in the Recommendations
& Conclusions section at the end of the report. If you have any questions or need additional information,
please contact us. We have enjoyed conducting this study for you.
Sincerely,
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC
Matt Mullins Max Perrault
Vice President Research Analyst
Attachment
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
KEY FINDINGS ........................................................................................................................ 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 3
PURPOSE & SCOPE ................................................................................................................ 8
Purpose and Scope of Study ............................................................................................. 8
Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 8
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................... 9
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 9
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections ............................................ 10
Age Distribution Trends .................................................................................................... 13
Household Income by Age of Householder ...................................................................... 16
Net worth .......................................................................................................................... 20
Tenure by Household Income ........................................................................................... 22
Tenure by Age of Householder ......................................................................................... 26
Household Type ................................................................................................................ 27
Tenure by Household Size ................................................................................................. 31
Diversity............................................................................................................................. 32
Mobility in the Past Year ................................................................................................... 34
Demographic Comparison to Peer Cities .......................................................................... 35
EMPLOYMENT ....................................................................................................................... 37
Employment Trends .......................................................................................................... 37
Employment Growth and Projections ............................................................................... 37
Resident Labor Force......................................................................................................... 38
Covered Employment and Wages by Industry .................................................................. 40
Inflow / Outflow Characteristics ....................................................................................... 42
Commuting Patterns ......................................................................................................... 44
Existing Business Mix by NAICS ......................................................................................... 45
Employer Survey Summary ............................................................................................... 46
Major Employers ............................................................................................................... 47
Employment Comparison to Peer Cities ........................................................................... 48
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................................. 50
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 50
Residential Construction Trends ....................................................................................... 50
American Community Survey ............................................................................................ 54
Age of Housing Stock......................................................................................................... 55
Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type) ......... 56
Owner Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status ....................................................... 58
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value ......................................................................... 59
Renter-Occupied Units by Contract Rent .......................................................................... 61
Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure .................................................................. 61
Housing Characteristics comparison to Peer Cities .......................................................... 63
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS .................................................................................................. 65
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 65
Overview of Rental Market Conditions ............................................................................. 65
General Occupancy Multifamily Rental Projects .............................................................. 68
Housing Choice Voucher Program .................................................................................... 78
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 80
Senior Housing Defined ..................................................................................................... 80
Senior Housing in Lakeville ............................................................................................... 81
FOR-SALE HOUSING ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 92
Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 92
Overview of For-Sale Housing Market Conditions ............................................................ 92
Existing vs New Construction Median Sales Price Comparison ........................................ 94
Home Resales by Price Point ............................................................................................. 95
Home Resales per Sq Ft ..................................................................................................... 98
Current Supply of Homes on the Market .......................................................................... 101
Months of Active Supply ................................................................................................... 103
New Construction Housing Activity .................................................................................. 105
Real Estate Professionals Survey Summary ....................................................................... 117
PLANNED AND PROPOSED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS ....................................................... 118
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY..................................................................................................... 121
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 121
Rent and Income Limits ..................................................................................................... 122
Housing Cost Burden.......................................................................................................... 125
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income ......................................................... 127
Industry Wages & Affordability ......................................................................................... 130
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 132
Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 132
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand ...................................................................... 132
Housing Demand Overview ............................................................................................... 133
Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing ........................................................................... 137
Estimated Demand for General Occupancy Rental Housing ............................................. 139
Estimated Demand for Subsidized/Affordable Active Adult Senior Housing .................... 141
Estimated Demand for Market Rate Active Adult Senior Housing .................................... 142
Estimated Demand for Independent Living Senior Housing.............................................. 144
Demand Estimate for Assisted Living Housing .................................................................. 145
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Housing .................................................................. 148
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................... 150
Introduction/Overall Housing Recommendations ............................................................ 150
Recommended Housing Product Types ............................................................................ 153
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES ...................................................................................... 160
APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................. 173
Definitions ......................................................................................................................... 174
MAPS
Page
Lakeville Regional Location .................................................................................................... 9
Lakeville Median Household Income by Census Tract .......................................................... 25
City of Lakeville Inflow / Outflow ........................................................................................... 43
Lakeville Single-Family Building Permits (2021 – Nov. 2022) ................................................ 52
Lakeville Multifamily Building Permits (2021 – Nov. 2022) ................................................... 53
Lakeville Multifamily Rental Properties ................................................................................. 77
Lakeville Senior Housing Properties ...................................................................................... 91
LIST OF TABLES
Table Number and Title Page
D1. Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections, City of Lakeville, 2000 to 2040 .
.............................................................................................................................................. 11
D2. Population Age Distribution, City of Lakeville, 2000 to 2028 ....................................... 14
D3. Household Income by Age of Householder, City of Lakeville, 2023 and 2028 ............. 17
D4. Net worth by Age of Householder, City of Lakeville, 2023 ........................................... 22
D5. Tenure by Household Income, City of Lakeville, 2020 .................................................. 23
D6. Tenure by Age of Householder, City of Lakeville, 2010 and 2020 ................................ 27
D7. Household Type, City of Lakeville, 2010 and 2020 ....................................................... 30
D8. Tenure by Household Size, City of Lakeville, 2010 and 2020 ....................................... 32
D9. Population Distribution by Race, City of Lakeville, 2010 and 2020 .............................. 33
D10. Mobility in the Past Year by Age for Current Residence, 2020 .................................... 35
D11. Peer City Summary, City of Lakeville & Peer Cities ....................................................... 36
E1. Employment Projections, City of Lakeville, 2000 - 2040 .............................................. 37
E2. Resident Employment, The City of Lakeville, 2012 to Nov. 2022 ................................. 39
E3. Quarterly Census of Emp. & Wages, City of Lakeville, Q2 2021 & Q2 2022 ................. 41
E4. Inflow / Outflow Characteristics, City of Lakeville, 2019 .............................................. 43
E5. Commuting Patterns, City of Lakeville, 2018 ................................................................ 45
E6. Business Summary, City of Lakeville, 2022 ................................................................... 46
E7. Major Employers, City of Lakeville, 2022 ...................................................................... 48
E8. Employment Peer Cities Comparison, City of Lakeville & Peer Cities .......................... 49
HC1. Residential Building Permit Trends, City of Lakeville, 2010 – Nov. 2022 ..................... 51
HC2. Age of Housing Stock, City of Lakeville, 2020 ............................................................... 55
HC3. Housing Units by Structure & Tenure, City of Lakeville, 2020 ...................................... 57
HC4. Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status, City of Lakeville, 2020 .............. 59
HC5. Owner-Occupied Units by Value, City of Lakeville, 2020.............................................. 60
HC6. Renter-Occupied Units by Contract Rent, City of Lakeville, 2020 ................................ 61
HC7. Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure, City of Lakeville, 2010 - 2020 ............. 62
HC8. Housing Characteristics Peer Cities Comparison, City of Lakeville & Peer Cities ......... 64
R1. Average Rents/Vacancies Trends, City of Lakeville, Q3 2021 & 2022………………………. 66
R2. General Occupancy Rental Properties, City of Lakeville, Dec. 2022 ............................. 69
R3. Rent Summary, City of Lakeville, Dec. 2022 ................................................................. 72
S1. Senior Housing Properties, City of Lakeville, Dec. 2022 ............................................... 82
S2. Services Comparison, City of Lakeville, Dec. 2022 ........................................................ 86
FS1. Resale Trends, Lakeville, 2005 to 2022 ......................................................................... 93
FS2. Median Sales Price, Lakeville, 2005 to 2022 ................................................................. 94
FS3. Resales by Price Point, Lakeville, 2022 ......................................................................... 97
FS4. Avg. and Median Sales Price Per Sq Ft, Lakeville, 2005 to 2022................................... 99
FS5. Median Sales Price Per Square Foot, Lakeville, 2005 to 2022 ...................................... 100
FS6. Homes Currently Listed For-Sale, March 2022 ............................................................. 102
FS7. Active Supply of Homes For-Sale, Lakeville, 2005 to 2022 ........................................... 104
FS8. Lot Size Analysis, Lakeville, 4th Quarter 2022 ............................................................... 107
FS9. New Const. Activity by Price Point - Detached, 4th Quarter 2022 ................................ 109
FS10. Subdivision & Lot Inventory - Detached, Lakeville, 4th Quarter 2022 .......................... 112
FS11. Subdivision & Lot Inventory - Attached, Lakeville, 4th Quarter 2022 ........................... 113
FS12. Sales Absorption by Subdivision, 4th Quarter 2021 to 4th Quarter 2022 ...................... 115
P1. Pending Housing Developments, City of Lakeville, Dec. 2022 ...................................... 119
HA1. MHFA/HUD Income and Rent Limits, Dakota County, 2022 ........................................ 123
HA2. Maximum Rent Based on Household Size and Area Median Income, Dakota Co ........ 124
HA3. Housing Cost Burden, City of Lakeville, 2020 .................................................................... 126
HA4. Housing Affordability - Based on Household Income, City of Lakeville ........................ 129
HA5. Housing Affordability - Based on Industry Wages, City of Lakeville ............................. 131
HD1. For-Sale Housing Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 to 2040 .......................................... 138
HD2. Rental Housing Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 to 2040 ............................................. 140
HD3. Subsidized/Affordable Active Adult Housing Demand , City of Lakeville, 2023 and 2030
....................................................................................................................................... 142
HD4. Market Rate Active Adult Housing Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 ...........................
and 2030 ....................................................................................................................... 143
HD5. Independent Living Rental Housing Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023
and 2030 ....................................................................................................................... 145
HD6. Assisted Living Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 and 2030 ........................................... 147
HD7. Memory Care Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 and 2030 ............................................ 149
CR1. Summary of Housing Demand, City of Lakeville, 2023 – 2023/2040 ........................... 150
CR2. Recommended Housing Development, City of Lakeville, 2023 to 2030/2040 ............. 152
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 1
This section highlights the key findings from the Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment
completed for the City of Lakeville. Calculations of projected housing demand are provided
through 2030 and recommendations for housing products to meet demand over t he short-term
are found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section of the report.
Key Findings
1. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, the Lakeville housing market and economy has fared
better than expected and outperformed many Metro Area communities. In fact, Lake-
ville’s location as a south metro suburban community with excellent schools boomed
during the past three years. Lakeville has been one of the hottest real estate markets
for new construction and consistently is within the top five communities for for-sale
housing development permits. At the same time, the unemployment rate hit a new rec-
ord low (1.6%) and the labor force has recovered all jobs lost from the pandemic.
2. Population growth this past decade exceeded last decade (+13,536 persons); although
the number of new households was slightly lower than last decade (+4,582 households).
Projections for this decade indicate a deacceleration of growth trends, however higher
than the Dakota County and 7-County Metro Area projected growth through 2030.
3. Lakeville’s near-term growth is led by the Millennials and Baby Boomers. The aging
baby boomer generation (ages 58 to 76 in 2022) is impacting the composition of Lake-
ville’s population. Younger seniors (ages 65 to 74) have exceptionally high growth rates
over the next five years (+31%). This shift will result in demand for alternative housing
products; both for-sale and rental housing types. At the same time, there is strong
growth in the older Millennial generation (+13%) that will be seeking home ownership
opportunities and quality rental housing.
4. Lakeville continues to be a strong single-family housing market as over 42% of the exist-
ing households are families with children, compared to 29% in the Metro Area. The
housing market appreciation is driven in-part by excellent schools that are sought after
and driving real estate activity from families with kids. Only 17% of Lakeville residents
are living along (single-tenant occupancy); however, that number will increase with the
number of rental apartments under construction and in the development pipeline.
5. Although Lakeville boasts an exceptionally low unemployment rate and increasing labor
force, wages are lower. Average weekly wages in Lakeville are 19% lower than Dakota
County and 29% lower than the Twin Cities Metro Area. As a result, Lakeville is a major
exporter of workers as Lakeville residents commute to other cities for higher earnings.
Roughly 74% of jobs in Lakeville are filled by non-Lakeville residents commuting into the
city for employment.
KEY FINDINGS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 2
6. For-sale housing costs are higher in Dakota County compared to the Metro Area. In ad-
dition, Lakeville housing costs are amongst the highest in Dakota County in-part because
of the high number of new construction homes driving up the overall median sales
price. The pandemic accelerated home price appreciation across the Twin Cities and
Lakeville home prices are up 28% since 2020. However, the Federal Reserve’s increase
of interest rates over the past year has slowed down the market in late 2022 and 2023
and price appreciation has topped out and is stabilizing. The rapid increase in mortgage
rates has priced many buyers out of the market and many sellers are unw illing to sell to
give up their low mortgage rate. As such, the market is slowly correcting after the mas-
sive pandemic run-up.
7. Given the strong housing demand in Lakeville since the pandemic, Lakeville has been ab-
sorbing lots at a feverish pace and has been one of the hottest new construction mar-
kets in the Twin Cities. Although we find Lakeville has enough lots in the short -term, a
variety of lot types will need to be platted and converted to finished lots to meet future
demand long-term. Furthermore, lot size compression will continue as builders/devel-
opers need to increase density to cover high infrastructure, inflation, and ever increas-
ing development costs in the housing sector.
8. The overall rental vacancy rate in Lakeville is 3.3% (excluding properties in initial lease
up). Rental vacancy rates are just under equilibrium for affordable housing (4.9%) and
are low for market rate housing (3.3%). However, there are roughly 900 units under
construction, approved, or proposed that will meet the dem and in the near-term and
vacancy rates should push higher with the new supply.
9. Despite the pandemic and impact on older adults, senior housing in Lakeville is posting a
low 3.3% vacancy rate compared to significancy higher vacancies in most Twin Cities
suburban communities. Affordable, active adult, and independent senior housing prod-
ucts have vacancy rates under 2%, whereas the more service-based assisted living and
memory properties are at equilibrium. Given the strong growth in younger seniors this
decade, demand will be highest for senior product targeting active seniors. Demand for
service-based senior housing will increase as the decade progresses.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 3
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC (i.e., “Maxfield Research”) was engaged by the City of
Lakeville to update the Comprehensive Housing Market Study for the City of Lakeville. The
Housing Market Study provides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that
should be developed in order to meet the needs of current and future households who choose
to reside in the City of Lakeville.
The scope of this study includes: an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics
of the City; a review of the characteristics of the existing housing stock, building permit trends,
and residential land supply; an analysis of the market condition for a variety of rental and for-
sale housing products; an analysis of housing affordability and development costs; and an as-
sessment of the need for housing by product type in the City. Recommendations on the num-
ber and types of housing products that should be considered in t he City are also supplied.
Demographic Analysis
• Between 2010 and 2020, the City of Lakeville’s population increased by 13,536 people
(24%), while households grew by 4,582 households (24%). Growth is expected to continue
through 2030, as Lakeville is projected to grow by 8,510 people (+12%) and 4,135 house-
holds (+18%).
• The largest increases in Lakeville’s population will come from younger seniors (ages 65 to
74), who are projected to grow by 25% and older seniors (75+), who are projected to grow
by 44%. At the same time, there is strong growth in the older Millennial generation (+13%).
• Overall, The City of Lakeville had an estimated median household income of $121,336 in
2023 and is projected to increase by 12.5% to $136,504 in 2028. Non-senior household me-
dian incomes peak in the 35 to 44 age group at $136,564. The median income for seniors
age 65+ is $77,469.
• Between 2010 and 2020, the homeownership rate decreased slightly from 87.7% to 87.2%
in the Lakeville, but still significantly higher than Dakota County home ownership rates
(75%. As households progress through their life cycle, housing needs change and the pro-
portion of renter households decrease significantly as households age out of their young
adult years. This trend is apparent as 56% of households under the age of 25 rent their
housing, while households between the ages of 35 and 64 were overwhelmingly homeown-
ers, as 91% owned their homes.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 4
Employment Trends
• The City of Lakeville had an unemployment rate of 1.6% in November 2022 which is slightly
lower than Dakota County (1.8%) and the State of Minnesota (2.0%). Additionally, the City’s
unemployment rate has decreased 3.8% from a peak of 5.4% in 2020, which was a result of
the global pandemic COVID-19.
• As of the 2nd Quarter 2022, the average weekly wage in the City of Lakeville is 17% lower
than the average weekly wages in Dakota County ($1,055 vs. $1,251).
• The City of Lakeville is a major job exporter as the ratio of people employed in the city (ap-
prox. 27%) is lower than those employed outside the city (63%). Additionally, there is an in-
terior flow of 4,694 residents (9.5%) that live and work in the City of Lakeville. Among Lake-
ville residents that commute elsewhere for employment, 12% commuted to Minneapo lis,
8% commuted to Burnsville, and 8% commuted to Bloomington.
• Of the roughly 18,134 workers who work in Lakeville, 26% live in the City of Lakeville. The
remaining 74% of the workers are commuting from mostly Farmington (7.5%), Apple Valley
(6.9%), and Burnsville (6%).
Housing Characteristics
• Residential construction in Lakeville is dominated by single-family homes as more than 60%
of building permits issued were for single-family dwellings between 2010 and November
2022. During this same time period, the City issued building permits for an average of 374
single-family units, 83 townhome (attached and detached) units, and 156 multifamily units.
Additionally, residential building peaked in 2020, as a recent high of 1,223 units were per-
mitted.
• The majority of the homes in Lakeville are relatively new as 66% of homes were built since
1990. Additionally, the highest proportion of homes were built either in the 1990s (28%) or
in the 2000s (25%).
• The predominant renter-occupied structure in Lakeville is single-unit structures, which ac-
count for 57% of all rental units. This includes single-family detached units (24%) and single-
family attached (33%). Larger structures of 50 units or more account for 15% of renter-occu-
pied units in Lakeville.
• The median owner-occupied home in the City of Lakeville is $325,400 in 2020. Approxi-
mately 30% of the owner-occupied housing stock in the City of Lakeville was estimated to
be valued between $300,000 and $399,999.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 5
• The median contract rent in Lakeville was $1,373 in 2020 compared to Dakota County,
which was $973. Approximately 71% of Lakeville renters paying cash have monthly rents at
or above $1,000/month.
Rental Housing Market Analysis
• In total, Maxfield Research inventoried 1,947 general occupancy multifamily rental units in
the Lakeville across 19 multifamily developments. At the time of the survey, there were
150 vacant units resulting in an overall vacancy rate of 7.7%. Typically, a healthy rental mar-
ket maintains a vacancy rate of roughly 5%, which promotes competitive rates, ensures ade-
quate consumer choice, and allows for unit turnover. The elevated number of vacancies are,
in part, due to the substantial number of new deliveries.
• Market rate projects make-up approximately 85% (1,660 units) and the overall vacancy rate
among market rate properties was 8.2%, but after excluding projects in initial lease-up, the
stabilized vacancy rate is 3.0%. Affordable properties make-up the remaining 15% (287
units) and posted a 4.9% vacancy rate.
Senior Housing Market Analysis
• There are 12 senior housing developments in Lakeville with a total of 861 units. There were
28 vacancies identified within the housing developments posting an overall vacancy rate of
3.3%. Generally, healthy senior housing vacancy rates range from 5% to 7% depending on
service level. Hence, the current senior housing market is tight in Lakeville with few open-
ings.
For-Sale Housing Market Analysis
• The average and median price of single-family homes in the City of Lakeville was approxi-
mately $546,740 and $519,103 respectively as of 2022. Over a five-year period in the City of
Lakeville, the average and median sales price increased 34% and 33%, respectively between
2018 and 2022.
• An average of 1,437 homes (single-family and multifamily) have been sold annually in the
City of Lakeville since 2018.
• The median resale price of single-family homes for sale in Lakeville was $519,103 as of
2022. Based on the median resale price, a household would need an income of about
$148,315 to $173,034 based on an industry standard of 3.0 to 3.5 times the median income.
About 36.6% of Lakeville households have annual incomes at or above $148,315.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 6
• Like most communities across the State of Minnesota; supply is at or less than two months
in both Lakeville and Dakota County. As such, home buyers have few options for purchasing
a home in the Lakeville area.
• As of the 4th Quarter 2022, there are 25 single-family subdivisions with available lots in Lak-
eville. Based on these subdivisions, there are about 530 vacant developed lots. Additionally,
there are another 1,355 future lots in the same subdivisions.
Planned and Proposed Housing Developments
• As of December 2022, there are 11 pending for-sale developments, totaling 566 single-fam-
ily homes, 198 attached townhomes, and 232 detached townhomes . Additionally, there are
three pending rental developments totaling 699 units and two senior projects totaling 413
units.
Housing Demand Analysis
• Based on our calculations, demand exists in the City of Lakeville for the following general
occupancy product types between 2023 and 2040:
o Market Rate Rental 607 units
o Affordable Rental 400 units
o Subsidized Rental 160 units
o For-Sale Single-Family 4,851 units
o For-Sale Multifamily 2,166 units
• In addition, we find demand for multiple senior housing product types. By 20 30, demand in
Lakeville for senior housing is forecast for the following:
o Active Adult (Ownership) 239 units
o Active Adult (Market Rate Rental) 459 units
o Active Adult Subsidized 40 units
o Independent Living 103 units
o Memory Care 59 units
Recommendations and Conclusions
• Based on the finding of our analysis and demand calculations, the following char provides a
summary of the recommended development concepts by product type for the City of Lake-
ville through 2040. Detailed findings are described in the Conclusions and Recommenda-
tions section of the report.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 7
Purchase Price/
Monthly Rent Range¹
Owner-Occupied Homes (2023 to 2040)
Single Family 2
Entry-level $400,000 - $500,000 550 -650 800 -900
Move-up $550,000 - $650,000 800 -900 1,150 -1,250
Executive $650,000+450 -550 600 -700
Total 1,800 -2,100 2,550 -2,850
Townhomes/Twinhomes/Villas 2
Attached Townhomes $350,000 - $475,000 375 -425 525 -575
Twinhomes / Detached Townhomes/Villas $425,000+450 -500 650 -700
Total 825 -925 1,175 -1,275
Owner-Occupied Total 2,625 -3,025 3,725 -4,125
General Occupancy Rental Housing (2023 to 2040)
Market Rate Rental Housing
Apartment-style $1,250/Studio - $2,500/3BR 160 -180 240 -260
Townhomes $2,000/2BR - $2,900/3BR 90 -100 100 -120
Total 250 -280 340 -380
Affordable Rental Housing
Apartment-style Moderate Income3 160 -180 220 -240
Townhomes Moderate Income3 80 -90 80 -90
Total 240 -270 300 -330
Renter-Occupied Total 490 -550 640 -710
Senior Housing (i.e. Age Restricted) (2023 to 2030)
Active Adult Ownership / Co-op4 $200,000+-
Active Adult Market Rate Rental $1,800/1BR - $2,500/2BR -
Independent Living $2,400+ per month -
Memory Care $5,000+ per month -
Senior Total -
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
3 Affordablity subject to income guidelines per Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA).
4 Senior Cooperative assumption cost is based on share cost = 40% of its actual value.
Note - Recommended development does not coincide with total demand. The City of Lakeville may not be able to accommodate all
recommended housing types based on a variety of factors (i.e. development constraints, land availability, etc.)
2 Recommendations include the absorption of existing previously platted lots. Most entry-level demand will be accommodated through the
resale market.
250 350
80 100
40 50
520 700
¹ Pricing in 2023 dollars. Pricing can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Units Units
2023 - 2030
150 200
RECOMMENDED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 - 2030/2040
2023 - 2030 2030 - 2040
PURPOSE & SCOPE
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 8
Purpose and Scope of Study
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC. was engaged by the City of Lakeville to conduct a Com-
prehensive Housing Needs Analysis for Lakeville, Minnesota. The Housing Needs Analysis pro-
vides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that should be de veloped in order
to meet the needs of current and future households who choose to reside in the C ity.
The scope of this study includes: an analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics
of the City; a review of the characteristics of the existing housing stock and building permit
trends; an analysis of the market condition for a variety of rental, senior, and for -sale housing
products; and an assessment of the need for housing by product type in the City. Recommenda-
tions on the number and types of housing products that should be considered in the City are
also supplied.
Methodology
During the course of the study a number of resources were utilized to obtain information in the
analysis. The primary data and information sources include the following:
• U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey
• Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED)
• United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)
• ESRI
• CoStar, Inc.
• Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (MLS)
• City of Lakeville and associated agencies
• Dakota County and associated agencies
• Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD)
• Minnesota Geospatial Commons
• Metropolitan Council
• Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA)
• Novogradac
• Phone calls/emails from property owners/managers, realtors, brokers, develop-
ers, employers, among others, etc.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 9
Introduction
This section of the report examines factors related to the current and future demand for both
owner- and renter-occupied housing in Lakeville, Minnesota. It includes an analysis of popula-
tion and household growth trends and projections, projected age distribution, household in-
come, net worth, household types, household tenure, and peer city comparison. A review of
these characteristics will provide insight into the demand for various types of housing in the
City of Lakeville.
Regional Location
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 10
Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections
Table D-1 presents the population and household growth trends and projections from 2000 to
2040. The 2000 to 2020 data is from the U.S. Census. Estimate and projection data is calcu-
lated from the Minnesota State Demographer; ESRI (a national demographics service provider);
and the Metropolitan Council, with adjustments calculated by Maxfield Research and Consult-
ing LLC. The adjustments are intended to reflect growth that will likely be realize d after consid-
ering the impact of the current housing market, covered employment, and review of building
permit trends.
Population
• The City of Lakeville’s population grew by 13,536 people (24%), while Dakota County’s pop-
ulation increased by 10% between 2010 and 2020. The Twin Cities Metro Area by 11% dur-
ing that same time period.
• In 2010, the City of Lakeville accounts for approximately 14% of Dakota County’s popula-
tion. In 2020, these figures have increased slightly to 15.8%. By 2040, the City of Lakeville is
projected to account for 16.5% of Dakota County’s population.
• We project that between 2020 and 2030, the City of Lakeville will increase by approximately
8,510 people (12%), while Dakota County is forecast to grow by 9.3%. By 2040, we project
the City of Lakeville will increase by another 10% (8,000 people) between 2030 and 2040.
43,128
55,954
69,490 72,043
76,298 78,000
86,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040
Population Growth Trends
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 11
Estimate
2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040 No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
City of Lakeville 43,128 55,954 69,490 72,043 76,298 78,000 86,000 12,826 29.7%13,536 24.2%8,510 12.2%
Dakota County 355,904 398,552 439,882 452,187 472,696 480,900 521,580 42,648 12.0%41,330 10.4%41,018 9.3%
Seven-County Metro Area 2,642,062 2,849,567 3,163,104 3,227,620 3,286,438 3,451,000 3,653,000 207,505 7.9%313,537 11.0%287,896 9.1%
City of Lakeville 13,609 18,683 23,265 24,506 26,573 27,400 32,000 5,074 37.3%4,582 24.5%4,135 17.8%
Dakota County 131,151 152,060 168,008 174,456 185,202 189,500 207,040 20,909 15.9%15,948 10.5%21,492 12.8%
Seven-County Metro Area 1,021,456 1,117,749 1,239,526 1,264,908 1,287,328 1,351,000 1,447,000 96,293 9.4%121,777 10.9%111,474 9.0%
City of Lakeville 3.17 2.99 2.99 2.94 2.87 2.85 2.69
Dakota County 2.71 2.62 2.62 2.59 2.55 2.54 2.52
Seven-County Metro Area 2.59 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.52
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Metropolitan Council; MN State Demographic Center; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
PERSONS PER HOUSEHOLD (PPH)
TABLE D-1
POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLD GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2000 to 2040
Change
POPULATION
HOUSEHOLDS
U.S. Census Forecast 2000 to 2010 2010 to 2020 2020 to 2030
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 12
Households
• Household growth trends are typically a more accurate indicator of housing needs than
population growth since a household is, by definition, an occupied housing unit. However,
additional demand can come from changing demographics of the population base, which
results in demand for different housing products.
• Lakeville gained 4,582 households (24.5%) during the 2010s, increasing its household base
to 23,265 households as of 2020. Dakota County’s households grew by 10%, while the Twin
Cities Metro Area household base increased by 11% between 2010 and 2020.
• We project household growth in the City Lakeville to increase by 4,135 households (17.8%)
between 2020 and 2030, while households in Dakota County are projected to increase by
13%. By 2040, households in Lakeville are forecasted to grow to 32,000, an increase of 17%.
Persons Per Household
• The City of Lakeville observed no change in persons per household between 2010 and 2020.
However, we believe the household growth rates will be higher than population growth
rates over the next decade, thus decreasing the number of persons per households.
• In 2010, the average household size was 2.99 in Lakeville and 2.62 in Dakota County. Larger
households are characteristically found in suburban communities. We project that the City
13,609
18,683
23,265 24,506
26,573 27,400
32,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040
Household Growth Trends
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 13
of Lakeville will have an average household size of 2.85 by 2030, decreasing further to 2.69
by 2040.
Age Distribution Trends
Age distribution affects demand for different types of housing since needs and desires change
at different stages of the life cycle. Table D-2 shows the distribution of persons within nine age
cohorts for the City of Lakeville, Dakota County, and the Twin Cities Metro Area in 2000 and
2010 with estimates for 2023 and projections for 2028. The 2000 and 2010 age distribution is
from the U.S. Census Bureau. Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC derived the 2023 and 2028
projections by adjustments made to data obtained from ESRI, the State of Minnesota, and the
Metropolitan Council. The following are key points from the table.
• Between 2000 and 2010, the majority of growth in Lakeville occurred in the middle-aged
population (ages 45 to 64) and those under 20 years-olds. Between 2023 and 2028, the larg-
est growth is expected in those ages 35 to 44 (1,362 people) and 65 to 74 (1,287 people).
• The City of Lakeville’s population of 20 to 34 year olds, which consists primarily of renters
and first-time homebuyers, grew by 50% (4,461 people) between 2010 and 2023, but is only
expected to increase by 4% (530 people) between 2023 and 2028. This is primarily due to a
decrease in the 20 to 24 age group (-364 people) between 2023 and 2028.
3.17
2.99 2.99 2.94 2.87 2.85
2.692.71 2.62 2.62 2.59 2.55 2.54 2.52
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2000 2010 2020 2023 2028 2030 2040
Persons Per Household Trends
Lakeville Dakota Co.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 14
• Those ages 65 plus age cohorts are projected to grow by 2,337 people (31%) between 2023
and 2028. The growth in these age cohorts can be primarily attributed to the baby boom
generation aging into their young senior years.
• The social changes that occurred with the aging of the baby boom generation, such as
higher divorce rates, higher levels of education, and lower birth rates has led to a greater
variety of lifestyles than existed in the past – not only among the baby boomers, but also
among their parents and children. The increased variety of lifestyles has fueled demand for
alternative housing products to the single-family homes. Seniors, in particular, and middle-
Estimate Projection
2000 2010 2023 2028
Age No.No.No.No.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
City of Lakeville
Under 20 16,530 19,142 21,236 21,845 2,612 15.8 2,094 10.9 610 2.9
20 to 24 1,561 2,401 3,800 3,436 840 53.8 1,399 58.3 -364 -9.6
25 to 34 6,554 6,558 9,620 10,514 4 0.1 3,062 46.7 894 9.3
35 to 44 9,757 9,513 10,367 11,729 -244 -2.5 854 9.0 1,362 13.1
45 to 54 5,215 10,031 10,234 9,719 4,816 92.3 203 2.0 -515 -5.0
55 to 64 2,285 5,097 9,287 9,218 2,812 123.1 4,190 82.2 -69 -0.7
65 to 74 838 2,226 5,109 6,395 1,388 165.6 2,883 129.5 1,287 25.2
75 to 84 320 769 1,906 2,796 449 140.3 1,137 147.9 890 46.7
85 and over 68 232 485 645 164 241.2 253 108.9 160 33.0
Subtotal 43,128 55,969 72,043 76,298 12,841 29.8 16,074 22.3 4,255 5.9
Dakota County
Under 20 112,231 113,912 116,773 119,487 1,681 1.5 2,713 2.3 2,713 2.3
20 to 24 19,817 21,839 24,303 24,159 2,022 10.2 -144 -0.6 -144 -0.6
25 to 34 54,030 54,279 61,151 61,972 249 0.5 822 1.3 822 1.3
35 to 44 68,194 56,912 63,665 69,004 -11,282 -16.5 5,339 8.4 5,339 8.4
45 to 54 49,249 66,334 57,484 58,255 17,085 34.7 771 1.3 771 1.3
55 to 64 26,137 45,460 60,846 57,031 19,323 73.9 -3,816 -6.3 -3,816 -6.3
65 to 74 14,842 22,433 41,756 48,925 7,591 51.1 7,169 17.2 7,169 17.2
75 to 84 8,502 12,315 18,982 25,562 3,813 44.8 6,581 34.7 6,581 34.7
85 and over 2,902 5,068 7,227 8,301 2,166 74.6 1,074 14.9 1,074 14.9
Subtotal 355,904 398,552 452,187 472,696 42,648 12.0 20,509 4.5 20,509 4.5
7-County Metro Area
Under 20 768,028 774,287 116,773 119,487 6,259 0.8 2,713 2.3 2,713 2.3
20 to 24 173,732 190,135 24,303 24,159 16,403 9.4 -144 -0.6 -144 -0.6
25 to 34 411,155 420,311 61,151 61,972 9,156 2.2 822 1.3 822 1.3
35 to 44 469,324 391,324 63,665 69,004 -78,000 -16.6 5,339 8.4 5,339 8.4
45 to 54 363,592 440,753 57,484 58,255 77,161 21.2 771 1.3 771 1.3
55 to 64 200,980 326,007 60,846 57,031 125,027 62.2 -3,816 -6.3 -3,816 -6.3
65 to 74 130,615 163,425 41,756 48,925 32,810 25.1 7,169 17.2 7,169 17.2
75 to 84 90,292 97,442 18,982 25,562 7,150 7.9 6,581 34.7 6,581 34.7
85 and over 34,338 45,883 7,227 8,301 11,545 33.6 1,074 14.9 1,074 14.9
Total 2,642,056 454,521 452,187 472,696 207,511 7.9 20,509 4.5 20,509 4.5
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE D-2
POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2000 to 2028
2010-2023
Change
2000-2010 2023-2028
Census
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 15
aged persons tend to do more traveling and participate in more activities than previous
generations, and they increasingly prefer maintenance-free housing that enables them to
spend more time on activities outside the home.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Under 20 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 and
over
Population Age Distribution
City of Lakeville
2010 2023 2028
2.9%
-9.6%
9.3%
13.1%
-5.0%
-0.7%
25.2%
46.7%
33.0%
2.3%
-0.6%
1.3%
8.4%
1.3%
-6.3%
17.2%
34.7%
14.9%
-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%
Under 20
20 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 54
55 to 64
65 to 74
75 to 84
85 and over
Population Growth by Age Group (2023 -2028)
Lakeville Dakota County
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 16
Household Income by Age of Householder
The estimated distribution of household incomes in the City of Lakeville for 2023 and 2028 are
shown in Tables D-3. The data was estimated by Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC based
on income trends provided by ESRI. The data helps ascertain the demand for different housing
products based on the size of the market at specific cost levels.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development defines affordable housing costs as 30% of
a household’s adjusted gross income. For example, a household with the average income of
$50,000 per year would be able to afford a monthly housing cost of about $1,250. Maxfield Re-
search and Consulting LLC uses a figure of 25% to 30% for younger households and 40% or
more for seniors, since seniors generally have lower living expenses and can often sell their
homes and use the proceeds toward rent payments.
A generally accepted standard for affordable owner-occupied housing is that a typical house-
hold can afford to pay 3.0 to 3.5 times their annual income on a single-family home. Thus, a
$50,000 income would translate to an affordable single-family home of $150,000 to $175,000.
The higher end of this range assumes that the person has adequate funds for down payment
and closing costs, but also does not include savings or equity in an existing home which would
allow them to purchase a higher priced home.
• The City of Lakeville has an estimated median household income of $121,336 in 2023. It is
projected to increase over the next five years to $136,504 in 2028 (12.5%).
• With a household income of $116,412, a younger household in Lakeville (the median house-
hold income for the 25 to 34 cohort) could afford a monthly housing cost of about $2,910
based on an allocation of 30% of income toward housing. A senior household (75+) in Lake-
ville with an income of $49,279 (the median household income of seniors 75+) could afford
a monthly housing cost of $1,643, based on an allocation of 40% of income toward housing.
• By comparison, the median income for the City of Lakeville ($121,336) is 18% higher com-
pared to Dakota County ($101,032) and a 25% higher than the Metro Area ($94,175).
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 17
Non-Senior Households
• In 2023, 1.9% of the non-senior (under age 65) households in Lakeville had incomes under
$15,000 (385 households). All of these households would be eligible for subsidized rental
housing. Another 1.2% of Lakeville’s non-senior households had incomes between $15,000
and $24,999 (244 households). Many of these households would qualify for subsidized
housing, but many could also afford “affordable” or older market rate rentals. If housing
Total Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Less than $15,000 664 33 72 64 97 119 130 149
$15,000 to $24,999 475 13 50 36 50 95 114 117
$25,000 to $34,999 883 43 129 100 84 162 176 189
$35,000 to $49,999 1,469 61 256 199 186 276 234 258
$50,000 to $74,999 2,224 95 363 272 324 392 505 272
$75,000 to $99,999 3,190 88 662 613 565 640 468 153
$100,000 to $149,999 6,871 80 1,211 1,637 1,667 1,472 688 116
$150,000 to $199,999 4,215 36 688 1,010 1,177 945 295 64
$200,000+4,515 23 574 1,137 1,397 1,039 287 59
Total 24,506 471 4,004 5,067 5,547 5,141 2,898 1,377
Median Income $121,336 $73,516 $116,412 $136,564 $144,716 $127,235 $90,863 $49,279
Less than $15,000 489 24 44 49 55 58 96 163
$15,000 to $24,999 320 8 31 18 19 45 79 119
$25,000 to $34,999 554 28 68 52 34 79 116 177
$35,000 to $49,999 976 39 161 117 102 139 157 262
$50,000 to $74,999 2,021 80 298 216 234 300 497 395
$75,000 to $99,999 3,249 96 656 591 470 580 592 265
$100,000 to $149,999 7,503 102 1,375 1,774 1,518 1,482 995 257
$150,000 to $199,999 5,754 57 1,011 1,423 1,349 1,198 542 174
$200,000+5,708 28 775 1,524 1,510 1,211 503 157
Total 26,573 461 4,419 5,764 5,290 5,092 3,578 1,969
Median Income $136,504 $88,399 $132,176 $155,258 $159,221 $146,749 $111,011 $65,959
Less than $15,000 -175 -8 -28 -15 -42 -61 -34 14
$15,000 to $24,999 -155 -5 -19 -17 -30 -51 -35 2
$25,000 to $34,999 -329 -15 -61 -48 -50 -83 -60 -12
$35,000 to $49,999 -493 -22 -95 -82 -84 -138 -77 4
$50,000 to $74,999 -203 -15 -64 -56 -90 -92 -8 123
$75,000 to $99,999 59 7 -6 -22 -95 -61 124 112
$100,000 to $149,999 632 22 164 137 -150 11 307 140
$150,000 to $199,999 1,539 21 322 413 171 253 247 111
$200,000+1,193 5 202 387 113 172 216 98
Total 2,067 -10 415 697 -257 -49 679 592
Median Income $15,168 $14,883 $15,763 $18,694 $14,506 $19,514 $20,147 $16,680
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2023
2028
Change - 2023 to 2028
TABLE D-3
HOUSEHOLD INCOME BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 and 2028
Age of Householder
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 18
costs absorb 30% of income, households with incomes of $15,000 to $25,000 could afford
to pay $375 to $625 per month.
• In most areas, household median incomes peak in the 35 to 44 age group and that group is
usually considered to be in their peak earning years. Similar to many areas, m edian in-
comes for households in Lakeville peak at $136,564 for the 35 to 44 age group in 2023. The
45 to 54 age group has a median income of $144,716 in 2023. By 2028, the median income
for the 35 to 44 and the 45 to 54 age groups are projected to increase to $155,258 (+14%)
and $159,221 (+10%) respectively. The 55 to 64 age group is projected to increase to
$146,749 (15%) by 2028.
Senior Households
• The oldest householders are likely to have lower incomes in 2023. In Lakeville, 4% of house-
holds ages 65 to 74 had incomes below $15,000, compared to 11% of households ages 75
and over. Many of these low-income older senior households rely solely on social security
benefits. Typically, younger seniors have higher incomes due to the fact they are still able
to work or are married couples with two pensions or higher social security benefits. The
2023 median income for Lakeville householders age 65 to 74 and 75+ are $90,863, and
$49,279, respectively.
• Generally, senior households with incomes greater than $40,000 can afford market rate
senior housing in Lakeville. Based on a 40% allocation of income for housing, this translates
to monthly rents of at least $1,333. About 3,236 senior households in Lakeville (76% of sen-
ior households) have incomes above $40,000 in 2023.
• The median income for seniors age 65+ in Lakeville is $77,469 in 2023. It is projected to in-
crease by $17,548 (+23%) to $95,017 by 2028.
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 19
-175
-155
-329
-493
-203
59
632
1,539
1,193
-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Less than $15,000
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000+
Numeric Change in Households by Income Base
2023 -2028
$73,516
$116,412
$136,564
$144,716
$127,235
$90,863
$49,279
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+Median IncomeNo. of HouseholdsAge of Householder
Growth & Income Trends by Age of Householder
City of Lakeville: 2023 & 2028
2023 2028 2023 Median Income
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 20
Net Worth
Table D-4 shows household net worth in Lakeville in 2023. Simply stated, net worth is the dif-
ference between assets and liabilities, or the total value of assets after the debt is subtracted.
The data was compiled and estimated by ESRI based on the Survey of Consumer Finances and
Federal Reserve Board data.
• The City of Lakeville had an average net worth of $1,753,425 in 2023 and a median net
worth of $453,185. Median net worth is generally a more accurate depiction of wealth than
the average figure. A few households with very large net worth can significantly skew the
average. Communities with high levels of farming equipment and land assets tend to also
increase the average and median net worth in those areas.
• Similar to household income, net worth increases as households age and decreases after
they pass their peak earning years and move into retirement. Median and average net
worth usually peak for older adults and seniors with a median net worth of $792,491 for
those ages 55 to 64 in Lakeville. Older adults and senior households usually have a higher
net worth also due to their 401k’s, and other retirement funds. Also, senior households
that continue to have higher average net worth could be an indication of farm equipment
and land assets being primarily retained by households in senior age cohorts.
$73,516 $116,412 $136,564 $144,716 $127,235 $90,863 $49,279 $121,336 $54,438 $96,089 $114,453 $120,757 $110,827 $79,733 $46,093 $101,032 $48,228 $89,422 $111,547 $118,843 $107,557 $79,152 $48,537 $94,175 $0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+Total
Household Income by Age Comparison (2023)
Lakeville Dakota Co.Metro Area
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 21
• Households often delay purchasing homes and instead choose to rent until they acquire suf-
ficient assets to cover the costs of a down payment and closing costs associated with home
ownership. This will be especially true in the short -term as tightening lending requirements
make mortgages with little or no down payments more difficult to obt ain in today’s mort-
gage lending environment.
$453,185$91,795$158,361$417,848$614,519$792,491$631,209$356,587$285,939$20,327$76,457$244,666$405,375$546,939$534,404$328,413$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
Total Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Median Net Worth by Age of Householder (2023)
Lakeville Dakota County
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 22
Tenure by Household Income
Table D-5 shows household tenure by income for the City of Lakeville in 2020. Data is an esti-
mate from the American Community Survey. Household tenure information is important to as-
sess the propensity for owner-occupied or renter-occupied housing options based on house-
hold affordability. As stated earlier, the Department of Housing and Urban Development deter-
mines affordable housing as not exceeding 30% of the household’s income. It is important to
note that the higher the income, the lower percentage a household typically allocates to hous-
ing. Many lower income households, as well as many young and senior households; spend
more than 30% of their income, while middle-aged households in their prime earning years typ-
ically allocate 20% to 25% of their income.
Total Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 -74 75+
Less than $15,000 1,521 61 484 259 190 207 221 100
$15,000 to $34,999 462 62 148 77 52 41 64 20
$35,000 to $49,999 293 20 132 37 20 38 37 10
$50,000 to $99,999 1,790 124 678 393 192 175 97 130
$100,000 to $149,999 1,529 79 492 264 299 226 88 82
$150,000 to $249,999 2,951 76 800 613 545 490 243 185
$250,000 or more 15,959 51 1,269 3,425 4,250 3,964 2,150 850
Subtotal 24,506 471 4,004 5,067 5,547 5,141 2,898 1,377
Median Net Worth $453,185 $91,795 $158,361 $417,848 $614,519 $792,491 $631,209 $356,587
Average Net Worth $1,753,425 $138,681 $266,137 $1,318,922 $2,331,842 $2,856,679 $2,026,624 $1,205,929
Less than $15,000 23,544 2,207 7,937 4,274 2,086 2,844 2,669 1,527
$15,000 to $34,999 6,750 854 1,961 1,673 675 586 770 231
$35,000 to $49,999 3,257 168 999 625 378 495 410 182
$50,000 to $99,999 16,393 845 4,754 3,651 2,211 2,176 1,171 1,586
$100,000 to $149,999 11,406 506 2,735 2,120 2,333 1,903 835 973
$150,000 to $249,999 20,398 318 3,723 4,863 4,019 3,393 1,803 2,278
$250,000 or more 92,708 147 5,193 16,426 20,268 23,452 17,465 9,757
Subtotal 174,456 5,045 27,302 33,632 31,971 34,849 25,124 16,534
Median Net Worth $285,939 $20,327 $76,457 $244,666 $405,375 $546,939 $534,404 $328,413
Average Net Worth $1,407,861 $63,751 $175,622 $956,587 $1,762,771 $2,379,605 $1,904,443 $1,281,702
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Data Note: Net Worth is total household wealth minus debt, secured and unsecured. Net worth includes home equity, equity in
pension plans, net equity in vehicles, IRAs and Keogh accounts, business equity, interest-earning assets and mutual fund shares,
stocks, etc. Examples of secured debt include home mortgages and vehicle loans; examples of unsecured debt include credit card
debt, certain bank loans, and other outstanding bills. Forecasts of net worth are based on the Survey of Consumer Finances,
Federal Reserve Board. Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.
City of Lakeville
Dakota County
TABLE D-4
NET WORTH BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023
Age of Householder
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 23
• Typically, as income increases, so does the rate of homeownership. This can be seen in the
City of Lakeville, where the homeownership rate increases from 56% of households with in-
comes below $15,000 to 95% of households with incomes above $150,000.
• In 2020, the median incomes of owners was $119,152 while the median incomes of renters
was $55,772 in Lakeville. Owner incomes are an estimated 12% higher than owner incomes
in Dakota County ($105,124), while renter incomes are 13% higher when compared to Da-
kota County ($49,121).
• A portion of renter households that are referred to as lifestyle renters, or those who are fi-
nancially able to own but choose to rent, have household incomes above $50,000 (about
52% of the City of Lakeville’s renters in 2020). Households with incomes below $15,000 are
typically a market for deep subsidy rental housing (about 12% of the City of Lakeville’s
renters in 2020).
No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Less than $15,000 437 56.3 339 43.7 3,027 39.6 4,612 60.4 24,096 30.5 54,999 69.5
$15,000 to $24,999 288 53.8 247 46.2 3,773 43.4 4,913 56.6 27,201 39.2 42,259 60.8
$25,000 to $34,999 634 59.9 425 40.1 5,308 55.1 4,322 44.9 35,552 45.9 41,982 54.1
$35,000 to $49,999 1,236 76.4 382 23.6 9,755 58.6 6,892 41.4 65,007 52.5 58,922 47.5
$50,000 to $74,999 2,311 82.8 481 17.2 17,686 67.6 8,490 32.4 122,408 62.8 72,465 37.2
$75,000 to $99,999 2,597 85.4 443 14.6 18,128 77.8 5,162 22.2 118,902 72.7 44,596 27.3
$100,000 to $149,999 5,532 95.5 263 4.5 30,957 87.7 4,324 12.3 193,204 83.2 38,975 16.8
$150,000+6,869 95.3 336 4.7 34,116 94.5 1,998 5.5 239,519 92.1 20,669 7.9
Total 19,904 87.2 2,916 12.8 122,750 75.1 40,713 24.9 825,889 68.8 374,867 31.2
Median Household Income
Source: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Service; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Renter
TABLE D-5
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD INCOME
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
City of Lakeville Dakota County Twin Cities Metro Area
Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner
$105,124 $49,121 $104,619 $47,198$119,152 $55,772
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 24
56%54%60%
76%83%85%
95%95%
44%46%40%
24%17%15%
5%5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Less than
$15K
$15K to
$24.9K
$25K to
$34.9K
$35K to
$49.9K
$50K to
$74.9K
$75K to
$99.9K
$100K to
$149.9K
$150K+
Tenure by Household Income
City of Lakeville (2020)
Owner Renter
$119,152$105,124$104,619$55,772$49,121$47,198$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
Lakeville Dakota Co.Metro Area
Household Income by Tenure (2020)
Owner Renter
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 25
Lakeville Median Household Income by Census Tract
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 26
Tenure by Age of Householder
Table D-6 shows the number of owner and renter households in the City of Lakeville by age
group in 2010 and 2020. This data is useful in determining demand for certain types of housing
since housing preferences change throughout an individual’s life cycle.
• In 2010, 87.7% of all households in the City of Lakeville owned their housing. By 2020, that
percentage declined slightly to 87.2%. The number of owner households in Dakota County
decreased by 1.4% between 2010 and 2020.
• As households progress through their life cycle, housing needs change. The proportion of
renter households decreases significantly as households’ age out of their young-adult
years. However, by the time households reach their senior years, rental housing often be-
comes a more viable option than homeownership, reducing the responsibility of mainte-
nance and a financial commitment.
• In 2020, 56% of the Market Area’s households Under 25 rented their housing, compared to
15% of households between the ages of 25 and 34. Householders between 35 and 64 were
overwhelmingly homeowners, as 91% owned their homes.
44%
85%87%90%
96%
90%
82%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Under 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
Household Tenure by Age of Householder
City of Lakeville (2020)
Owner Renter Rental Rate
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 27
Household Type
Table D-7 shows a breakdown of the type of households present in the City of Lakeville in 2010
and 2020. The data is useful in assessing housing demand since the household composition of-
ten dictates the type of housing needed and preferred.
• Between 2010 and 2020, the City of Lakeville experienced an increase in all household
types, except for Married without Children household, which declined by 30 households
(0.5%). Significant increases occurred among Living Alone households (48%) and Married
with Children households (34%).
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 25 Own 173 55.6 171 44.1 1,175 23.7 1,257 26.2
Rent 138 44.4 217 55.9 3,789 76.3 3,533 73.8
Total 311 100.0 388 100.0 4,964 100.0 4,790 100.0
25-34 Own 2,308 79.8 2,869 84.6 15,464 60.6 13,480 56.0
Rent 584 20.2 524 15.4 10,044 39.4 10,576 44.0
Total 2,892 100.0 3,393 100.0 25,508 100.0 24,056 100.0
35-44 Own 4,309 88.7 4,167 86.7 23,990 77.8 23,179 75.5
Rent 548 11.3 641 13.3 6,831 22.2 7,532 24.5
Total 4,857 100.0 4,808 100.0 30,821 100.0 30,711 100.0
45-54 Own 5,210 91.9 4,895 89.8 32,020 84.6 26,324 81.6
Rent 460 8.1 555 10.2 5,823 15.4 5,950 18.4
Total 5,670 100.0 5,450 100.0 37,843 100.0 32,274 100.0
55-64 Own 2,746 92.6 4,801 95.6 23,605 87.0 28,438 84.8
Rent 221 7.4 222 4.4 3,514 13.0 5,078 15.2
Total 2,967 100.0 5,023 100.0 27,119 100.0 33,516 100.0
65-74 Own 1,184 88.4 2,054 89.9 11,998 85.7 18,853 84.9
Rent 155 11.6 232 10.1 2,008 14.3 3,360 15.1
Total 1,339 100.0 2,286 100.0 14,006 100.0 22,213 100.0
75-84 Own 381 77.8 839 81.5 6,349 76.2 8,827 80.6
Rent 109 22.2 190 18.5 1,980 23.8 2,121 19.4
Total 490 100.0 1,029 100.0 8,329 100.0 10,948 100.0
85+Own 72 45.9 108 24.4 1,707 49.2 2,392 48.3
Rent 85 54.1 335 75.6 1,763 50.8 2,563 51.7
Total 157 100.0 443 100.0 3,470 100.0 4,955 100.0
TOTAL Own 16,383 87.7 19,904 87.2 116,308 76.5 122,750 75.1
Rent 2,300 12.3 2,916 12.8 35,752 23.5 40,713 24.9
Total 18,683 100.0 22,820 100.0 152,060 100.0 163,463 100.0
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2010 2020 2010 2020
TABLE D-6
TENURE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010 & 2020
City of Lakeville Dakota County
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 28
• By comparison, the City of Lakeville had a higher proportion of Married with Children
households (42% of total), while Dakota County had only 33%. Additionally, Lakeville had a
lower proportion of Living Alone households (17%) compared to Dakota County (25%).
• The differences in housing types between Lakeville and Dakota County, reflect more availa-
bility of multifamily rental housing in Dakota County compared to the prominence of single-
family homes in Lakeville. For example, non-family householders tend to rent their housing
more than other categories. This includes elderly widows and young persons. Young peo-
ple typically do not have sufficient incomes to purchase housing, while single seniors are
likely to move to multifamily housing to shed the burden of home maintenance and to have
opportunities for socialization. About 21% of Lakeville households were non-family house-
holds in 2020, while 31% of Dakota County’s households and 37% of Metro Area households
were non-family.
5,4877,1972,4742,6079185,4579,6802,8393,8629820
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Married w/o
Child
Married w/
Child
Other Family Living Alone RoommatesHouseholdsHousehold Type -City of Lakeville
2010 & 2020
2010 2020
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 29
23.9%42.4%12.4%16.9%4.3%22.4%32.6%14.2%24.8%6.1%20.0%29.0%13.8%29.0%8.2%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Married w/o
Child
Married w/
Child
Other Family Living Alone Roommates
Household Type -Pct. of Total, 2020
Lakeville Dakota Co.TC Metro Area
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 30
Number of Households 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020
City of Lakeville 18,683 22,820 5,487 5,457 7,197 9,680 2,474 2,839 2,607 3,862 918 982
Dakota County 152,060 163,463 44,458 36,614 39,472 53,243 21,818 23,144 36,620 40,559 9,692 9,903
Twin Cities Metro Area 1,117,749 1,200,756 298,723 239,877 244,687 348,262 164,086 165,958 319,030 348,692 91,223 97,967
Percent of Total
City of Lakeville 100%100%29.4%23.9%38.5%42.4%13.2%12.4%14.0%16.9%4.9%4.3%
Dakota County 100%100%29.2%22.4%26.0%32.6%14.3%14.2%24.1%24.8%6.4%6.1%
Twin Cities Metro Area 100%100%26.7%20.0%21.9%29.0%14.7%13.8%28.5%29.0%8.2%8.2%
* Single-parent families, unmarried couples with children.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Roommates
TABLE D-7
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010 & 2020
Family Households Non-Family Households
Total HH's Married w/o Child Married w/ Child Other *Living Alone
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 31
Tenure by Household Size
Table D-8 shows the distribution of households by size and tenure in the City of Lakeville in
2010 and 2020. This data is useful in that it sheds insight into the number of units by unit type
that may be most needed in the City of Lakeville.
• Household size for renters tends to be smaller than for owners. This trend is a result of the
typical market segments for rental housing, including households that are younger and are
less likely to be married with children as well as older adults and seniors who choose to
downsize from their single-family homes. In 2020, approximately 15% of all owner-occu-
pied households were one-person households, while 31% of the renter-occupied house-
holds were one-person households in the City of Lakeville.
• Over half (54%) of renter households in the City of Lakeville in 2020 have either one or two
people. The one-person households would primarily seek one-bedroom units and two-per-
son households that are couple would primarily seek one-bedroom units. Two-person
households that consist of a parent and child or roommate would primarily seek two-bed-
room units. Larger households would seek units with multiple bedrooms.
• Two-person households (32%) in the City of Lakeville are the highest percentage of house-
hold types among owner households. This is followed by four-person households, which ac-
count for 21% of owner occupied households.
2,944
6,378
3,915
4,266
1,795
525
81
918 645 403 565
223 100 62
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1PP
Household
2PP
Household
3PP
Household
4PP
Household
5PP
Household
6PP
Household
7PP+
Household
Tenure by Household Size
City of Lakeville (2020)
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 32
Diversity
The population distribution by race, Table D-9 presents the diversity of the population in the
City of Lakeville for 2010 and 2020. The data was obtained from the U.S. Census and American
Community Survey.
• In 2020, “White Alone” comprised the largest proportion of the population in Lakeville
(87%), Dakota County (84%), and in the Twin Cities Metro Area (77%). The percentage has
decreased since 2010 where “White Alone” was 89% in the City of Lakeville and 85% in Da-
kota County.
Size Number Pct.Number Pct.Number Pct.Number Pct.
1PP Household 1,934 11.8%673 29.3%2,944 14.8%918 31.5%
2PP Household 5,019 30.6%552 24.0%6,378 32.0%645 22.1%
3PP Household 3,236 19.8%420 18.3%3,915 19.7%403 13.8%
4PP Household 3,865 23.6%370 16.1%4,266 21.4%565 19.4%
5PP Household 1,638 10.0%186 8.1%1,795 9.0%223 7.6%
6PP Household 491 3.0%62 2.7%525 2.6%100 3.4%
7PP+ Household 200 1.2%37 1.6%81 0.4%62 2.1%
Total 16,383 100.0%2,300 100.0%19,904 100.0%2,916 100.0%
Size Number Pct.Number Pct.Number Pct.Number Pct.
1PP Household 22,451 19.3%14,169 39.6%24,578 20.0%15,981 39.3%
2PP Household 40,653 35.0%9,485 26.5%45,153 36.8%11,334 27.8%
3PP Household 20,404 17.5%5,375 15.0%20,730 16.9%5,448 13.4%
4PP Household 20,393 17.5%3,833 10.7%20,817 17.0%3,934 9.7%
5PP Household 8,434 7.3%1,768 4.9%8,053 6.6%2,549 6.3%
6PP Household 2,672 2.3%718 2.0%2,131 1.7%964 2.4%
7PP+ Household 1,301 1.1%404 1.1%1,288 1.0%503 1.2%
Total 116,308 100.0%35,752 100.0%122,750 100.0%40,713 100.0%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
TABLE D-8
TENURE BY HOUSEHOLD SIZE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010 and 2020
DAKOTA COUNTY
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
2020
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010
2010 2020
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied Owner Occupied Renter Occupied
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 33
NUMBER
2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020
City of Lakeville 49,970 54,914 1,407 1,944 200 144 21 45 2,276 3,472 660 162 1,420 2,112 1,955 2,805
Dakota County 339,499 328,845 18,709 26,711 1,647 825 216 133 17,451 20,899 9,556 1,224 11,474 14,661 23,966 31,069
Twin Cities Metro Area 2,246,356 2,218,057 238,723 296,720 20,906 13,467 1,262 866 183,421 234,897 74,516 12,513 84,383 106,902 167,558 199,688
PERCENTAGE
City of Lakeville 89.3%87.5%2.5%3.1%0.4%0.2%0.0%0.1%4.1%5.5%1.2%0.3%2.5%3.4%3.5%4.5%
Dakota County 85.2%83.6%4.7%6.8%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.0%4.4%5.3%2.4%0.3%2.9%3.7%6.0%7.9%
Twin Cities Metro Area 78.8%76.9%8.4%10.3%0.7%0.5%0.0%0.0%6.4%8.1%2.6%0.4%3.0%3.7%5.9%6.9%
1 US Census respondents list themselves ethnically Hispanic or Latino and racially in one of the other listed categories.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting LLC
White Alone Black or African
American Alone
American Indian or
Alaska Native Alone
(AIAN)
Native Hawaiian or
Pacific Islander
Alone (NHPI)
Asian Alone Some Other Race Hispanic or Latino 1
Ethnicity not Race
2010 and 2020
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY RACE
TABLE D-9
Two or More Races
Alone
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 34
• U.S. Census respondents that list themselves ethnically as Hispanic or Latino, racially list
themselves in various race categories. As of 2020, 4.5% of the City of Lakeville’s population
was Hispanic/Latino. The Hispanic/Latino population was 3.5% of the City of Lakeville’s pop-
ulation in 2010.
• The Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander Alone population experienced the largest percent-
age growth between 2010 and 2020 in Lakeville, increasing by 114%.
Mobility in the Past Year
Table D-10 shows the mobility patterns of the City of Lakeville residents within a one-year time
frame (2020 is the latest data available).
• The majority of residents in the City of Lakeville (89%) did not move within the last year.
• Of the remaining residents that moved within the last year, approximately 6.1% moved
from Lakeville but remained within the same county and 2.9% moved to a different county
but within the same state.
• A greater proportion of younger age cohorts tended to move compared to older age co-
horts. In the City of Lakeville, approximately 22% of those age 25 to 34 moved within the
last year compared to 12% of those age 75+.
11.7%12.0%
22.2%
13.2%
5.7%
7.2%
4.9%
11.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Percent of People that Moved in Last Year
City of Lakeville (2020)
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 35
Demographic Comparison to Peer Cities
Table D-11 provides a demographic summary comparison for Lakeville and peer cities. With the
guidance of Lakeville city staff, the following communities were identified as peer cities and are
included in the analysis: Apple Valley, Blaine, Burnsville, Cottage Grove, Eagan, Maple Grove,
Plymouth, and Woodbury. The peer cities were identified to be similar to Lakeville by their pop-
ulation or within a similar geography.
• The City of Lakeville had the largest numeric and percentage increase in population be-
tween 2010 and 2020 compared to the selected peer cities. Additionally, Lakeville had the
highest persons per household among peer cities, with a household size of 2.99 in 2020.
• Compared to the peer cities, Lakeville had the third highest median household income
($112,020) of all identified peer cities. Burnsville had the lowest median household income
($76,017).
• Peer city percentage of owner households vary from 89% in Cottage Grove to 68% in Burns-
ville. Lakeville had a homeownership rate (87.2%) that ranks second among the seven cities
identified in the table.
• Lakeville is the youngest city among peer cities, with a median age of 36.0 in 2020.
Lakeville
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 15,431 88.3%1,057 6.0%444 2.5%468 2.7%82 0.5%
18 to 24 4,514 88.0%308 6.0%200 3.9%103 2.0%5 0.1%
25 to 34 6,271 77.8%1,008 12.5%492 6.1%282 3.5%8 0.1%
35 to 44 7,683 86.8%735 8.3%142 1.6%292 3.3%0 0.0%
45 to 54 9,499 94.3%342 3.4%141 1.4%71 0.7%20 0.2%
55 to 64 8,325 92.8%404 4.5%188 2.1%45 0.5%9 0.1%
65 to 74 3,528 95.1%70 1.9%67 1.8%45 1.2%0 0.0%
75+2,108 88.4%26 1.1%196 8.2%55 2.3%0 0.0%
Total 57,360 88.7%3,950 6.1%1,869 2.9%1,359 2.1%124 0.2%
Dakota County
Age No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Under 18 87,852 89.4%5,783 5.9%2,897 2.9%1,366 1.4%405 0.4%
18 to 24 25,148 75.0%3,018 9.0%3,856 11.5%1,341 4.0%168 0.5%
25 to 34 41,651 75.0%5,609 10.1%5,720 10.3%2,110 3.8%444 0.8%
35 to 44 50,014 87.3%4,010 7.0%2,177 3.8%974 1.7%115 0.2%
45 to 54 52,749 92.2%2,174 3.8%1,659 2.9%400 0.7%229 0.4%
55 to 64 54,309 94.0%1,733 3.0%1,387 2.4%231 0.4%116 0.2%
65 to 74 34,576 95.5%724 2.0%579 1.6%145 0.4%181 0.5%
75+22,145 92.5%934 3.9%575 2.4%239 1.0%48 0.2%
Total 368,445 87.8%23,985 5.7%18,850 4.5%6,807 1.6%1,705 0.4%
Twin Cities Metro Area 2,614,746 85.9%212,541 7.0%137,636 4.5%61,431 2.0%16,245 0.5%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
Moved
TABLE D-10
MOBILITY IN THE PAST YEAR BY AGE FOR CURRENT RESIDENCE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
Not Moved
Same House Within Same County AbroadDifferent County Same
State Different State
Same House Within Same County Different County Same
State Different State Abroad
DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 36
Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.
Demographic Summary
Population (2020)
Households (2020)
HH Size (2020)
Population Growth (2010 - 2020)13,536 |24.2%7,290 |14.9%13,036 |22.8%4,011 |6.7%4,250 |12.3%4,649 |7.2%8,686 |14.1%10,450 |14.8%13,141 |21.2%
Household Growth (2010 - 2020)4,582 |24.5%2,589 |13.7%4,753 |22.6%1,197 |4.9%1,386 |11.8%2,360 |9.3%4,640 |20.3%4,545 |15.9%5,710 |25.3%
Median HH Income (2020)
Median Age (2020)
Owner-Occ. HH (2020)19,904 |87.2%16,014 |77.7%20,132 |87.0%16,295 |68.2%10,904 |88.9%18,831 |70.3%23,728 |85.2%22,864 |72.7%21,118 |81.3%
Renter-Occ. HH (2020)2,916 |12.8%4,587 |22.3%3,019 |13.0%7,603 |31.8%1,362 |11.1%7,974 |29.7%4,117 |14.8%8,606 |27.3%4,851 |18.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
2.99 2.63 2.52
$112,020 $90,162 $76,017
2.49 2.44
$93,332 $112,631
2.96
$102,600
2.72 2.55
$86,796 $113,793
68,855 81,02638,83970,222 70,253
23,265 21,464 25,480 27,609 33,20813,10525,830 27,507
TABLE D-11
PEER CITIES COMPARISON
CITY OF LAKEVILLE & PEER CITIES
Lakeville Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Plymouth WoodburyCottage GroveBlaine Maple Grove
75,102
28,304
2.65
$108,055
37.940.436.0 37.8 37.1 38.936.537.4 40.5
69,490 56,374 64,317
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 37
Employment Trends
Since employment growth generally fuels household growth, employment trends are a reliable
indicator of housing demand. Typically, households prefer to live near work for convenience.
However, housing is often less expensive in smaller towns, making commuting from outlying
communities to work in larger employment centers attractive for households concerned about
housing affordability.
Employment Growth and Projections
Table E-1 shows projected employment growth in the City of Lakeville and Dakota County. Ta-
ble E-1 shows employment growth trends and projections from 2000 to 2040 based on the
most recent Metropolitan Council projections.
Note that the employment data for 2020 reflects unemployment caused by the CO VID-19
pandemic.
• There was an estimated total of 20,669 jobs in the City of Lakeville during the second quar-
ter of 2022, which was roughly 11% of the Dakota County total (186,650 jobs).
• The City of Lakeville’s employment is anticipated to increase by 32% between 2020 and
2040 while employment in Dakota County is forecasted to increase by 29%. Job creation in
the Twin Cities Metro Area continues to grow, making the area more appealing for housing.
Annual
Employment
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Q2 2022
2040 Forecast
Change No.Pct.No.Pct.
2000 - 2010 2,970 28.1%15,465 10.1%
2010 - 2020 3,473 25.6%9,160 5.4%
2020 - 2040 5,474 32.2%52,252 29.4%
Sources: MN DEED; Met. Council; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE E-1
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS AND PROJECTIONS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2000 to 2040
City of Lakeville Dakota County
10,583 153,403
12,949 170,908
13,553 168,868
16,256 184,043
17,026 178,028
20,669 186,650
22,500 230,280
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 38
Resident Labor Force
Recent employment growth trends are shown in Tables E-2, which presents resident employ-
ment data for the City of Lakeville from 2012 through November 2022. These numbers were
derived from the proportion of jobs in Lakeville as compared to Dakota County and the State of
Minnesota. Resident employment data is calculated as an annual average and reveals the work
force and number of employed persons living in the City. It is important to note that not all of
these individuals necessarily work in the City.
• Resident employment in the City of Lakeville increased by approximately 6,515 people be-
tween 2012 and 2021 (+21%) and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% in 2012 to
2.7% in 2021. By comparison, Dakota County’s unemployment rate also decreased from
5.2% in 2012 to 3.1% in 2021.
• Between 2012 and 2021, the City of Lakeville’s labor force increased 19%, despite decreas-
ing by 984 people between 2020 and 2021.
• The City of Lakeville’s unemployment rate has stayed fairly consistent with Dakota County’s
unemployment rate, but slightly lower in all years between 2012 and 2021. The greatest
yearly difference being 0.9% lower than Dakota County in 2020.
• Covid-19 caused widespread unemployment in 2020 and early 2021. Although the unem-
ployment rate in Lakeville peaked at 5.4% in 2020, more recently it has fallen to 1.6% as of
November 2022.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 39
Total Dakota Co.Minnesota
Labor Total Total Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment
Year Force Employed Unemployed Rate Rate Rate
2012 32,078 30,587 1,491 4.6%5.2%5.6%
2013 32,727 31,400 1,327 4.1%4.5%5.0%
2014 33,344 32,193 1,151 3.5%3.8%4.3%
2015 33,581 32,578 1,003 3.0%3.3%3.8%
2016 33,945 32,915 1,030 3.0%3.4%3.9%
2017 36,021 35,030 991 2.8%3.1%3.5%
2018 37,286 36,355 931 2.5%2.7%3.1%
2019 38,447 37,370 1,077 2.8%3.1%3.4%
2020 39,102 37,006 2,096 5.4%6.3%6.3%
2021 38,118 37,102 1,016 2.7%3.1%3.4%
Nov. 2022 39,303 38,665 638 1.6%1.8%2.0%
Change 2012-'21 6,040 6,515 -475 -2.0%-2.1%-2.2%
Sources: MN Dept. of Employment & Economic Deve. (MN DEED); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2012 TO NOVEMBER 2022
TABLE E-2
RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT (ANNUAL AVERAGE)
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
4.6%
2.5%
5.4%
2.7%
1.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov.
2022
Unemployment Rate
2012 to Nov. 2022
Lakeville Dakota Co.MN
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 40
Covered Employment and Wages by Industry
Table E-3 presents covered employment numbers as well as wage data in the City of Lakeville
from the second quarter 2021 through the second quarter 2022. Covered employment data is
calculated as an annual average and reveals the number of jobs in the designated area, which
are covered by unemployment insurance. Many temporary workforce positions, agricultural,
self-employed persons, and some other types of jobs are not covered by unemployment insur-
ance and are not included in the table. Some agricultural businesses and employees are listed in
this table, but not all positions are included. The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
(QCEW) is sourced from the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Develop-
ment.
• Between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022, the number of jobs increased in all industries with the ex-
ception of the following: Natural Resources & Mining (-10%), Construction (-2%), and Manu-
facturing (-1%). The remaining sectors all saw an increase, most notably the Professional &
Business Services sector (+31%) and the Information sector (+25%).
• As of Q2 2022, the Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector accounted for the largest share
of employment in Lakeville, with 4,630 employees accounting for 22% of employment.
• When compared to Dakota County, the City of Lakeville had a higher proportion of employ-
ees in numerous sectors including: Leisure & Hospitality (3.5% higher), Manufacturing (3.1%
higher), Education & Health Services (1.2% higher), and the Other Services (0.7% higher)
sector.
• The Construction sector saw the largest growth in average weekly wages increasing by $122
(+7.6%) between Q2 2021 to Q2 2022. The Manufacturing sector saw the second largest
growth, increasing by $70 (+5.9%).
• The only two sectors that saw a decrease in wages between Q2 2021 to Q2 2022 were the
Professional & Business Services sector and the Information sector, decreasing by 8% and
3%, respectively.
• At $1,055, the average weekly wage across all industries in the City of Lakeville is 17% lower
than Dakota County ($1,251). However, wages were higher in the Construction sector were
8% higher in Lakeville compared to Dakota County, as were wages in the Education &
Health Services sector (6% higher).
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 41
Industry Establish-
ments
Employ-
ment
Weekly
Wage
Establish-
ments
Employ-
ment
Weekly
Wage
Total, All Industries 1,352 19,194 $1,016 1,457 20,669 $1,055 1,475 7.7%$39 3.8%
Natural Resources & Mining 5 39 $555 6 35 $594 -4 -10.3%$39 7.0%
Construction 142 1,232 $1,595 152 1,210 $1,717 -22 -1.8%$122 7.6%
Manufacturing 72 2,784 $1,186 73 2,764 $1,256 -20 -0.7%$70 5.9%
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 201 4,468 $881 223 4,630 $946 162 3.6%$65 7.4%
Information 22 207 $957 28 259 $928 52 25.1%($29)-3.0%
Financial Activities 159 775 $1,676 166 907 $1,692 132 17.0%$16 1.0%
Professional & Business Services 228 1,782 $1,232 244 2,342 $1,130 560 31.4%($102)-8.3%
Education & Health Services 266 4,196 $1,060 284 4,412 $1,119 216 5.1%$59 5.6%
Leisure & Hospitality 103 2,496 $404 102 2,761 $444 265 10.6%$40 9.9%
Other Services 150 805 $795 174 899 $826 94 11.7%$31 3.9%
Public Administration 4 406 $1,189 5 448 $1,190 42 10.3%$1 0.1%
Total, All Industries 10,832 182,715 $1,165 11,374 186,650 $1,251 3,935 2.2%$86 7.4%
Natural Resources & Mining 66 1,330 $795 68 1,459 $846 129 9.7%$51 6.4%
Construction 990 10,588 $1,481 1,046 10,961 $1,585 373 3.5%$104 7.0%
Manufacturing 463 18,675 $1,387 473 19,114 $1,467 439 2.4%$80 5.8%
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 2,222 46,485 $1,041 2,294 47,304 $1,189 819 1.8%$148 14.2%
Information 178 4,824 $1,807 199 5,621 $1,924 797 16.5%$117 6.5%
Financial Activities 1,110 13,721 $1,768 1,135 12,492 $1,759 -1,229 -9.0%($9)-0.5%
Professional & Business Services 1,803 20,281 $1,491 1,900 21,278 $1,454 997 4.9%($37)-2.5%
Education & Health Services 1,967 37,643 $981 2,096 37,526 $1,055 -117 -0.3%$74 7.5%
Leisure & Hospitality 916 16,967 $555 941 18,476 $760 1,509 8.9%$205 36.9%
Other Services 1,041 6,760 $751 1,145 6,745 $828 -15 -0.2%$77 10.3%
Public Administration 76 5,438 $1,332 77 5,671 $1,350 233 4.3%$18 1.4%
Sources: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (MN DEED); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Employment
# %
Wage
# %
City of Lakeville
Dakota County
TABLE E-3
QUARTERLY CENSUS OF EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Q2 2021 AND Q2 2022
Q2 2021 Q2 2022 Change Q2 2021 - Q2 2022
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Public Administration
Q2 2022 Employment: % of Total
Lakeville Dakota County
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 42
Inflow / Outflow Characteristics
Proximity to employment is often a primary consideration when choosing where to live, partic-
ularly for younger and lower income households since transportation costs often account for a
greater proportion of their budgets. For this analysis, we reviewed commuting patterns in the
City of Lakeville. Table E-4 provides a summary of the inflow and outflow characteristics of the
workers in the City based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics
data for 2019, the most recent data available.
Outflow reflects the number of workers living in the area but employed outside the City, while
inflow measures the number of workers that are employed in the City but live outside the area.
Interior flow reflects the number of workers that live and work in the City.
• Overall, the City of Lakeville is a major exporter of workers as a higher number of residents
commute from the city for work.
• An estimated 13,440 workers come into Lakeville for employment (inflow) daily, while
31,373 resident workers commute out of the City (outflow). An estimated 4,694 people
both live and work in the City (interior flow).
• Roughly 74% of the jobs in Lakeville are filled by workers commuting into the City. The
highest proportion of workers coming into the City are aged 30 to 54 (52%) and earn more
than $3,333 per month ($40,000 per year), representing 47% of incoming workers. The “All
Other Services” sector brings in most of the employees (57%).
$0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000
Natural Resources & Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other Services
Public Administration
Q2 2022 Average Weekly Wage
Lakeville Dakota County
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 43
• A higher proportion of outflow workers (64%) earn monthly wages above $3,333, when
compared to workers who commute into Lakeville for work (47%).
City of Lakeville Inflow / Outflow
City Total 31,373 100.0%13,440 100.0%4,694 100.0%
By Age
Workers Aged 29 or younger 6,374 20.3%3,609 26.9%1,321 28.1%
Workers Aged 30 to 54 18,284 58.3%6,979 51.9%2,292 48.8%
Workers Aged 55 or older 6,715 21.4%2,852 21.2%1,081 23.0%
By Monthly Wage
Workers Earning $1,250 per month or less 5,896 18.8%3,435 25.6%1,701 36.2%
Workers Earning $1,251 to $3,333 per month 5,532 17.6%3,623 27.0%1,224 26.1%
Workers Earning More than $3,333 per month 19,945 63.6%6,382 47.5%1,769 37.7%
By Industry
"Goods Producing"3,985 12.7%2,653 19.7%554 11.8%
"Trade, Transportation, and Utilities"5,885 18.8%3,056 22.7%839 17.9%
"All Other Services"21,503 68.5%7,731 57.5%3,301 70.3%
Sources: US Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics; Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC.
TABLE E-4
INFLOW / OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTICS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2019
Outflow Inflow Interior Flow
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 44
Commuting Patterns
Table E-5 highlights the commuting patterns, including distance and destination, of workers in
the City of Lakeville based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics
data. Home Destination summarizes where workers live who are employed in the City, while
Work Destination represents where workers are employed who live in the City.
• As the table illustrates, about 87% of the City of Lakeville residents commuted to jobs out-
side the City, 12% commuted to jobs in Minneapolis (4,479 employees), 7.7% commuted to
jobs in Burnsville (2,767 employees), and 7.6% commuted to jobs in Bloomington (2,750
employees).
• Of the people who work in Lakeville, 26% live in Lakeville. The remaining 74% of the work-
ers are commuting from mostly Farmington (7.5%), Apple Valley (6.9%), and Burnsville (6%).
• An estimated 58% of the workers in Lakeville reside within ten miles of their place of em-
ployment while 27% travel from 10 to 24 miles. Roughly 9% of the workers commute from
25 to 50 miles and another 5% come from more than 50 miles away.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 45
Existing Business Mix by NAICS
Table E-6 presents business data as compiled from ESRI and Data Axle, Inc. in 2022. The busi-
ness inventory database is compiled from multiple sources; including directory resources from
the yellow and white pages, annual reports, 10ks, SEC filings, government data , U.S. Postal Ser-
vice, business trade directories, newspapers, etc. To ensure accurate information, phone tele-
phone verifications are completed for each business in the database. The data is characterized
based on the six-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The NAICS is the
standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for the pur-
pose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S. business econ-
omy.
• There are approximately 1,447 businesses with 21,175 employees in the City of Lakeville.
Count Share Count Share
4,694 13.0%4,694 25.9%
4,479 12.4%1,355 7.5%
2,767 7.7%1,254 6.9%
2,750 7.6%1,095 6.0%
2,418 6.7%552 3.0%
2,083 5.8%508 2.8%
1,655 4.6%493 2.7%
1,156 3.2%490 2.7%
910 2.5%381 2.1%
680 1.9%373 2.1%
12,475 34.6%6,939 38.3%
Distance Travelled Distance Travelled
Total Primary Jobs 36,067 100.0%Total Primary Jobs 18,134 100.0%
Less than 10 miles 12,787 35.5% Less than 10 miles 10,528 58.1%
10 to 24 miles 19,470 54.0% 10 to 24 miles 4,984 27.5%
25 to 50 miles 2,262 6.3% 25 to 50 miles 1,619 8.9%
Greater than 50 miles 1,548 4.3% Greater than 50 miles 1,003 5.5%
Work Destination: Where workers are employed, who live in the selection area.
Home Destination: Where workers live, who are employed in the selection area.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
All Other Locations
Lakeville, MN
Farmington, MN
Apple Valley, MN
Burnsville, MN
Eagan, MN
Minneapolis, MN
Bloomington, MN
Rosemount, MN
Savage, MN
St. Paul, MN
All Other Locations
St. Paul, MN
Apple Valley, MN
Eden Prairie, MN
Edina, MN
Rosemount, MN
Lakeville, MN
Minneapolis, MN
Burnsville, MN
Bloomington, MN
Eagan, MN
Place of ResidencePlace of Employment
TABLE E-5
COMMUTING PATTERNS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2019
Work Destination Home Destination
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 46
• Retail Trade is the largest industry type in terms of businesses (198 businesses) and in terms
of number of employees (3,573 employees). The Construction industry has the second most
business (141 business) in Lakeville, while Manufacturing ranks second for number of em-
ployees (3,249 employees).
Employer Survey Summary
Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC surveyed a small sample size of employer representa-
tives from major employers in Lakeville regarding recent trends in job growth, employee turno-
ver, and projected job growth. In addition, representatives were asked their opinion about is-
sues related to housing in the area. Community economic development information provides
useful job growth data and assists in identifying housing demand in an area. Though our sample
size was small, we encourage diving deeper into surveying local employers. The following sum-
marizes key points derived from the surveys.
• Employers identified that a majority of employees lived and commuted from communities
in the southern portion of the Twin Cities Metro Area, south of the Minnesota and Missis-
sippi River.
Business/Industry Number Pct Number Pct
NAICS CODES
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 6 0.4%18 0.1%
Mining 0 0.0%0 0.0%
Utilities 1 0.1%12 0.1%
Construction 141 9.7%962 4.5%
Manufacturing 84 5.8%3,249 15.3%
Wholesale Trade 60 4.1%894 4.2%
Retail Trade 198 13.7%3,573 16.9%
Transportation & Warehousing 26 1.8%608 2.9%
Information 33 2.3%451 2.1%
Finance & Insurance 99 6.8%880 4.2%
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 57 3.9%777 3.7%
Professional, Scientific & Tech Services 132 9.1%1,207 5.7%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 5 0.3%10 0.0%
Administrative & Support & Waste Management & Remediation Services 49 3.4%902 4.3%
Educational Services 54 3.7%2,265 10.7%
Health Care & Social Assistance 117 8.1%1,272 6.0%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 28 1.9%435 2.1%
Accommodation & Food Services 91 6.3%1,912 9.0%
Other Services (except Public Administration)135 9.3%1,123 5.3%
Public Administration 30 2.1%578 2.7%
Unclassified Establishments 101 7.0%47 0.2%
Total 1,447 100.0%21,175 100.0%
Sources: ESRI; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Businesses Employees
TABLE E-6
BUSINESS SUMMARY - BY NAICS CODE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2022
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 47
• All employers felt the housing stock in the City of Lakeville was sufficient and that it did not
impact their ability to attract or retain employees. Some employers noted that the need for
additional housing is minimal, specifically high-density housing.
• Numerous surveyed employers mentioned the expectation to stabilize or increase employ-
ment over the next five years. Additionally, some employers did not believe their employ-
ees had a difficult time finding housing in the area.
Major Employers
Table E-7 shows major employers in the City of Lakeville. Data is sourced to the City of Lakeville
and is current as of 2022, the most recent information available. It should be noted that this is
not a comprehensive list of all employers in the city.
These major employers based in Lakeville employ nearly 6,449 people. The largest employer in
Lakeville, Lakeville Area Schools employs roughly 1,268 people, which is roughly 20% of all ma-
jor employers in the table.
Among major employers in the City of Lakeville, the manufacturing industry accounts for the
highest share of employees, totaling 2,617 employees or 41% of major employers.
Approximate Total
Name Industry/Product/Service Employee Size
Lakeville Area Schools ISD #194 Public school district office 1,268
Hy-Vee Grocery store 800
Hearthside Food Solutions Food Manufacturing 707
TreeHouse Private Brands Food Manufacturing 452
Post Consumer Brands Headquarters 415
BTD Manufacturing Fabricated Metal 390
City of Lakeville City Government 371
Menasha Corp.Corrugated Packaging Materials 369
Buddy's Kitchen Custom Frozen Food Manufacturer 300
NPL Construction Construction (Utilities)276
FedEx Freight Trucking & Delivery 250
ImageTrend Software Development 227
Fleet Farm Retail 225
Uponor Manufacturer 202
Hearth & Home Technologies HQ & Fireplace Manufacturer 197
Major Employers Total 6,449
TABLE E-7
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2022
Source: City of Lakeville; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 48
Employment Comparison to Peer Cities
Table E-8 provides an employment summary comparison for Lakeville and peer cities. With the
guidance of Lakeville city staff, the following communities were identified as peer cities and are
included in the analysis: Apple Valley, Blaine, Burnsville, Cottage Grove, Eagan, Maple Grove,
Plymouth, and Woodbury. The peer cities were identified to be similar to Lakeville by their pop-
ulation or within a similar geography.
• The City of Lakeville had the fifth largest resident labor force (39,297) in 2022 compared to
the selected peer cities. Additionally, the unemployment rate in Lakeville (1.8%) in 2022 was
comparable to many peer cities.
• Compared to the peer cities, Lakeville had the fourth lowest average weekly wage ($1,055)
of the identified peer cities. Apple Valley had the lowest average weekly wage ($949).
• Peer city percentage of employee inflow varies from 24% in Cottage Grove to 55% in Eagan.
Lakeville’s proportion of employee inflow is 27% and ranks second lowest among the cities
identified in the table. Additionally, Lakeville had the highest employee interior flow (9.5%)
among peer cities.
EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 49
Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.
Employment Summary
Resident Employment (2022)
Employed
Labor Force
Unemployment Rate
Covered Employment (Q2 2022)
Establishments
Employment
Avg. Weekly Wage | Annual $1,055 |$54,860 $949 |$49,348 $1,003 |$52,156 $1,186 |$61,672 $1,069 |$55,588 $1,482 |$77,064 $1,287 |$66,924 $1,658 |$86,216 $970 |$50,440
Commuting Patterns (2019)
Inflow 13,440 |27.1%11,996 |30.0%24,610 |40.0%31,343 |48.5%6,668 |24.4%48,091 |55.5%33,016 |47.0%50,701 |54.7%20,941 |34.7%
Outflow 31,373 |63.4%25,218 |63.1%33,029 |53.7%28,606 |44.3%18,140 |66.5%32,394 |37.4%32,170 |45.8%36,476 |39.4%34,418 |57.0%
Interior Flow 4,694 |9.5%2,747 |6.9%3,858 |6.3%4,661 |7.2%2,465 |9.0%6,216 |7.2%5,049 |7.2%5,476 |5.9%4,993 |8.3%
Source: MN Employment & Economic Development (DEED); U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
55,195 26,50620,669 15,533 33,669 9,940 51,198
41,127
41,806
1.6%
1,785
Lakeville Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Plymouth WoodburyCottage Grove
38,597
45,07821,229
30,996 35,292 38,792 44,25820,828
2,131
39,297 31,540 36,032 39,497
Blaine Maple Grove
37,175 41,706
37,945 42,412
2.0%1.7%
1,753 2,003
25,354 38,674
TABLE E-8
EMPLOYMENT PEER CITIES COMPARISON
CITY OF LAKEVILLE & PEER CITIES
1.8%1.8%1.9%
583 2,397 2,874
1.8%1.7%2.1%
1,457 1,109
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 50
Introduction
The variety and condition of the housing stock in a community provides the basis for an attrac-
tive living environment. Housing functions as a building block for neighborhoods and goods
and services. We examined the housing market in Lakeville by reviewing data on the age of the
existing housing supply, examining residential building trends, and reviewing housing data from
the American Community Survey that relates to the City of Lakeville.
Residential Building Permit Trends
Maxfield Research obtained data from the City of Lakeville on the number of building permits
issued for new housing units in Lakeville from 2010 through November 2022. Table HC-1 dis-
plays permits issued for single-family, detached townhomes, attached townhomes, and multi-
family dwellings. Multifamily units usually include both for-sale (condominium, twinhomes,
and townhomes) and rental projects. The following are key points about housing development
since 2010.
• The City of Lakeville issued permits for the construction of 7,976 new residential units from
2010 to November 2022. That equates to an average of 614 units annually since 2010.
• Between 2010 and 2015, the City of Lakeville issued residential permits for an average of
319 units. Residential permit activity nearly tripled between 2016 and 2021, as permits
were issued for an average of 894 units.
• Single-family units account for 61% of all units permitted between 2010 and November
2022. Additionally, the City of Lakeville has permitted an average of 374 single-family units
per year since 2010.
• Multifamily building permit has been limited between 2010 and 2015. Many years did not
experience any multifamily construction. In 2016, 147 units were permitted and in 2020, a
recent high of 408 units were permitted.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 51
Year Single-Family Det. TH Att. TH Multifamily
2010 129 9 0 0 138
2011 118 4 6 93 221
2012 279 1 10 101 391
2013 370 4 24 0 398
2014 316 3 29 0 348
2015 361 5 54 0 420
2016 389 14 62 147 612
2017 454 33 44 315 846
2018 446 38 43 75 602
2019 521 37 62 335 955
2020 639 103 73 408 1,223
2021 527 136 73 390 1,126
2022*314 61 154 167 696
Total 4,863 448 634 2,031 7,976
Sources: City of Lakeville; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
*Data provided through November 2022
HC-1
RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMIT TRENDS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010 through November 2022
Units Permitted Total Residential Units
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Nov.
2022UnitsResidential Building Permit Trends, 2010 -Nov. 2022
SF Det. TH Att. TH MF
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 52
Lakeville Single-Family Building Permits (2021 – Nov. 2022)
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 53
Lakeville Multifamily Building Permits (2021 – Nov. 2022)
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 54
American Community Survey
The American Community Survey (“ACS”) is an ongoing statistical survey administered by the
U.S. Census Bureau that is sent to approximately 3 million addresses annually. The survey gath-
ers data previously contained only in the long form of the decennial census. As a result, the
survey is ongoing and provides a more “up-to-date” portrait of demographic, economic, social,
and household characteristics every year, not just every ten years. The most recent ACS high-
lights data collected between 2016 and 2020. Tables HC-2 to HC-7 show key data for the City of
Lakeville.
Age of Housing Stock
The following graph shows the age distribution of the housing stock in 2020 based on data from
the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (5-Year). Table HC-2 includes the number
of housing units built in Lakeville, prior to 1950 and during each decade since.
• In total, the City of Lakeville is estimated to have 22,820 housing units, of which roughly
87% are owner-occupied and 13% are renter-occupied.
2.2%1.5%
3.9%
7.3%
18.8%
28.1%
24.8%
13.4%
5.7%5.5%
8.8%
16.5%
20.9%21.1%
15.4%
6.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
<1950s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Pct. of Housing Stock by Decade (2020)
City of Lakeville Dakota Co.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 55
Total Med. Yr.
Units Built No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner-Occupied 19,904 1996 380 1.9 311 1.6 880 4.4 1,544 7.8 3,519 17.7 5,806 29.2 4,876 24.5 2,588 13.0
Renter-Occupied 2,916 1997 131 4.5 31 1.1 18 0.6 114 3.9 762 26.1 601 20.6 794 27.2 465 15.9
Total 22,820 1996 511 2.2 342 1.5 898 3.9 1,658 7.3 4,281 18.8 6,407 28.1 5,670 24.8 3,053 13.4
Owner-Occupied 122,750 1987 7,017 5.7 7,000 5.7 11,394 9.3 18,468 15.0 25,362 20.7 27,334 22.3 19,470 15.9 6,705 5.5
Renter-Occupied 40,713 1985 2,274 5.6 1,960 4.8 2,980 7.3 8,516 20.9 8,857 21.8 7,219 17.7 5,689 14.0 3,218 7.9
Total 163,463 1986 9,291 5.7 8,960 5.5 14,374 8.8 26,984 16.5 34,219 20.9 34,553 21.1 25,159 15.4 9,923 6.1
Owner-Occupied 825,889 1976 150,710 18.2 96,513 11.7 76,271 9.2 105,684 12.8 122,817 14.9 125,963 15.3 107,479 13.0 40,452 4.9
Renter-Occupied 374,867 1976 66,204 17.7 28,147 7.5 47,609 12.7 69,220 18.5 55,121 14.7 41,174 11.0 36,182 9.7 31,210 8.3
Total 1,200,756 1977 216,914 18.1 124,660 10.4 123,880 10.3 174,904 14.6 177,938 14.8 167,137 13.9 143,661 12.0 71,662 6.0
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HC-2
AGE OF HOUSING STOCK
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
1960s 1970s 2010s
Year Unit Built
1980s 1990s<1950 1950s
METRO AREA
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DAKOTA COUNTY
2000s
Note: Total units not equal to total households because data based on sample instead of 100% count.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 56
• Homes in Lakeville are newer than homes in Dakota County, as the median year built in
Lakeville is 1996 (1996 – owner-occ. | 1997 – renter-occ.), while the median year built in
Dakota County is 1986 (1987 – owner-occ. | 1985 – renter-occ.). Although the highest
numbers of homes in Lakeville and Dakota County were constructed in the 1990s, the sec-
ond highest proportion of Lakeville homes were built in the 2000s (25%), while the second
highest proportion of Dakota County homes were built in the 1980s (21%). Across the
Metro Area, the highest proportion of homes were built prior to 1950.
• Approximately 13% of Lakeville’s housing stock has been built since 2010 compared to 6%
of Dakota County and in Minnesota.
Housing Units by Structure and Occupancy or (Housing Stock by Structure Type)
Table HC-3 shows the housing stock in the City of Lakeville by type of structure and tenure as of
2020.
• The dominant housing type in the City of Lakeville is the single-family detached home, rep-
resenting an estimated 73% of all housing units in 2020 (80% of all owner-occupied housing
units and 24% of renter-occupied housing units).
• Approximately 77% of all housing units with two or more units are renter-occupied. Addi-
tionally, all housing units in Lakeville with 20 or more units are renter-occupied.
• As of 2020, the Census Bureau identified that mobile homes account for about 3% of all
housing units in the City of Lakeville. Of the 3,342 mobile homes found in Dakota County,
21% are located in the City of Lakeville.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 57
Owner-Renter-Owner-Renter-Owner-Renter-
Units in Structure Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct.Occupied Pct.
1, detached 15,934 80.1%694 23.8%92,069 75.0%4,687 12%662,385 80.2%47,308 12.6%
1, attached 3,005 15.1%966 33.1%22,231 18.1%7,090 17%98,665 11.9%37,254 9.9%
2 49 0.2%21 0.7%301 0.2%989 2%7,724 0.9%20,622 5.5%
3 to 4 61 0.3%44 1.5%1,064 0.9%1,640 4%5,826 0.7%17,676 4.7%
5 to 9 216 1.1%287 9.8%1,038 0.8%2,109 5%6,406 0.8%21,296 5.7%
10 to 19 4 0.0%35 1.2%336 0.3%2,927 7%3,724 0.5%43,542 11.6%
20 to 49 0 0.0%297 10.2%811 0.7%7,072 17%8,384 1.0%64,415 17.2%
50 or more 0 0.0%447 15.3%2,365 1.9%13,340 33%20,001 2.4%120,258 32.1%
Mobile home 635 3.2%73 2.5%2,535 2.1%807 2%12,641 1.5%2,263 0.6%
Boat, RV, van, etc.0 0.0%52 1.8%0 0.0%52 0%133 0.0%233 0.1%
Total 19,904 100%2,916 100%122,750 100%40,713 100%825,889 100%374,867 100%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
CITY OF LAKEVILLE METRO AREADAKOTA COUNTY
TABLE HC-3
HOUSING UNITS BY STRUCTURE & TENURE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
80.1%
15.1%
0.2%0.3%1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
3.2%
23.8%
33.1%
0.7%1.5%
9.8%
1.2%
10.2%
15.3%
2.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
1,
detached
1,
attached
2 3 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 or
more
Mobile
home
Pct. of Housing Units By Structure & Tenure
City of Lakeville (2020)
Owner Renter
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 58
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Mortgage Status
Table HC-4 shows mortgage status and average values from the American Community Survey
for 2020 (5-Year). Mortgage status provides information on the cost of homeownership when
analyzed in conjunction with mortgage payment data. A mortgage refers to all forms of debt
where the property is pledged as security for repayment of debt. A first mortgage has priority
claim over any other mortgage or if it’s the only mortgage. A second (and sometimes third)
mortgage is called a “junior mortgage,” a home equity line of credit (HELOC) would also fall into
this category. Finally, a housing unit without a mortgage is owned free and clear and is debt
free.
• Approximately 77% of Lakeville homeowners have a mortgage/debt, while 23% own houses
without a mortgage. These figures are slightly higher as compared to Dakota County where
approximately 72% of homeowners have a mortgage.
• The median value for homes with a mortgage for the City of Lakeville homeowners is ap-
proximately $331,900, while the median value for homes without a mortgage is $303,000, a
difference of 9.1%. By comparison, the median value for homes with a mortgage in Dakota
County is about $284,700.
• Among homeowners with a mortgage, roughly 2% have a second mortgage, 10% have a
home equity loan, and only 0.4% have both a second mortgage and home equity loan.
24.9%34.6%0.8%1.6%10.3%1.3%10.6%16.0%11.8%17.8%2.5%4.1%5.3%7.3%17.7%33.5%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1, detached 1, attached 2 3 to 4 5 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 49 50 or more
Rental Units by Structure (Pct. of Total)
Lakeville Dakota Co.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 59
Owner-Occupied Housing Units by Value
Table HC-5 presents data on housing values summarized by nine price ranges. Housing value
refers to the estimated price point the property would sell if the property were for sale. For
single-family and townhome properties, value includes both the land and the structure. For
condominium units, value refers to only the unit.
• The majority of the owner-occupied housing stock in the City of Lakeville is estimated to be
valued between $300,000 and $399,999 (30%). Approximately 14% is valued under
$200,000, 28% is between $200,000 and $299,999, and 58% is over $300,000.
• The median value among homes in Lakeville is roughly 15% higher than homes in Dakota
County and nearly 32% higher than homes in Minnesota.
• By comparison, Dakota County has a median home value of $280,300, compared to
$325,400 in Lakeville. About 57% of Dakota County homes have a home value of $299,999
or less, and 43% are worth $300,000 or more.
MN
Mortgage Status No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.Pct.
Housing units without a mortgage 4,600 23.1%34,080 27.8%241,486 29.2%31.2%
Housing units with a mortgage/debt 15,304 76.9%88,670 72.2%584,403 70.8%68.8%
Second mortgage only 460 2.3%3,159 2.6%22,719 2.8%4.3%
Home equity loan only 2,016 10.1%11,048 9.0%71,303 8.6%11.4%
Both second mortgage and equity loan 84 0.4%440 0.4%2,527 0.3%0.6%
No second mortgage or equity loan 12,655 63.6%73,514 59.9%484,665 58.7%52.5%
Total 19,904 100.0%122,750 100.0%825,889 100.0%100.0%
Average Value by Mortgage Status
Housing units with a mortgage $245,100
Housing units without a mortgage $215,300
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HC-4
OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING UNITS BY MORTGAGE STATUS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
$303,000 $268,400 $266,070
CITY OF LAKEVILLE DAKOTA COUNTY METRO AREA
$331,900 $284,700 $285,429
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 60
MN
Home Value No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.Pct.
Less than $50,000 522 2.6%3,208 2.6%20,110 2.4%5.2%
$50,000-$99,999 264 1.3%2,582 2.1%16,556 2.0%8.5%
$100,000-$149,999 583 2.9%5,922 4.8%46,729 5.7%13.8%
$150,000-$199,999 1,447 7.3%16,019 13.1%114,398 13.9%18.9%
$200,000-$249,999 2,237 11.2%20,569 16.8%144,451 17.5%15.4%
$250,000-$299,999 3,361 16.9%21,567 17.6%127,593 15.4%11.6%
$300,000-$399,999 6,046 30.4%29,269 23.8%168,199 20.4%13.3%
$400,000-$499,999 3,487 17.5%13,943 11.4%85,767 10.4%6.1%
Greater than $500,000 1,957 9.8%9,671 7.9%102,086 12.4%7.2%
Total 19,904 100.0%122,750 100.0%825,889 100.0%100.0%
Median Home Value $235,700
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HC-5
OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS BY VALUE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
$325,400 $279,881$280,300
METRO AREADAKOTA COUNTYCITY OF LAKEVILLE
2.6%1.3%2.9%7.3%11.2%16.9%30.4%17.5%9.8%2.6%2.1%4.8%13.1%16.8%17.6%23.8%11.4%7.9%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
Pct. of Owner Units by Value (2020)
Lakveille Dakota Co.
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 61
Renter-Occupied Units by Contract Rent
Table HC-6 presents information on the monthly housing costs for renters called contract rent
(also known as asking rent). Contract rent is the monthly rent agreed to regardless of any utili-
ties, furnishings, fees, or services that may be included.
• The median contract rent in Lakeville and Dakota County was $1,373 and $973, respectively.
Based on a 30% allocation of income to housing, a household in Lakeville would need an in-
come of about $54,920 to afford an average monthly rent of $1,373, while a household
would need $38,920 to afford an average rent in Dakota County.
• Only 24% of Lakeville renters have monthly rents below $1,000. By comparison, 37% of Da-
kota County renters and 43% of Metro Area renters pay rents under $1,000.
• Within Dakota County, most renters (60%) are paying a contract rent of $1,000 or more.
Housing Units by Occupancy Status & Tenure
Tenure is a key variable that analyzes the propensity for householders to rent or own their
housing unit. Tenure is an integral statistic used by numerous governmental agencies and pri-
vate sector industries to assess neighborhood stability. Table HC-7 shows historic trends from
2010 and 2020.
MN
Contract Rent No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.Pct.
No Cash Rent 129 4.4%1,033 2.5%8,730 2.3%4.1%
Cash Rent 2,787 95.6%39680 97.5%366137 97.7%95.9%
$0 to $249 59 2.0%677 1.7%14,957 4.0%5.1%
$250-$499 124 4.3%2,328 5.7%20,996 5.6%10.4%
$500-$749 290 9.9%3,356 8.2%31,831 8.5%16.8%
$750-$999 233 8.0%8,795 21.6%94,171 25.1%23.4%
$1,000+2,081 71.4%24,524 60.2%204,182 54.5%40.2%
Total 2,916 100.0%40,713 100.0%374,867 100.0%100.0%
Median Contract Rent $816
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau - American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2020
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
RENTER-OCCUPIED UNITS BY CONTRACT RENT
TABLE HC-6
$1,373 $937$973
METRO AREADAKOTA COUNTYCITY OF LAKEVILLE
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 62
• Although the proportion of owner-occupied housing units remained nearly the same over
the decade, the number of owner-occupied units increased by 3,521 between 2010 to 2020.
The marginal increase in proportion of owner-occupied units in part is due to a decrease in
vacant units.
• Dakota County had significantly higher percentage of renter-occupied units compared to
the City of Lakeville (24% compared to 13% in 2020). However, there are fewer vacant units
in Lakeville than in Dakota County (1.5% compared to 2.8%).
• About 1.5% of the City of Lakeville’s housing stock was vacant in 2020. It is important to
note, however, that the Census’s definition of vacant housing units includes: units that have
been rented or sold, but not yet occupied, seasonal housing (vacation or second homes),
housing for migrant workers, and even boarded-up housing. Thus, the U.S. Census vacancy
figures are not always a true indicator of adequate housing available for new households
wishing to move into the area.
Year/Occupancy No.Pct.No.Pct.Pct.Pct.
Owner-Occupied 16,383 84.2 116,308 72.9 782,475 65.9
Renter-Occupied 2,300 11.8 35,752 22.4 335,274 28.2
Vacant 773 4.0 7,538 4.7 69,237 5.8
Total 19,456 100.0 159,598 100.0 1,186,986 100.0
Owner-Occupied 19,904 85.9 122,750 73.0 825,889 65.9
Renter-Occupied 2,916 12.6 40,713 24.2 374,867 29.9
Vacant 348 1.5 4,789 2.8 51,747 4.1
Total 23,168 100.0 168,252 100.0 1,252,503 100.0
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HC-7
HOUSING UNITS BY OCCUPANCY STATUS & TENURE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2010 TO 2020
2020
CITY OF LAKEVILLE DAKOTA COUNTY METRO AREA
2010
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 63
Housing Characteristics Comparison to Peer Cities
Table HC-8 provides a housing characteristics summary comparison for Lakeville and peer cities.
With the guidance of Lakeville city staff, the following communities were identified as peer cit-
ies and are included in the analysis: Apple Valley, Blaine, Burnsville, Cottage Grove, Eagan, Ma-
ple Grove, Plymouth, and Woodbury. The peer cities were identified to be similar to Lakeville by
their population or within a similar geography.
• Compared to the peer cities, Lakeville’s age of owner-occupied housing stock (1996) is tied
with Woodbury for the newest owner-occupied housing units. The age of renter-occupied
homes (1997) ranks first among peer cities.
• The most prominent structure among housing units is one-unit, detached homes (75%) in
Lakeville. This ranks it second among peer cities, with only Cottage Grove having a higher
proportion of one-unit, detached homes (82%). Additionally, Lakeville had the lowest pro-
portion of structures with 5 or more units (6%).
• The City of Lakeville had the third highest median home value ($325,400) and median con-
tract rent ($1,373) in 2020 compared to the selected peer cities. Blaine had the lowest me-
dian home value ($240,700), while Eagan had the lowest median contract rent ($1,168).
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 64
Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.Num Pct.
Housing Characteristics Summary
Median Year Built
Owner-Occ. (2020)
Renter-Occ. (2020)
Housing Units by Structure (2020)
1, detached 16,821 |75.1%11,361 |54.7%16,093 |73.1%11,621 |48.1%10,264 |81.7%14,201 |51.8%17,562 |61.4%18,512 |56.4%15,873 |60.0%
1, attached 4,063 |18.1%5,614 |27.0%4,102 |18.6%4,420 |18.3%1,425 |11.3%5,688 |20.7%7,521 |26.3%5,887 |17.9%7,046 |26.6%
2 - 4 175 |0.8%332 |1.6%256 |1.2%696 |2.9%77 |0.6%630 |2.3%442 |1.5%550 |1.7%573 |2.2%
5+1,349 |6.0%3,458 |16.7%1,563 |7.1%7,445 |30.8%801 |6.4%6,914 |25.2%3,079 |10.8%7,875 |24.0%2,970 |11.2%
Median Home Value (2020)
Median Contract Rent (2020)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
$1,328
$336,600
$1,400$1,373 $1,300 $1,179 $1,328 $1,168
$325,400 $270,600 $263,700 $298,700 $368,600$261,500$240,700 $299,700
1996 1986 1979 1987 19871986
19941997
WoodburyCottage GroveBlaine Maple Grove
1996
Lakeville Apple Valley Burnsville Eagan Plymouth
$1,293 $1,462
TABLE HC-8
HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS PEER CITIES COMPARISON
CITY OF LAKEVILLE & PEER CITIES
1992 1990
1992 1996199519831987 19871986
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 65
Introduction
For purposes of our analysis, rental properties are classified rental projects into two groups,
general occupancy and senior (age-restricted). All senior properties are included in the Senior
Housing Analysis section of this report. The general occupancy rental properties are divided
into three groups: market rate (those without income restrictions); affordable or shallow-sub-
sidy housing (those receiving tax credits or another type of shallow-subsidy and where there is
a quoted rent for the unit and a maximum income that cannot be exceeded by the tenant); and
subsidized or deep-subsidy properties (those with income restrictions at 30% or less of AMI
where rental rates are based on 30% of their gross adjusted income).
Overview of Rental Market Conditions
Tables R-1 display average monthly rent and vacancy rate data from Marquette Advisors Apart-
ment Trends report for the Twin Cities Metro Area along with the Lakeville / Farmington sub-
market and Apple Valley / Rosemont submarket. The data is shown for the 3rd Quarter 2021
and 2022, the most recent data available.
• The equilibrium vacancy rate for rental housing is considered to be 5.0%. This allows for
normal turnover and an adequate supply of alternatives for prospective renters. During the
third quarter of 2021, the vacancy rate was 5.1% in the Lakeville / Farmington submarket
and increased drastically to 16% by the second quarter of 2022. It should be noted that the
Lakeville / Farmington submarket has experienced a substantial number of new deliveries,
which in part, accounts for the increased number of vacant units and elevated vacancy rate.
• During the third quarter of 2022, the vacancy rate in the surrounding Apple Valley / Rose-
mont submarket was 5% and 4.0% in the Twin Cities Metro Area overall. Vacancies were the
lowest among one-bedroom plus den units (2.3%), three-bedroom units (2.7%), and two-
bedroom units (3.7%) in the Twin Cities Metro Area.
• The average rent in the Lakeville / Farmington submarket was $1,530 through the third
quarter of 2022, while the average rent in the Apple Valley / Rosemont submarket was
$1,445 and $1,398 in the Twin Cities Metro Area. The average rent in the Lakeville / Farm-
ington submarket decreased 1.4% between the third quarter 2021 and the third quarter
2022.
• Average rents in the Lakeville / Farmington submarket are about 6% higher than in the Ap-
ple Valley / Rosemont submarket and about 9% higher than across the Twin Cities Metro
Area in the third quarter of 2022. These higher rents are in part due to a newer housing
stock.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 66
Total Studio 1 BR 1 BR + D 2 BR 2 BR + D 3 BR
Units 1,179 --572 29 407 18 151
No. Vacant 189 --123 3 44 0 19
Avg. Rent $1,530 --$1,433 $1,548 $1,572 $1,977 $1,724
Vacancy 16.0%--21.5%10.3%10.8%0.0%12.6%
Units 935 --326 29 415 18 145
No. Vacant 48 --25 1 15 0 7
Avg. Rent $1,552 --$1,446 $1,557 $1,625 $1,977 $1,527
Vacancy 5.1%--7.7%3.4%3.6%0.0%4.8%
Units 2,520 152 931 35 942 58 381
No. Vacant 127 4 84 1 30 0 4
Avg. Rent $1,445 $1,271 $1,319 $1,523 $1,463 $1,729 $1,683
Vacancy 5.0%2.6%9.0%2.9%3.2%0.0%1.0%
Units 2,396 128 871 35 906 58 377
No. Vacant 77 4 45 1 19 0 4
Avg. Rent $1,393 $1,292 $1,328 $1,463 $1,372 $1,660 $1,540
Vacancy 3.2%3.1%5.2%2.9%2.1%0.0%1.1%
Units 171,856 12,694 76,518 3,670 68,049 1,807 8,734
No. Vacant 6,794 813 3,056 85 2,493 87 239
Avg. Rent $1,398 $1,172 $1,240 $1,562 $1,522 $2,110 $1,864
Vacancy 4.0%6.4%4.0%2.3%3.7%4.8%2.7%
Units 162,009 11,279 71,320 3,657 65,013 2,286 8,072
No. Vacant 6,343 730 2,748 107 2,384 129 230
Avg. Rent $1,320 $1,107 $1,173 $1,528 $1,449 $2,042 $1,733
Vacancy 3.9%6.5%3.9%2.9%3.7%5.6%2.8%
Sources: Marquette Advisors; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Note: The Twin Cities Metro Area consists of the following counties: Anoka, Carver, Dakota,
Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, and Washington.Q3/2021TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
Q3/2022Q3/2021APPLE VALLEY / ROSEMONT SUBMARKET
Q3/2022Q3/2021TABLE R-1
AVERAGE RENTS/VACANCIES TRENDS
THIRD QUARTER 2021 & 2022
LAKEVILLE / FARMINGTON SUBMARKET
Q3/2022
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 67
$1,530$1,445$1,39816.0%
5.0%
4.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
LAKEVILLE SUB.APPLE VALLEY SUB.METRO AREA Vacancy RateAverage RentAverage Rent & Vacancy Rate, Q3 2022
Avg. Rent Vacancies
16.0%21.5%10.8%12.6%5.0%2.6%9.0%3.2%1.0%4.0%6.4%4.0%3.7%2.7%0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
TOTAL STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BRVacancy RateAverage Vacancy Rate by Unit Type, Q3 2022
LAKEVILLE SUB.APPLE VALLEY SUB.METRO AREA
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 68
General-Occupancy Multifamily Rental Projects
Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC identified and surveyed larger multifamily rental proper-
ties of 12 or more units in Lakeville, Minnesota. Table R-2 summarizes information on market
rate, affordable, and subsidized general occupancy projects. Table R-3 summarizes unit fea-
tures and common area amenities among all general-occupancy housing developments.
Our research of Lakeville’s general occupancy rental market included a survey of 1 9 market rate
and affordable apartment properties (12 units and larger) in December 2022. These projects
represent a combined total of 1,947 units, including 1,660 market rate units and 287 affordable
units.
Although we were able to contact and obtain up-to-date information on the majority of rental
properties, there were a few projects that chose not to participate in this survey or were unable
to reach and had to rely on information from third party sources.
At the time of our survey, 136 market rate units and 14 affordable units were vacant, resulting
in an overall vacancy rate of 7.7%. The industry standard is a vacancy rate of 5% for a stabilized
rental market, this rate promotes competitive rates, ensures adequate choice, and allows for
unit turnover. The elevated number of vacancies are, in part, due to the substantial number of
new deliveries.
$1,530$1,433$1,572$1,724$1,445$1,271$1,319$1,463$1,683$1,398$1,172$1,240$1,522$1,864$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
TOTAL STUDIO 1 BR 2 BR 3 BRAvg. RentAverage Rent by Unit Type, Q3 2022
LAKEVILLE SUB.APPLE VALLEY SUB.METRO AREA
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 69
Year Units/Avg
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Rent
Lakeville Pointe 2017 49 9 -1BR 750 -752 $1,091 -$1,101 $1,096 $1.45 -$1.46
18010 Kenwood Trl 0 26 -2BR 966 -1,183 $1,328 -$1,553 $1,441 $1.31 -$1.37
Lakeville, MN 0.0%14 -3BR 1,234 -1,289 $1,529 -$1,541 $1,535 $1.20 -$1.24
Amenities / Notes:
Keystone Crossing THs 2017 36 23 -2BR 980 -1,144 $870 -$870 $870 $0.76 -$0.89
20688 Keystone Ave 5 13 -3BR 1,234 -1,422 $965 -$965 $965 $0.68 -$0.78
Lakeville, MN 13.9%
Amenities / Notes:
Meadowlark THs 2010 40 6 -1BR 893 -934 $755 -$755 $755 $0.81 -$0.85
20904 Holiday Ave 4 24 -2BR 980 -1,144 $870 -$870 $870 $0.76 -$0.89
Lakeville, MN 10.0%10 -3BR 1,234 -1,422 $965 -$965 $965 $0.68 -$0.78
Amenities / Notes:
Prairie Crossing 2004 40 20 -2BR 980 -1,144 $870 -$870 $870 $0.76 -$0.89
20340 Icefall Trl 1 20 -3BR 1,234 -1,422 $965 -$965 $965 $0.68 -$0.78
Lakeville, MN 2.5%
Amenities / Notes:
Country Lane THs 2001 29 1 -1BR 893 -934 $755 -$755 $755 $0.81 -$0.85
7754 210th St W 0 14 -2BR 980 -1,144 $870 -$870 $870 $0.76 -$0.89
Lakeville, MN 0.0%14 -3BR 1,234 -1,422 $965 -$965 $965 $0.68 -$0.78
Amenities / Notes:
Cedar Valley THs 1998 25 1 -1BR 893 -934 $755 -$755 $755 $0.81 -$0.85
17326 Glacier Wy 1 14 -2BR 980 -1,144 $870 -$870 $870 $0.76 -$0.89
Lakeville, MN 4.0%10 -3BR 1,234 -1,422 $965 -$965 $965 $0.68 -$0.78
Amenities / Notes:
Lakeville Court Apts. & THs 1995 52 20 -2BR 880 -880 $1,140 -$1,362 $1,251 $1.30 -$1.55
20390 Dodd Blvd 3 32 -3BR 1,226 -1,386 $1,313 -$1,503 $1,408 $1.07 -$1.08
Lakeville, MN 5.8%
Amenities / Notes:
Colonial Apts.1970 16 6 -1BR 620 -620 $1,050 -$1,050 $1,050 $1.69 -$1.69
20596 Hollins Ave W 0 10 -2BR 700 -700 $1,110 -$1,110 $1,110 $1.59 -$1.59
Lakeville, MN 0.0%
Amenities / Notes:
287
14
4.9%
This development is part of the Dakota County Workforce Family Townhome Housing Program (household
eligibility restrictions apply). Playground, picnic area, surface and attached garage parking, and basketball court.
-- Table Continued --
BBQ grills, picnic area, community room, fitness center, surface and attached garage parking, dishwasher,
patio/balcony, built-in microwave, and in-unit washer and dryer.
Surface and detached garage parking, wall A/C unit, and common area laundry facilities. Water/heat/sewer/trash
included in rent.
Affordable Total Units / Vacant:
This development is part of the Dakota County Workforce Family Townhome Housing Program (household
eligibility restrictions apply). Picnic area, surface and attached garage parking, central AC, in-unit washer and
dryer, and patio.
This development is part of the Dakota County Workforce Family Townhome Housing Program (household
eligibility restrictions apply). Basketball court, picnic area, playground, surface and attached garage parking,
central AC, and in-unit washer and dryer.
This development is part of the Dakota County Workforce Family Townhome Housing Program (household
eligibility restrictions apply). Basketball court, picnic area, playground, surface and attached garage parking,
central AC, in-unit washer and dryer, and patio.
This development is part of the Dakota County Workforce Family Townhome Housing Program (household
eligibility restrictions apply). Basketball court, picnic area, playground, surface and attached garage parking,
central AC, in-unit washer and dryer, and patio.
TABLE R-2
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Monthly Rent
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Per Sq Ft.
AFFORDABLE
Renovated 2012. Surface and attached garage parking, wall A/C unit, playground, picnic area, in-unit washer and
dryer in select units, common area laundry facilities, dishwasher, and walk-in closets. Water/sewer/heat/trash
included in rent.
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 70
Year Units/Avg
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Rent
Arris Apts.2022 197 34 -Studio 515 -575 $1,250 -$1,403 $1,327 $2.43 -$2.44
10805 173rd St W (Sept.)92 99 -1BR 703 -794 $1,450 -$2,025 $1,738 $2.06 -$2.55
Lakeville, MN 46.7%11 -1BR+D 875 -875 $1,853 -$1,853 $1,853 $2.12 -$2.12
37 -2BR 867 -1,199 $1,810 -$2,350 $2,080 $1.96 -$2.09
16 -3BR 1,321 -1,333 $2,250 -$2,978 $2,614 $1.70 -$2.23
Amenities / Notes:
Northlake Lofts 2022 208 32 -Studio 515 -706 $1,196 -$1,465 $1,331 $2.08 -$2.32
18400 Orchard Trl (Apr.)5 109 -1BR 686 -753 $1,430 -$1,543 $1,487 $2.05 -$2.08
Lakeville, MN 2.4%7 -1BR+D 809 -1,234 $1,600 -$1,902 $1,751 $1.54 -$1.98
52 -2BR 1,097 -1,271 $1,855 -$2,160 $2,008 $1.69 -$1.70
8 -3BR 1,528 -1,580 $2,405 -$2,447 $2,426 $1.55 -$1.57
Amenities / Notes:
Edison at Spirit 2020 160 72 -1BR 752 -995 $1,485 -$2,100 $1,793 $1.97 -$2.11
5181 161st St 0 2 -1BR+D 1,010 -1,010 $1,725 -$1,725 $1,725 $1.71 -$1.71
Lakeville, MN 0.0%44 -2BR 1,100 -1,133 $1,852 -$1,887 $1,870 $1.67 -$1.68
42 -3BR 1,337 -1,337 $2,265 -$2,265 $2,265 $1.69 -$1.69
Amenities / Notes:
Springs at Lakeville 2020 260 26 -Studio 662 -662 $1,198 -$1,594 $1,396 $1.81 -$2.41
17400 Glacier Way 14 104 -1BR 798 -938 $1,307 -$1,746 $1,527 $1.64 -$1.86
Lakeville, MN 5.4%104 -2BR 1,088 -1,209 $2,140 -$2,745 $2,443 $1.97 -$2.27
26 -3BR 1,334 -1,436 $2,182 -$2,545 $2,364 $1.64 -$1.77
Amenities / Notes:
Lakeside Flats 2020 120 26 -Studio 588 -650 $1,318 -$1,338 $1,328 $2.06 -$2.24
16255 Kenyon Ave 4 54 -1BR 702 -853 $1,426 -$1,496 $1,461 $1.75 -$2.03
Lakeville, MN 3.3%34 -2BR 976 -1,059 $1,846 -$1,866 $1,856 $1.76 -$1.89
6 -3BR 1,218 -1,679 $2,131 -$2,828 $2,480 $1.68 -$1.75
Amenities / Notes:
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Size Rent Per Sq Ft.
Patio/balcony, in-unit washer and dryer, walk-in closets, outdoor pool, BBQ grills, fitness center, surface and
detached/attached garage parking, dog park, clubhouse, dishwasher, and built-in microwave.
Fitness center, BBQ grills, study room, dog park, surface and underground garage parking, clubroom, bike
storage, outdoor lounge, fire pits, pet wash station, sky deck, patio/balconies, in-unit washer and dryer, built-in
microwave, and dishwasher.
MARKET RATE - STABILIZED
TABLE R-2
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Rent
Unit Mix
Fitness center, rooftop sky lounge, outdoor pool, club room, golf simulator, work-from-home spaces, coffee bar,
pet spa, playground, in-unit washer and dryer, walk-in closets, patio/balconies, surface and underground garage
parking, and dishwasher.
-- Table Continued --
Outdoor pool, fitness center, clubhouse, courtyard, bike storage, BBQ area, surface and garage parking, dog park,
patio/balcony, in-unit washer and dryer, and dishwasher.
Game room, clubroom, BBQ grill, outdoor kitchen, outdoor pool, elec. car charger, dog park, sundeck, fitness
center, work from home spaces, surface and underground garage parking, patio/balcony, dishwasher, and in-unit
washer and dryer.
MARKET RATE - INITIAL LEASE-UP
Monthly
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 71
Year Units/Avg
Property Name/Location Built Vacant Rent
Edison at Avonlea 2018 146 80 -1BR 717 -875 $1,347 -$1,561 $1,454 $1.78 -$1.88
7255 181st St W 0 15 -1BR+D 963 -991 $1,580 -$1,587 $1,584 $1.60 -$1.64
Lakeville, MN 0.0%42 -2BR 1,100 -1,173 $1,690 -$1,795 $1,743 $1.53 -$1.54
9 -3BR 1,415 -1,415 $1,985 -$2,025 $2,005 $1.40 -$1.43
Amenities / Notes:
Lakeville Woods 2007 77 1 -Studio 755 -755 $1,297 -$1,297 $1,297 $1.72 -$1.72
18351 Kenyon Ave 4 8 -1BR 850 -890 $1,417 -$1,496 $1,457 $1.67 -$1.68
Lakeville, MN 5.2%12 -1BR+D 969 -1,124 $1,647 -$1,660 $1,654 $1.48 -$1.70
26 -2BR 1,164 -1,370 $1,672 -$1,886 $1,779 $1.38 -$1.44
18 -2BR+D 1,284 -1,349 $1,695 -$1,793 $1,744 $1.32 -$1.33
9 -3BR 1,444 -1,460 $2,209 -$2,209 $2,209 $1.51 -$1.53
3 -3BR+D 1,460 -1,460 $2,271 -$2,271 $2,271 $1.56 -$1.56
Amenities / Notes:
LakeVillage Apts.1991 70 20 -1BR 700 -700 $1,220 -$1,220 $1,220 $1.74 -$1.74
8500 210th St W 2 35 -2BR 930 -930 $1,325 -$1,325 $1,325 $1.42 -$1.42
Lakeville, MN 2.9%15 -3BR 1,140 -1,140 $1,595 -$1,595 $1,595 $1.40 -$1.40
Amenities / Notes:
SouthFork THs 1988 272 68 -1BR 775 -775 $1,440 -$1,535 $1,488 $1.86 -$1.98
17956 Jubilee Way 5 136 -2BR 1,000 -1,000 $1,700 -$1,735 $1,718 $1.70 -$1.74
Lakeville, MN 1.8%68 -3BR 1,175 -1,175 $2,010 -$2,010 $2,010 $1.71 -$1.71
Amenities / Notes:
The Oaks of Lakeville 1971 106 54 -1BR 780 -820 $1,199 -$1,299 $1,249 $1.54 -$1.58
20464 Iberia Ave 9 2 -1BR+D 820 -975 $1,399 -$1,399 $1,399 $1.43 -$1.71
Lakeville, MN 8.5%50 -2BR 820 -1,070 $1,499 -$1,555 $1,527 $1.45 -$1.83
Amenities / Notes:
Village Dweller Apts.1966 44 16 -1BR 650 -650 $1,145 -$1,145 $1,145 $1.76 -$1.76
20988 Holt Ave 1 4 -1BR+D 725 -725 $1,175 -$1,175 $1,175 $1.62 -$1.62
Lakeville, MN 2.3%24 -2BR 875 -875 $1,220 -$1,220 $1,220 $1.39 -$1.39
Amenities / Notes:
197
92
46.7%
1,463
44
3.0%
Surface and attached garage parking, playground, dishwasher, and wall A/C unit. Gas/water/heat/trash included
in rent.
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Monthly Rent
Unit Mix Unit Size Rent Per Sq Ft.
MARKET RATE
Surface and underground garage parking, BBQ grills, picnic area, clubroom, fitness center, car wash station,
patio/balconies, in-unit washer and dryer, fireplace, dishwasher, and built-in microwave.
Sources: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Clubhouse, co-working spaces, outdoor fire pit, sundeck, fitness center, community kitchen, courtyard, outdoor
pool, playground, BBQ grills, built-in microwave, central AC, dishwasher, in-unit washer and dryer,
patio/balconies, surface and garage parking, and dog park.
Market Rate (Lease-up) Total Units / Vacant
Patio/balconies, BBQ grills, picnic area, bike storage, playground, surface and detached garage parking, outdoor
pool, common area laundry facilities, dishwasher, and wall A/C unit.
Wall A/C unit, surface and detached garage parking, and in-unit washer and dryer. All utilities included except
electric.
Game room, dog park, coffee bar, clubroom, outdoor pool, pet spa, fitness center, surface and garage parking
($50-$125/mo.), electric car charging station, car wash station, patio/balcony, in-unit washer and dryer,
dishwasher, built-in microwave, and walk-in closets.
Market Rate (Stabilized) Total Units / Vacant
DECEMBER 2022
TABLE R-2
GENERAL OCCUPANCY RENTAL PROPERTIES
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 72
Affordable
• There are a total of eight affordable projects in Lakeville with 287 total units. Combined, 14
units were vacant units as of December 2022, posting a vacancy rate of 4.9%. Typically,
subsidized and affordable rental properties should be able to maintain vacancy rates of 3%
or less in most housing markets. It should be noted that this elevated vacancy rate is in part
due to the time-consuming nature of processing resident applications. The Dakota County
CDA noted the following wait lists:
Workforce Family Townhomes
Unit Type Wait List
One-Bedroom 786
Two-Bedroom 3,787
Three-Bedroom 2,349
• Approximately 44% of affordable multifamily housing units were built between 2010 and
2019. Additionally, 27% of affordable multifamily units were built in the 1990s and 24%
were built in the 2000s.
• The Dakota County Community Development Agency (CDA) owns five affordable properties
in Lakeville, totaling 170 units. These units are affordable at or below 60% Area Median In-
come (AMI) and include one-, two-, and three-bedroom unit types.
Rent Avg. Avg.
Unit Type No. Pct.Avg.Low High Size Rent/Sq. Ft.
1BR 23 8.0%$965 $755 -$1,101 773 $1.25
2BR 151 52.6%$1,035 $870 -$1,553 1,016 $1.02
3BR 113 39.4%$1,161 $965 -$1,541 1,314 $0.88
Total 287 100.0%$1,079 $755 -$1,553 1,114 $0.97
Studio 119 7.2%$1,343 $1,196 -$1,594 606 $2.22
1BR 684 41.2%$1,521 $1,145 -$2,100 787 $1.93
1BR+D 53 3.2%$1,645 $1,175 $1,902 957 $1.72
2BR 584 35.2%$1,859 $1,220 -$2,745 1,062 $1.75
2BR+D 18 1.1%$1,744 $1,695 $1,793 1,317 $1.32
3BR 199 12.0%$2,167 $1,595 -$2,978 1,293 $1.68
3BR+D 3 0.2%$2,271 $2,271 $2,271 1,460 $1.56
Total 1,660 100.0%$1,712 $1,145 -$2,978 944 $1.81
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
TABLE R-3
RENT SUMMARY
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Mix Rent Range
AFFORDABLE
MARKET RATE (LEASE-UP & STABILIZED)
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 73
Market Rate
• Most of Lakeville’s market rate general occupancy rental housing has been built in 2020 or
newer, as 57% of units (5 properties) were built since 2020.
• A total of 136 vacant units were found in market rate rental projects, resulting in a vacancy
rate of 8.2% as of December 2022. As mentioned earlier, the elevated number of vacancies
are, in part, due to the substantial number of new deliveries. Excluding newer properties
that are in the initial lease-up phase (Arris Apts. and Northlake Lofts), the vacancy rate
across remaining properties is 3.1%, which is below market equilibrium of 5%.
• Turnover at many apartments is primarily driven by residents purchasing homes or leaving
the area for employment opportunities. Many tenants will stay in a unit for longer lease
terms; especially older adults/seniors.
• Nearly half of the market rate rental projects surveyed are one-bedroom units. The
breakout by unit type is summarized below.
o Studio units: 7%
o One-bedroom units: 41%
o Two-bedroom units: 35%
o Three-bedroom units: 12%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2020+2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s Properties (#)Units (#)Multifamily Rental (Affordable) Summary by Year Built
Units Properties
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 74
• The following is the monthly average rent for market rate units:
o Studio units: $1,343/month
o One-bedroom units: $1,521/month
o Two-bedroom units: $1,859/month
o Three-bedroom units: $2,167/month
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2020+2010s 2000s 1990s 1980s 1970s 1960s Properties (#)Units (#)Multifamily Rental (Market Rate) Summary by Year Built
Units Properties
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 75
Select General Occupancy Rental Housing Properties
Arris Apts.
Meadowlark Townhomes
The Oaks of Lakeville
Lakeside Flats
Cedar Valley Townhomes
SouthFork Townhomes
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 76
Prairie Crossing Townhomes
Lakeville Pointe
The Edison at Spirit Apts.
The Edison at Spirit Townhomes
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 77
Lakeville Multifamily Rental Properties
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 78
Housing Choice Voucher Program
The Housing Choice Voucher Program (also known as Section 8) utilizes the existing private
rental market in Dakota County to provide decent, safe and sanitary housing opportunities for
low-income families, elderly, handicapped and disabled persons at an af fordable cost. The CDA
administers this federal program for all jurisdictions in Dakota County. The CDA assists over
2,700 households through this program. As of December 2022, there were 186 vouchers used
in the City of Lakeville.
• Program participants pay 30% of their adjusted monthly gross income toward rent. The
program provides rental assistance which is the difference between participants’ rent
portion and the contract rent. To be eligible, households must have incomes at or below
50% of median.
• Households that need rental assistance can be housed in private market apartments us-
ing a Housing Choice Voucher through the Section 8 Housing Program. The Voucher is
portable and remains with the household.
• Landlords may agree to accept tenants with Housing Choice Vouchers. A landlord is ad-
vised that they assess what rents are being charged in their geographic area for similar
types of units prior to applying to accept Section 8 tenants. The maximum assistance a
household is allowed under the Voucher program is the difference between 30% of the
tenant’s payment and the monthly payment standard by unit size as identified by the
CDA. The tenant is required to pay the difference between the allowable subsidy, their
income and the rent being charged. If the rent charged exceeds the payment standards,
it may be difficult for the tenant to afford to pay the rent based on their income and the
assistance they receive.
• Program income limits for the Housing Choice Voucher Program for Dakota County CDA
are as follows:
Household Size Maximum Income
1PP $41,100
2PP $46,950
3PP $52,800
4PP $58,650
5PP $63,350
6PP $68,050
7PP $72,750
8PP $77,450
RENTAL MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 79
The payment standards for Dakota County CDA as of May 2022 were:
Unit Size Payment Standard
0 Bedroom $935
1 Bedroom $1,180
2 Bedroom $1,420
3 Bedroom $1,845
4 Bedroom $2,155
5 Bedroom $2,475
6 Bedroom $2,800
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 80
Senior Housing Defined
The term “senior housing” refers to any housing development that is restricted to people age
55 or older. Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of housing alternatives, which
occasionally overlap, thus making the differences somewhat ambiguous. However, the level of
support services offered best distinguishes them. Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC classi-
fies senior housing projects into five categories based on the level of support services offered:
Active Adult properties (or independent living without services available) are similar to a
general-occupancy building, in that they offer virtually no services but have age-restrictions
(typically 55 or 62 or older). Organized activities and occasionally a transportation program
are usually all that are available at these properties. Because of the lack of services, active
adult properties typically do not command the rent premiums of more service-enriched
senior housing. Active adult properties can have a rental or owner-occupied (condominium
or cooperative) format.
Independent Living properties (or senior living with services available) offer support
services such as meals and/or housekeeping, either on an optional basis or a limited
amount included in the rents. These properties typically dedicate a larger share of the
overall building area to common areas, in part, because the units are smaller than in a dult
housing and in part to encourage socialization among residents. Independent living
properties attract a slightly older target market than adult housing, typically seniors age 75
or older. Rents are also above those of the active adult buildings, even excluding the
services. Sponsorship by a nursing home, hospital or other health care organization is
common.
Assisted Living properties come in a variety of forms, but the target market for most is
generally the same: very frail seniors, typically age 80 or older (but can be much younger,
depending on their particular health situation), who are in need of extensive support
services and personal care assistance. Absent an assisted living option, these seniors would
otherwise need to move to a nursing facility. At a minimum, assisted living properties
include two meals per day and weekly housekeeping in the monthly fee, with the
availability of a third meal and personal care (either included in the monthly fee or for an
additional cost). Assisted living properties also have either staff on duty 24 hours per day or
at least 24-hour emergency response.
Memory Care properties, designed specifically for persons suffering from Alzheimer’s
disease or other dementias, is one of the newest trends in senior hous ing. Properties
consist mostly of suite-style or studio units or occasionally one-bedroom apartment-style
units, and large amounts of communal areas for activities and programming. In addition,
staff typically undergoes specialized training in the care of this population. Because of the
greater amount of individualized personal care required by residents, staffing ratios are
much higher than traditional assisted living and thus, the costs of care are also higher.
Unlike conventional assisted living, however, which deals almost exclusively with widows or
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 81
widowers, a higher proportion of persons afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease are in two -
person households. That means the decision to move a spouse into a memory care facility
involves the caregiver’s concern of incurring the costs of health care at a special facility
while continuing to maintain their home.
Skilled Nursing Care, or long-term care facilities, provides a living arrangement that
integrates shelter and food with medical, nursing, psychosocial and rehabilitation services
for persons who require 24-hour nursing supervision. Residents in skilled nursing homes
can be funded under Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans, HMOs, insurance as well as use of
private funds.
The senior housing products available today, when combined with long-term care facilities form
a full continuum of care, extending from virtually a purely residential model to a medically in-
tensive one. Often the services available at these properties overlap with another making
these definitions somewhat ambiguous. In general, active adult properties tend to attract
younger active seniors, who merely wish to rid themselves of home maintenance; independent
living properties serve independent seniors that desire support services (i.e., meals, housekeep-
ing, transportation, etc.) while assisted living properties tend to attract older, frail seniors who
need assistance with daily activities, but not the skilled medical care available only in a nursing
facility.
Senior Housing in Lakeville
As of December 2022, Maxfield Research identified 12 senior housing developments in Lake-
ville. Combined, these projects contain a total of 861 units with 28 vacancies resulting in an
overall vacancy rate of 3.3%. A normal vacancy rate for senior housing is 5% to 7% pending ser-
vice level. This low vacancy rate could indicate pent-up demand for new product across multi-
ple segments and incomes.
Table S-1 provides information on the surveyed senior housing properties in Lakeville. Infor-
mation in the table includes year built, number of units, unit mix, number of vacant units,
rents/fees, and general comments about each project.
Townhome or Apartment
FIGURE 1
Fully or Highly
Dependent on
Fully Independent
Lifestyle
Senior Housing Product Type
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Single-Family
Home
CONTINUUM OF HOUSING AND SERVICES FOR SENIORS
Age-Restricted Independent Single-Family,
Townhomes, Apartments, Condominiums,
Cooperatives
Independent Living Apartments w/
Optional Services
Independent Living Apartments w/
Intensive Services
Assisted Living
Memory Care
(Alzheimer's and
Dementia Units)
Nursing Facilities
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 82
Year No. of Total
Project Name/Location Built Units Vacant
Fairfield Terrace 1985 24 0 23 -1BR 560 -560
20720 Holt Ave 0.0%1 -2BR 700 -700
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Argonne Hills 2017 62 0 36 -1BR 720 -720 $732 -$732
17688 Junelle Path 0.0%26 -2BR 985 -985 $897 -$897
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Crossroad Commons 2009 87 2 45 -1BR 670 -747 $732 -$732
17725 Glasgow Ave 2.3%42 -2BR 932 -1,375 $897 -$897
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Main Street Manor 2001 51 1 34 -1BR 650 -750 $482 -$864
8725 209th St W 2.0%17 -2BR 850 -950 $714 -$1,094
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Windsor Plaza 1990 64 3 42 -1BR 650 -750 $482 -$864
20827 Howland Ave 4.7%22 -2BR 850 -950 $714 -$1,094
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
264 6
2.3%
Spero Senior Living 2020 70 0 57 -1BR 820 -950 $1,750 -$1,900
19351 Indiana Ave 0.0%13 -2BR 1,335 -1,335 $2,800 -$2,800
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
SUBSIDIZED ACTIVE ADULT
AFFORDABLE ACTIVE ADULT
Common area laundry facilities, community room, computer lab, surface parking,
and wall A/C unit. Heat included in rent.
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT
30% AGI
30% AGI
Surface and underground garage parking ($50/mo.), and community room.
Water/heat/trash/sewer included in rent.
Community room, surface and underground garage parking ($50/mo.), wall A/C unit,
and patio.
Rents are based on resident's income, minimum and maximum rents are shown.
Surface and underground garage parking ($50/mo.), wall A/C unit, community room
with fireplace, common area laundry facilities, and extra storage available.
Rents are based on resident's income, minimum and maximum rents are shown.
Library, courtyard, community room, fireplace, surface and underground garage
parking ($50/mo.), common area laundry facilities, community kitchen, and extra
storage available.
Affordable Active Adult Subtotal:
TABLE S-1
SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Description Monthly Rent /
Entry Fee / Sales Size (Sq. Ft.)Unit Mix
Patio/balconies, walk-in showers, walk-in closets, in-unit washer and dryer,
community room, surface and underground garage parking ($65/mo.), fitness
center, library, game room, and chapel.
-- Table Continued --
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 83
Year No. of Total
Project Name/Location Built Units Vacant
Kingsley Place 2021 55 2 16 -1BR 724 -761 $2,242 -$2,480
16890 Klamath Trl 3.6%3 -1BR+D 994 -994 $2,921 -$2,921
Lakeville, MN 26 -2BR 923 -1,198 $2,894 -$3,514
10 -2BR+D 1,146 -1,292 $3,436 -$3,956
Amenities / Notes:
Kingsley Shores 2013 35 1 8 -Studio 398 -483 $1,334 -$1,463
16880 Klamath Trl 2.9%21 -1BR 607 -754 $2,162 -$2,476
Lakeville, MN 6 -2BR 739 -1,136 $2,731 -$3,564
Amenities / Notes:
Fountains at Hosanna 2012 37 0 6 -Studio 457 -457 $2,115 -$2,115
9850 163rd St W 0.0%15 -1BR 526 -759 $2,150 -$3,475
Lakeville, MN 2 -1BR+D 779 -779 $3,470 -$3,470
14 -2BR 863 -1,009 $3,655 -$4,185
Amenities / Notes:
Highview Hills 2009 61 1 13 -1BR 807 -807 $2,825 -$2,825
20150 Highview Ave 1.6%38 -2BR 1,001 -1,211 $3,295 -$3,940
Lakeville, MN 10 -2BR+D 1,211 -1,211 $3,940 -$3,940
Amenities / Notes:
188 4
2.1%
-- Table Continued --
TABLE S-1
Fitness center, in-unit washer and dryer in select units, community patio/terrace,
garden boxes, surface and garage parking, patio/balconies with select units,
community room, library, and community kitchen.
Surface and underground garage parking ($65/mo.), additional storage ($45/mo.),
balconies with select units, wellness center, beauty salon / barber shop, library,
common area laundry facilities, theater, activity room, and indoor pool. Second
occupant fee: $53/month.
One-time Community fee: $2,000. Second occupancy fee: $150/month. Meal plans
range from $345-$885/month. Additional services available a la carte. Common area
laundry facilities, outdoor garden, on-site chapel, bistro, library, computer room,
fitness center, beauty salon / barber shop, theater, surface and underground garage
parking ($70/mo.), whirlpool, and game room. Waitlisted.
Monthly Rent /
Entry Fee / Sales Unit Mix
Independent Living Subtotal:
SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Clubroom with kitchen, surface and underground garage parking ($65/mo.),
additional storage ($45/mo.), theater room, library, card room, beauty
salon/barbershop, fireplaces (in select units), balconies (with select units), in-unit
washer and dryer, and walk-in closets. Second occupant fee: $120/month.
INDEPENDENT LIVING
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Description
Size (Sq. Ft.)
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 84
Year No. of Total
Project Name/Location Built Units Vacant
The Moments 2021 60 7 60 -Studio N/A -N/A $8,500 -$11,500
16258 Kenyon Ave 11.7%
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Kingsley Shores 2013 / 2020 35 1 8 -Studio 398 -482 $2,373 -$2,497
16880 Klamath Trl 2.9%22 -1BR 607 -754 $2,561 -$2,994
Lakeville, MN 5 -2BR 739 -1,136 $3,286 -$4,872
Amenities / Notes:
Fountains at Hosanna 2012 30 0 6 -Studio 457 -457 $2,115 -$2,115
9850 163rd St W 0.0%8 -1BR 526 -759 $2,150 -$3,475
Lakeville, MN 2 -1BR+D 779 -779 $3,470 -$3,470
14 -2BR 863 -1,009 $3,655 -$4,185
Amenities / Notes:
Highview Hills 2009 58 2 14 -Studio 512 -560 $2,135 -$2,180
20150 Highview Ave 3.4%7 -1BR 629 -787 $2,580 -$2,935
Lakeville, MN 22 -1BR+D 790 -910 $2,755 -$3,055
15 -2BR 906 -1,211 $3,085 -$4,065
Amenities / Notes:
183 10
5.5%
TABLE S-1
SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Description Monthly Rent /
Entry Fee / Sales Unit Mix Size (Sq. Ft.)
One-time community fee: $3,500. Three care packages (ranges shown). Custom care
packages available. Music and crafts room, gym, movie theater, salon, spa, and
dining room.
Assisted Living Subtotal:
ASSISTED LIVING
One-time community fee: $2,000. Second person fee: $150. Care packages ranging
from $1,455 to $7,075/month. Additional services available a la carte.
One-time community fee: $2,500. Care packages ranging from $1,000 to
$7,050/month. Additional services available a la carte. Fitness center, in-unit washer
and dryer in select units, community patio/terrace, garden boxes, surface and
garage parking, patio/balconies with select units, community room, library, and
community kitchen.
-- Table Continued --
Wellness center, beauty salon / barber shop, surface and underground garage
parking ($72/mo.), additional storage ($50/mo.), library, theater, activity room, and
indoor pool. Additional services available a la carte.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 85
Year No. of Total
Project Name/Location Built Units Vacant
BeeHive Homes of Lakeville 2019 20 0 10 -Semi-Pvt.N/A -N/A $3,650 -$3,800
20159 Iberia Ave 0.0%10 -Studio N/A -N/A $2,350 -$2,350
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
The Moments 2017 32 4 32 -Studio N/A -N/A $7,800 -$11,800
16258 Kenyon Ave 12.5%
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Kingsley Shores 2013 32 2 32 -Studio 398 -482 $2,374 -$2,655
16880 Klamath Trl 6.3%
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Fountains at Hosanna 2012 24 0 20 -Studio 310 -457 $2,185 -$2,600
9850 163rd St W 0.0%4 -1BR 526 -526 $2,890 -$2,890
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
Highview Hills 2009 24 2 24 -Studio 512 -560 $6,640 -$6,640
20150 Highview Ave 8.3%
Lakeville, MN
Amenities / Notes:
132 8
6.1%
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Memory Care Subtotal:
Monthly Rent /
Entry Fee / Sales Unit Mix Size (Sq. Ft.)
Fitness center, community patio/terrace, garden boxes, community room, library,
and community kitchen.
MEMORY CARE
One-time community fee: $1,500. Five care packages ranging from $3,300 to
$6,330/month. Meal plan $400/month. Additional services available a la carte.
Community room with fireplace, dinning room, and on-site spa/hair salon.
One-time community fee: $3,500. Four care packages (ranges shown). Custom care
packages available. Music and crafts room, gym, movie theater, salon, spa, and
dining room.
One-time community fee: $2,000. Second person fee: $150. Care packages ranging
from $4,075 to $9,325/month. Additional services available a la carte.
TABLE S-1
SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Unit Description
One-time community fee: $2,000. Care packages ranging from $3,379 to
$6,763/month. Additional services available a la carte.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 86
Age Qualil.Utilities Transportation Activities Meal Program Hskpg. / Laundry Health/Misc.
Fairfield Terrace 62+Heat included in rent None None None Common area laundry None
facilities
Argonne Hills 62+Heat, water, sewer None None None Common area laundry None
and trash included facilities
Crossroad Commons 62+Heat, water, sewer None None None Common area laundry None
and trash included facilities
Main Street Manor 62+Heat, water, sewer None None None Common area laundry None
and trash included facilities
Windsor Plaza 62+Heat, water, sewer None None None Common area laundry None
and trash included facilities
Spero Senior Living 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities None In-unit washer None
and dryer
Kingsley Place 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Additional cost Additional cost 24-hour staff, additional
services a la carte
Kingsley Shores 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Additional cost Additional cost 24-hour staff, additional
services a la carte
Fountains at Hosanna 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Additional cost Additional cost 24-hour staff, holistic wellness and
except telephone fitness programs available
Highview Hills 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Additional cost Additional cost 24-hour emergeny call system,
additional services a la carte
The Moments 62+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, custom care
packages available
Kingsley Shores 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, additional
services a la carte
Fountains at Hosanna 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities 1 Meal included Included 24-hour staff, holistic wellness and
except telephone fitness programs available
Highview Hills 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Additional cost Additional cost 24-hour emergeny call system,
additional services a la carte
BeeHive Homes of Lakeville 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, additional home health
and hospice services available
The Moments 62+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, custom care
packages available
Kingsley Shores 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, additional
services a la carte
Fountains at Hosanna 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour staff, holistic wellness and
except telephone fitness programs available
Highview Hills 55+All utilities included Scheduled transportation Planned activities Included Included 24-hour emergeny call system,
additional services a la carte
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
MEMORY CARE
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT
AFFORDABLE ACTIVE ADULT
INDEPENDENT LIVING
ASSISTED LIVING
SUBSIDIZED ACTIVE ADULT
TABLE S-2
SERVICES COMPARISON
SENIOR HOUSING PROPERTIES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 87
The following are key points from our survey of the senior housing supply.
Subsidized Active Adult
• Subsidized senior housing offers affordable rents to qualified lower income seniors and
handicapped/disabled persons. Typically, rents are tied to residents’ incomes and based on
30% of adjusted gross income (AGI), or a rent that is below the fair market rent. For those
households meeting the age and income qualifications, subsidized senior housing is usually
the most affordable rental option available.
• There is one subsidized active adult property in Lakeville. As of December 2022, there were
no vacancies in senior subsidized projects, which indicate pent -up demand for subsidized
senior rental units. Equilibrium for senior subsidized housing projects is usually around 3%,
allowing for optimal subsidized housing availability for potential residents. Typically units
sizes at subsidize senior projects are smaller than many of the market rate senior rental pro-
jects.
Affordable Active Adult
• There are four affordable active adult senior housing properties in Lakeville and all are Da-
kota County CDA owned properties. These properties include a total of 264 units and at the
time of survey, six units were vacant, resulting in a vacancy rate of 2.3%.
• Rents at Main Street Manor and Windsor Plaza are based on income and range from a mini-
mum of $482 to a maximum of $864 for a one-bedroom unit and $714 to $1,094 for two-
bedroom units. Argonne Hills and Crossroad Commons have a flat rent that ranges from
$732 for a one-bedroom to $897 for a two-bedroom.
Market Rate Active Adult
• Spero Senior Living is the only market rate active adult property in Lakeville. As of Decem-
ber 2022, there were no vacancies.
• Rents range from a low of $1,750 for a one-bedroom unit to a high of $2,800 for a two-bed-
room unit.
• Spero Senior Living includes: a community room, surface and underground parking
($65/month), walk-in showers, walk-in closets, in-unit washer and dryer, fitness center, li-
brary, game room, and chapel.
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 88
Independent Living
• There are four facilities in the City of Lakeville offering market rate independent living sup-
port services. As of December 2022, there was four vacancies in independent living facili-
ties across 188 units for an overall vacancy of 2.1%.
• Rents range for basic services from $1,334 for a one-bedroom at Kingsley Shores to $4,185
for a two-bedroom at Fountains at Hosanna. Rents increase dependent upon additional
services needed by tenants. Typical features include an emergency call system, laundry fa-
cility, cable TV, and utilities.
Assisted Living
• There are four facilities in the City of Lakeville offering market rate assisted living services.
As of December 2022, there was 10 assisted living vacancies, resulting in an overall vacancy
rate of 5.5%.
• Market rate rents range from $2,115 (before services) at Fountains at Hosanna to $11,500
at The Moments. Rents increase dependent upon additional services needed by tenants.
Typical features include an emergency call system, laundry facility, cable TV, and utilities.
Memory Care
• There are five facilities in Lakeville offering memory care support services. BeeHive Homes is
the only stand-alone memory care facility in Lakeville, the remaining memory care units are
located within separate wings at larger senior housing campuses. As of December 2022,
there was eight memory care vacancies, resulting in a 6.1% vacancy rate. This vacancy rate
is lower than market equilibrium of 7% and indicates a pent-up demand for memory care
rental units.
24
264
70
188 183
132
0.0%
2.3%
0.0%
2.1%
5.5%
6.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sub. AA Aff. AA MR AA IL AL MC Vacancy RateUnitsService Level
Lakeville Senior Housing Summary
Units Vacancy Rate
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 89
Select Senior Housing Properties
Argonne Hills Spero Senior Living
Kingsley Shores Kingsley Place
Fairfield Terrace Windsor Plaza
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 90
Select Senior Housing Properties - Continued
Main Street Manor Crossroad Commons
SENIOR HOUSING ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 91
Lakeville Senior Housing Properties
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 92
Introduction
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC analyzed the for-sale housing market in Lakeville by ana-
lyzing data on single-family and multifamily home sales, active listings, lot supply, and the ac-
tively marketing subdivisions in Lakeville.
Overview of For-Sale Housing Market Conditions
Table FS-1 presents home resale data on single-family and multifamily housing in Lakeville from
2005 through 2022. The data was obtained from the Regional Multiple Listing Services of Min-
nesota (RMLS) and shows annual number of sales, median and average pricing, and sales distri-
bution by single-family and multifamily housing.
• Like across the Twin Cities Metro Area and the nation, pricing in Lakeville reached a high
point between 2005 and 2007 at the height of the real estate boom. The median sales price
reached a high of $282,250 in 2005 before significantly falling to $205,000 in 2011. Since
2011, pricing has been steadily recovering and the median sales price in Lakeville reached a
new peak of $485,000 in 2022.
• Over the past 18 years, Lakeville has averaged about 1,094 resales annually. However, sin-
gle family housing units dominate and average over 837 homes annually compared to about
257 multifamily homes. Resales peaked in 2021, as 1,642 homes sold, including 1,283 sin-
gle-family homes and 359 multifamily homes.
• Since the pandemic in 2020, home prices in Lakeville are up 22% between 2000 and 2022.
Additionally, median prices appreciated nearly 11% between 2020 and 2021.
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Medina PriceResalesLakeville Resales: 2005 to 2022
Resales Median
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 93
Year SF MF TOTAL Avg.Median Avg.Median Avg.Median
2005 813 304 1,117 $357,432 $318,000 $224,153 $196,420 $321,530 $282,250
2006 661 271 932 $362,372 $324,900 $223,312 $201,388 $320,604 $281,757
2007 564 259 823 $350,497 $312,000 $219,171 $201,500 $306,735 $263,500
2008 571 149 720 $309,286 $285,000 $207,505 $179,000 $285,377 $255,000
2009 537 181 718 $271,267 $247,250 $172,265 $155,000 $243,821 $224,900
2010 533 183 716 $289,063 $269,560 $162,264 $146,000 $255,904 $225,250
2011 574 174 748 $256,885 $232,225 $145,017 $126,925 $228,350 $205,000
2012 707 201 908 $274,409 $254,843 $159,871 $136,150 $246,242 $226,000
2013 872 223 1,095 $303,601 $284,000 $197,071 $161,500 $280,154 $258,000
2014 769 220 989 $336,620 $312,250 $199,310 $173,500 $303,696 $272,000
2015 913 226 1,139 $340,253 $330,000 $207,978 $179,000 $314,371 $299,450
2016 1,004 315 1,319 $356,050 $333,000 $217,068 $179,900 $322,690 $307,000
2017 967 312 1,279 $374,386 $360,420 $249,216 $218,500 $342,641 $325,000
2018 1,007 296 1,303 $407,110 $388,455 $260,323 $224,000 $372,398 $356,500
2019 1,019 322 1,341 $415,646 $404,797 $271,979 $240,000 $380,049 $370,999
2020 1,274 314 1,588 $444,063 $419,005 $307,798 $277,200 $416,726 $397,095
2021 1,283 359 1,642 $499,563 $474,498 $329,566 $290,000 $460,249 $440,000
2022 989 324 1,313 $546,740 $519,103 $383,273 $370,000 $505,185 $485,000
RESALES ALL HOMES (SF + MF)
Sources: RMLS and Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC.
TABLE FS-1
RESALE TRENDS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2005 to 2022
SINGLE FAMILY MULTIFAMILY
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
$550,000
2005 06 07 08 09 2010 11 12 13 14 2015 16 17 18 19 2020 21 22
Lakeville Median Resale Price: SF vs. MF
SF MF
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 94
Existing vs. New Construction Median Sales Price Comparison
Table FS-2 shows historical median sales pricing of existing homes versus new construction
homes from 2005 to 2022. The table compares Lakeville to Dakota County and the Twin Cities
Metro Area. The graph on the following page visually displays the sales data.
• In 2022, the price of an existing home sale topped $441,250 compared to over $547,275 for
new construction. New construction commanded a premium of about 35%, compared to
the historical average of 30%. New construction in the Twin Cities command ed a premium
of 43% in 2022.
• Compared to the Metro Area, new construction in Lakeville is about 5% less whereas exist-
ing homes are about 3% than Metro Area home prices, since 2005.
• New construction pricing in Lakeville jumped significantly between 2021 and 2022 having
increased by $68,264 or 14%.
Existing New Existing New Existing New
Year Home Const.Home Const.Home Const.
2005 $281,450 $281,331 $230,000 $257,720 $225,000 $253,350
2006 $179,900 $289,460 $229,900 $278,685 $225,000 $263,200
2007 $258,980 $307,000 $225,000 $287,125 $220,000 $265,000
2008 $244,628 $322,940 $199,900 $315,000 $187,900 $262,000
2009 $215,000 $295,000 $170,950 $285,000 $160,000 $239,000
2010 $210,000 $357,500 $170,000 $289,990 $163,900 $250,000
2011 $194,000 $337,493 $150,000 $314,372 $145,000 $280,000
2012 $212,500 $347,188 $166,400 $312,000 $160,000 $305,000
2013 $239,400 $406,526 $192,500 $366,535 $184,900 $337,418
2014 $247,500 $434,990 $208,000 $402,754 $196,158 $370,776
2015 $269,950 $422,535 $220,000 $415,500 $212,400 $388,646
2016 $279,900 $418,327 $230,000 $399,000 $225,000 $387,036
2017 $291,450 $437,774 $242,000 $408,000 $239,900 $394,995
2018 $315,000 $445,075 $260,000 $435,500 $255,000 $399,500
2019 $325,000 $450,000 $279,900 $435,953 $271,500 $407,787
2020 $365,000 $450,625 $300,000 $437,580 $295,000 $413,000
2021 $418,000 $479,011 $335,000 $468,303 $330,000 $447,635
2022 $441,250 $547,275 $360,000 $521,664 $350,000 $500,363
Note: Twin Cities Metro Area = Twin Cities MSA
Source: 10K Research & Marketing, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS-2
MEDIAN SALES PRICE COMPARISON
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Lakeville Twin Cities Metro Area
2005 to 2022
Dakota County
EXISTING HOME VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 95
Home Resales by Price Point
Table FS-3 shows the distribution of sales within 12 price ranges from resales in 2022. The data
was obtained from the Regional Multiple Listing Services of Minnesota (RMLS).
• About 9% of sales in Lakeville sold in 2022 were priced under $300,000. Additionally,
nearly 45% of homes were sold between $300,000 and $499,999. Combined, about 54%
of all sales were priced under $500,000.
• About 31% of multifamily housing units sold in 2022 were priced under $300,000, and
another 16% were priced at $500,000 or higher. The median multifamily sale price in
Lakeville in 2022 was $345,000, which was 30% higher than the median multifamily
price in Dakota County ($255,000).
• The largest proportion of single-family homes (46%) were sold in the $500,000 to
$749,000 price range, while most multifamily homes (27%) were sold in the $250,000 to
$299,999 price range.
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
Year
Existing vs. New Construction Median Sales Price: Lakeville
Existing Home New Construction
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 96
0 1 1 3 8
46
106 124
147
458
68
26
0 1 1 12
86
47 46 44 34 46
6 0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Lakeville Resales by Price Point (2022)
SF MF
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 97
Price Range No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
< $99,999 0 0.0%0 0.0%0 0.0%1 0.0%32 1.4%33 0.5%46 1.1%176 7.8%222 3.4%
$100,000 to $149,999 1 0.1%1 0.3%2 0.2%8 0.2%108 4.8%116 1.8%224 5.4%785 34.6%1,009 15.7%
$150,000 to $199,999 1 0.1%1 0.3%2 0.2%32 0.8%169 7.5%201 3.1%742 17.8%1,295 57.1%2,037 31.6%
$200,000 to $249,999 3 0.3%12 3.7%15 1.1%105 2.5%557 24.6%662 10.3%1,782 42.7%2,317 102.3%4,099 63.6%
$250,000 to $299,999 8 0.8%86 26.6%94 7.2%311 7.4%603 26.6%914 14.2%3,506 84.0%2,737 120.8%6,243 96.9%
$300,000 to $349,999 46 4.7%47 14.6%93 7.1%485 11.6%271 12.0%756 11.7%4,826 115.6%1,523 67.2%6,349 98.6%
$350,000 to $399,999 106 10.7%46 14.2%152 11.6%731 17.5%216 9.5%947 14.7%4,820 115.4%1,149 50.7%5,969 92.7%
$400,000 to $449,999 124 12.6%44 13.6%168 12.8%650 15.6%145 6.4%795 12.3%3,673 88.0%755 33.3%4,428 68.7%
$450,000 to $499,999 147 14.9%34 10.5%181 13.8%501 12.0%67 3.0%568 8.8%2,782 66.6%428 18.9%3,210 49.8%
$500,000 to $749,999 458 46.4%46 14.2%504 38.4%1,135 27.2%86 3.8%1,221 19.0%7,130 170.7%624 27.5%7,754 120.4%
$750,000 to $999,999 68 6.9%6 1.9%74 5.6%164 3.9%10 0.4%174 2.7%1,876 44.9%166 7.3%2,042 31.7%
$1,000,000 and Over 26 2.6%0 0.0%26 2.0%53 1.3%2 0.6%55 0.9%1,362 32.6%134 41.5%1,496 23.2%
988 100%323 100%1,311 100%4,176 100%2,266 101%6,442 100%32,769 785%12,089 569%44,858 696%
Median
Average
1 Includes townhomes, detached townhomes, twinhomes, condominiums, and cooperatives
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of Minnesota (RMLS); Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Total
TABLE FS-3
RESALES BY PRICE POINT
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2022
Lakeville Dakota County 7-County Metro
Single-Family Multifamily1 TotalSingle-Family Multifamily1 Total Single-Family Multifamily1
$387,461
$538,045 $345,000 $490,483 $414,950 $255,000 $358,687
$546,064 $363,455 $501,073 $449,441 $273,238 $439,150 $293,268 $399,418
$375,000 $260,000 $345,000
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 98
Home Resales per Square Foot (“PSF”)
Table FS-4 shows the distribution of sales by sales price per square foot (“PSF”) from 2005 to
2022. The sales per square foot metric is simply the sales price of the home divided by the fin-
ished square footage. Table FS-5 illustrates PSF pricing between existing homes and new con-
struction in Lakeville, Dakota County, and the Twin Cities Metro Area. The graph on the follow-
ing page visually displays the sales data.
• The median and average price per square foot declined significantly between 2005 and
2012. Lakeville’s median price per square foot was $130 in 2005 before declining to its low-
est point in 2011 at $92 per square foot (-30%). Since 2011 the price per square foot has
steadily increase to $191 per square foot (+108%) as of 2022.
• Lakeville housings costs on a median PSF basis are about 1% lower than the Twin Cities
Metro Area average. However, Lakeville is priced about 3% higher than Dakota County.
• On average, the price of an existing home in Lakeville is about 20% less than the cost of new
construction. The gap between existing housing and new construction continues to grow .
In 2022, there is a 16% premium for new construction in Lakeville.
• New construction in Lakeville has on average been 6% lower historically, when compared to
the Metro Area. However, in 2022, new construction in Lakeville ($216) is priced only 1%
lower when compared to the Metro Area ($218).
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 99
Year Avg.Median Avg.Median Avg.Median
2005 $137 $130 $135 $131 $150 $138
2006 $136 $130 $134 $129 $150 $138
2007 $130 $125 $128 $124 $143 $132
2008 $118 $115 $112 $111 $120 $113
2009 $105 $103 $99 $98 $104 $98
2010 $103 $99 $96 $95 $104 $97
2011 $93 $92 $84 $84 $93 $86
2012 $98 $95 $91 $89 $101 $93
2013 $110 $106 $103 $101 $113 $106
2014 $117 $113 $110 $108 $122 $112
2015 $121 $117 $115 $113 $127 $117
2016 $126 $122 $122 $119 $134 $124
2017 $135 $130 $130 $126 $143 $132
2018 $144 $138 $139 $135 $154 $142
2019 $149 $145 $146 $142 $161 $149
2020 $159 $156 $155 $151 $170 $159
2021 $178 $173 $174 $170 $190 $178
2022 $197 $191 $188 $184 $204 $192
Source: 10K Research & Marketing, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS-4
AVERAGE & MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT (PSF)
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2005 to 2022
Twin Cities Metro AreaDakota CountyLakeville
$130
$92
$191
$138
$86
$192
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Median PSFYear
Median Sales Price per Square Foot
Lakeville Twin Cities Metro Area
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 100
Existing New Existing New Existing New
Year Home Const.Home Const.Home Const.
2005 $129 $142 $130 $144 $135 $168
2006 $128 $140 $128 $146 $135 $169
2007 $123 $139 $123 $141 $130 $161
2008 $111 $137 $109 $137 $111 $146
2009 $100 $133 $97 $127 $96 $128
2010 $97 $128 $93 $126 $95 $129
2011 $89 $120 $82 $122 $84 $125
2012 $92 $126 $88 $122 $91 $131
2013 $103 $138 $99 $135 $103 $140
2014 $109 $141 $106 $142 $110 $151
2015 $114 $139 $111 $140 $115 $154
2016 $119 $143 $117 $147 $122 $157
2017 $126 $152 $125 $154 $130 $163
2018 $133 $164 $133 $164 $139 $172
2019 $140 $168 $140 $167 $146 $176
2020 $149 $171 $149 $173 $156 $180
2021 $168 $187 $168 $189 $176 $197
2022 $184 $216 $181 $218 $188 $218
Source: 10K Research & Marketing, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS-5
MEDIAN SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT (PSF) COMPARISON
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
Lakeville Twin Cities Metro Area
2005 to 2022
Dakota County
EXISTING HOME VS. NEW CONSTRUCTION
$129
$89
$184$142
$120
$216
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
PSFYear
Existing vs. New Construction PSF Costs: Lakeville
Existing Home New Construction
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 101
Current Supply of Homes on the Market
To more closely examine the current market for available owner -occupied housing in Lakeville,
we reviewed the current supply of homes on the market (listed for sale). The data in Table FS-6
was provided by the Regional Multiple Listing Services of Minnesota and is based on active list-
ings in March 2023. MLS listings generally account for the vast majority of all residential sale
listings in a given area.
• About 231 homes were listed for sale in Lakeville as of March 2023. Single-family homes ac-
counted for 75% of all active listings. Multifamily units mainly consisted of townhomes.
• The median list price skewed higher for single-family homes due to the number of new con-
struction listings marketing. The median list price in Lakeville was $599,900 for single-family
homes and $439,900 for multifamily homes; combined the median sales price across all
housing types is about $560,000. The median sale price is generally a more accurate indica-
tor of housing values in a community than the average sale price. Average sale prices can be
easily skewed by a few very high-priced or low-priced home sales in any given year, whereas
the median sale price better represents the pricing of a majority of homes in a given mar-
ket.
• Based on a median list price of $560,000 for both single-family and multifamily listings, a
household would need an income of about $166,833 in order to afford to make monthly
housing payments of about $3,292 (assuming a 10% down payment, 6.50% 30-year fixed
mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and PMI). A household with significantly more equity
(in an existing home and/or savings) could put more than 10% down and afford a higher
priced home.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Lakeville Active Listings (March 2023)
SF MF
FOR SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 102
Price Range No.Pct.No.Pct.
< $99,999 0 0.0%0 0.0%
$100,000 to $149,999 0 0.0%0 0.0%
$150,000 to $199,999 0 0.0%0 0.0%
$200,000 to $249,999 0 0.0%0 0.0%
$250,000 to $299,999 0 0.0%6 10.5%
$300,000 to $349,999 1 0.6%3 5.3%
$350,000 to $399,999 6 3.4%10 17.5%
$400,000 to $449,999 7 4.0%13 22.8%
$450,000 to $499,999 14 8.0%8 14.0%
$500,000 to $749,999 121 69.5%17 29.8%
$750,000 to $999,999 15 8.6%0 0.0%
$1,000,000 and Over 10 5.7%0 0.0%
174 100%57 100%
Minimum
Maximum
Median
Average
1 Includes townhomes, twinhomes, and condominiums
Sources: Regional Multiple Listing Service of MN
Maxfield Research & Consulting
$439,900$599,900
$719,503$1,974,999
$259,900$319,900
$640,622 $456,228
Single-Family Multifamily1
TABLE FS-6
HOMES CURRENTLY LISTED FOR-SALE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
MARCH 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 103
Months of Active Supply
Table FS-7 illustrates the historic supply of actively marketing properties in the City of Lakeville
and Dakota County from 2005 to 2022. The table depicts the number of homes for sale over
the course of the year and the months of supply. The months of supply metric calculates the
number of months it would take for all the current homes for sale to sell given the monthly
sales absorption. Generally, a balanced supply is considered four to six months. The higher the
months of supply indicates there are more sellers than buyers; and the lower the months of
supply indicates there are more buyers than sellers.
• Overall, since the last recession, supply trends and the number of homes for sale have de-
creased significantly. The number of homes for-sale in Lakeville peaked in 2006 at around
528 homes. The month’s supply dropped from a high of 8.2 in 2008 to 1.1 in 2021.
• Like most communities across the State of Minnesota; supply is at or less than two months
in both Lakeville and Dakota County. As such, home buyers have few options for purchasing
a home in the Lakeville area.
• Since 2005, Lakeville has accounted for about 20% of all homes for sale in Dakota County.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Year Homes for SaleMonths SupplyActive Supply of Homes for Sale: Lakeville
Months Supply Homes for Sale
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 104
Dakota Twin Cities Dakota Twin Cities
Year Lakeville County Region Lakeville County Region
2005 3.4 3.5 4.2 357 2,458 22,706
2006 6.4 6.0 6.6 528 3,339 29,366
2007 6.8 7.4 8.8 527 3,527 32,373
2008 8.2 8.6 9.7 514 3,468 31,557
2009 7.3 7.1 7.3 443 2,905 26,156
2010 7.2 7.3 7.4 455 3,006 26,498
2011 6.1 6.5 7.1 372 2,544 22,712
2012 4.3 3.7 4.5 307 1,811 17,217
2013 3.5 3.1 3.5 303 1,583 15,029
2014 4.0 3.4 3.9 345 1,693 16,178
2015 3.7 3.1 3.4 339 1,717 15,037
2016 3.2 2.4 2.7 342 1,463 13,105
2017 2.9 2.0 2.3 319 1,242 11,272
2018 2.7 1.8 2.2 300 1,100 10,627
2019 2.5 1.8 2.2 285 1,078 10,850
2020 2.0 1.4 1.8 246 879 9,032
2021 1.1 1.0 1.2 162 670 6,803
2022 2.0 1.4 1.5 232 832 7,277
Note: Homes for sale based on rolling 12-month data at end of year
Source: 10K Research & Marketing, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Months Supply Homes for Sale
TABLE FS-7
ACTIVE SUPPLY OF HOMES FOR SALE
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2005 to 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 105
New Construction Housing Activity
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC obtained lot inventory and subdivision data from Metro
Study, a homebuilding consulting company that maintains a database of all subdivision activity
in the Greater Twin Cities Metro Area. Tables FS-8 to FS-12 provide a variety of information on
the new construction market in Lakeville.
The following terms are used in the lot inventory tables:
o Annual Starts and Closings: The sum of activity for the most recent four quarters.
o Closing: Defined as when a “move in” has occurred and the home is occupied.
o Future Lots Inventory: Future lots are recorded after a preliminary plat or site plan has
been submitted for consideration by the city.
o Lot Front: Range of all lot sizes within the subdivision; based on the lot front foot width
o Occupied: A buyer has taken possession of the home that was previously under con-
struction or a model home.
o Price: Range of all base home price offered within the subdivision
o Starts: The housing slab or foundation has been poured.
o Total Lots: A summation of all lots platted in a subdivision, including those closed, un-
der construction, and vacant.
o Vacant Developed Lot (VDL): The subdivision is considered developed after subdivision
streets are paved and vehicles can physically drive in front of the lot.
Lot Supply by Lot Size
FS-8 depicts trends in new single-family home construction based on lot size (i.e. front footage).
The data is current as of fourth quarter 2022 for Lakeville, Dakota County, and the Twin Cities
Metro Area and is broken down by eight different lot size categories.
• Within Lakeville, the vast majority of lot closings have been with lots sizes between 70 and
79 feet. Approximately 40% of all lot closings over the past year have fallen into this cate-
gory that is generally considered a standard lot size today. However, compared to the
Metro Area lot sizes are larger in Lakeville as about 25% of lots in the 7-County were be-
tween 70 and 79 feet and another one-third were between 60 and 69 feet.
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 106
• There are very few larger lot sales in Lakeville, only 5% of lot sales were above 90 feet
widths.
• Lot sizes have decreased since the Great Recession as developers have sought to maximize
density to keep housing more affordable. About one-third of lot closings in the 7-County
Metro Area in the past year have been on lots between 60 feet and 69 feet.
17
89
68
195
100
26
0
0
0 50 100 150 200 250
0 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70 - 79
80 - 89
90 - 99
100 - 109
110+
Closings
City of Lakeville Annual Closings by Lot Size: 4thQ 2022
58
142
293
260
102
31
2
10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70 - 79
80 - 89
90 - 99
100 - 109
110+
Closings
Dakota County Annual Closings by Lot Size: 4thQ 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 107
Lot Size Fn. Vac.Under Hsg.Vac. Dev.Future
(Width)Starts Closings Starts Closings (FV)Const. (UC)Invent.Lots (VDL)Lots (Fut)
Lakeville
0 - 49 8 4 25 17 8 9 20 13 0
50 - 59 16 30 88 89 4 39 50 87 610
60 - 69 14 24 72 68 0 44 45 36 221
70 - 79 34 82 187 195 15 66 95 259 515
80 - 89 4 22 64 100 0 21 28 119 1,123
90 - 99 0 10 22 26 0 9 10 17 0
100 - 109 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
110 And Over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Summary 76 172 458 495 27 188 248 531 2,474
Dakota County
0 - 49 20 14 84 58 8 31 46 81 615
50 - 59 24 43 171 142 7 83 100 307 1,503
60 - 69 45 78 282 293 2 140 157 368 1,117
70 - 79 38 87 212 260 15 83 115 331 725
80 - 89 5 22 72 102 0 29 36 137 1,123
90 - 99 3 13 31 31 0 15 17 51 0
100 - 109 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 5 45
110 And Over 0 1 10 10 0 3 3 18 27
Summary 136 258 864 898 32 386 476 1,298 5,155
7-County Metro Total
0 - 49 68 99 306 325 59 130 201 488 1,154
50 - 59 154 243 884 721 101 378 523 1,370 3,835
60 - 69 307 435 1,405 1,478 117 659 854 2,282 5,854
70 - 79 140 308 923 1,120 98 325 466 1,397 3,107
80 - 89 85 118 432 398 53 178 255 784 3,195
90 - 99 10 52 123 173 10 46 61 143 254
100 - 109 4 10 49 53 8 20 29 124 436
110 And Over 56 76 316 312 25 142 172 753 1,132
Summary 824 1,341 4,438 4,580 471 1,878 2,561 7,341 18,967
Greater Metro Area Total
0 - 49 74 115 350 365 64 151 230 600 1,432
50 - 59 179 288 1,065 887 121 464 638 1,707 4,864
60 - 69 367 532 1,831 1,862 222 833 1,160 3,173 8,547
70 - 79 165 361 1,133 1,404 138 390 576 1,807 4,099
80 - 89 107 175 635 639 84 250 363 1,194 4,638
90 - 99 22 74 209 305 17 73 96 447 893
100 - 109 16 33 157 186 34 54 90 337 1,015
110 And Over 122 158 658 642 45 242 296 2,037 2,107
Summary 1,052 1,736 6,038 6,290 725 2,457 3,449 11,302 27,595
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS-8
LOT SIZE ANALYSIS - DETACHED
LAKEVILLE & TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
4th QUARTER 2022
Quarterly Annual
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 108
New Construction Pricing (Detached Housing Units)
Table FS-9 depicts new construction inventory for detached housing units in Lakeville compared
to Dakota County and the Metro Area. The table depicts quarterly and annual starts, finished
vacant lots, number of homes under construction and homes previously built, a nd the number
of vacant lots. All of these attributes are provided based on the estimated sales price of the
home. Key findings follow.
• One-half of new construction closings in Lakeville have been priced between $400,000 and
$500,000. This compares to 33% in the 7-County Metro Area and 43% in Dakota County.
• About one-third of new construction in Lakeville sold between $500,000 and $600,000. This
is on-par with Dakota County while the Metro Area accounted for 27% of sales in this price
range.
• There are few detached new construction homes in Lakeville, Dakota County, or the 7 -
County Metro Area. Due to a multitude of factors, affordable new construction has been
non-existent for several years in the Metro Area.
• About 10% of new construction detached homes in Lakeville are priced from $600,000 to
$750,000. About 30% of homes in the Metro Area are priced above $600,000.
325
721
1,478
1,120
398
173
53
312
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
0 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70 - 79
80 - 89
90 - 99
100 - 109
110+
Closings
7-County Metro Areal Annual Closings by Lot Size: 4thQ 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 109
Price Point Fn. Vac.Under Hsg.Vac. Dev.
(Base Pricing)Starts Closings Starts Closings (FV)Const. (UC)Invent.Lots (VDL)
Lakeville
$0 - $199,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$200,000 - $299,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$300,000 - $399,000 1 1 5 9 0 1 1 3
$400,000 - $499,000 46 87 247 249 24 116 155 271
$500,000 - $599,000 22 62 146 166 2 50 62 126
$600,000 - $749,000 6 16 43 50 1 16 22 107
$750,000 - $999,000 1 7 17 20 0 6 8 23
$1,000,000 & Over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Summary 76 173 458 494 27 189 248 530
Dakota County
$0 - $199,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$200,000 - $299,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
$300,000 - $399,000 8 10 48 38 1 22 25 175
$400,000 - $499,000 67 116 408 388 25 183 233 566
$500,000 - $599,000 40 87 265 304 2 109 131 330
$600,000 - $749,000 12 34 96 125 2 45 55 175
$750,000 - $999,000 8 9 35 29 1 21 26 45
$1,000,000 & Over 1 2 12 13 1 6 7 5
Summary 136 258 864 897 32 386 477 1,299
7-County Metro Total
$0 - $199,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
$200,000 - $299,000 0 0 9 12 0 0 0 4
$300,000 - $399,000 38 82 272 346 55 107 170 551
$400,000 - $499,000 249 474 1,499 1,533 164 615 846 2,395
$500,000 - $599,000 244 378 1,265 1,254 117 510 684 1,772
$600,000 - $749,000 149 236 771 844 75 325 442 1,292
$750,000 - $999,000 99 89 405 327 40 204 271 920
$1,000,000 & Over 42 82 216 261 20 121 146 408
Summary 821 1,341 4,437 4,577 471 1,882 2,559 7,342
Greater Metro Area Total
$0 - $199,000 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
$200,000 - $299,000 1 2 42 63 0 1 3 38
$300,000 - $399,000 108 199 800 890 150 272 443 1,927
$400,000 - $499,000 334 637 2,095 2,223 274 875 1,243 3,938
$500,000 - $599,000 284 445 1,527 1,519 150 599 816 2,321
$600,000 - $749,000 164 265 878 939 88 361 494 1,557
$750,000 - $999,000 111 103 472 382 42 228 301 1,092
$1,000,000 & Over 44 85 223 270 21 124 149 429
Summary 1,046 1,736 6,037 6,287 725 2,460 3,449 11,302
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE FS-9
NEW CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY BY PRICE POINT - DETACHED
LAKEVILLE AND TWIN CITIES METRO AREA
4th QUARTER 2022
Quarterly Annual
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 110
0
0
9
249
166
50
20
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
>200k
$200k - $299k
$300k - $399k
$400k - $499k
$500k - $599k
$600k - $749k
$750k - $999.9k
$1M+
ClosingsPriceLakeville Annual Closings by Price: 4thQ 2022
0
0
38
388
304
125
29
13
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
>200k
$200k - $299k
$300k - $399k
$400k - $499k
$500k - $599k
$600k - $749k
$750k - $999.9k
$1M+
ClosingsPriceDakota County Annual Closings by Price: 4thQ 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 111
Actively Marketing Subdivisions
Tables FS-10 and FS-11 show an inventory of detached and attached lots within platted subdivi-
sions in Lakeville. The tables provide information on the initial date the subdivision became ac-
tive, product type, lot sizes, typical base pricing, starts and closings, and the lot inventory.
Please note: not all of the subdivisions may be actively marketing but may simply have available
lots for future development. FS-12 shows pricing and building activity by subdivision. Key find-
ings follow.
• Table FS-10 identifies 25 single-family subdivisions with available lots in Lakeville. Based on
these subdivisions, there are about 530 vacant developed lots as of 4th quarter 2022. How-
ever, there are another 1,355 future lots in the same subdivisions.
• Most of these subdivisions were platted within the past four years. The Spirit of Brandtjen
Farms master planned community was platted in 2006 and is still working through phases.
• Over the past year the number of housing closings has surpassed housing starts. Generally,
housing starts have continued to decline to rising interest rates and continued rate hikes by
the Federal Reserve.
• The median price of new construction detached single-family housing has been about
$563,000 ($230 PSF) in Lakeville over the past year with an average square footage of ap-
proximately 3,100 finished square feet. This compares to a median price of $396,500 for
townhome units, or about $205 PSF. Unit sizes are generally smaller compared to detached
structures averaging about 1,900 finished square feet.
0
12
346
1,533
1,254
844
327
261
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
>200k
$200k - $299k
$300k - $399k
$400k - $499k
$500k - $599k
$600k - $749k
$750k - $999.9k
$1M+
ClosingsPrice7-County Metro Area Annual Closings by Price: 4thQ 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 112
Lot Range Annual Annual Currently Vacant Developed Future Total
(Ft.)Min Max Starts Closings Occupied Lot Inventory (VDL)Units (Fut)Units (Tot)
Active Lots
Spirit of Brandtjen Farm/SF 1Q06 Active 1Q06 Single Family 80'$750 $890 9 13 579 0 1,082 1,664
Berres Ridge 1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 80'$400 $630 28 34 251 53 41 361
Kenwood Hills (DTH)1Q16 Active 1Q16 Single Family 40'$460 $569 7 3 55 0 0 60
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/DR Horton 1Q20 Active 1Q20 Single Family 70'$469 $556 1 16 72 0 0 75
Knob Hill of Lakeville/North (DTH)1Q21 Active 1Q21 Single Family 40'$410 $800 18 14 14 13 0 42
Aspen Grove 2Q19 Active 2Q19 Single Family 80'$450 $750 1 5 55 0 0 56
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/Express Premier 2Q20 Active 2Q20 Single Family 65'$424 $480 31 23 66 16 0 109
Feldman Heights 3Q15 Active 3Q15 Single Family 70'$400 $500 0 1 24 1 0 25
Pheasant Run of Lakeville/3Q16 Active 3Q16 Single Family 85'$330 $500 14 24 173 9 0 187
Knob Hill of Lakeville/3Q19 Active 3Q19 Single Family 90'$350 $550 22 26 86 17 0 113
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/Freedom 3Q20 Active 3Q20 Single Family 55'$399 $452 34 30 54 14 0 84
Bennett Bluffs 3Q20 Active 3Q20 Single Family 70'$430 $530 2 5 22 1 0 24
Summers Creek/Villa 3Q20 Active 3Q20 Single Family 50'-59'$430 $700 32 37 49 52 0 123
Glacier Creek/SF 3Q21 Active 3Q21 Single Family 70'$400 $600 42 36 36 49 0 99
Knob Hill of Lakeville/North 3Q21 Active 3Q21 Single Family 70'$400 $550 7 18 18 10 0 36
Pheasant Run of Lakeville/North 3Q21 Active 3Q21 Single Family 70'$400 $800 10 3 3 107 0 117
Preserve in Lakeville, The 3Q21 Active 3Q21 Single Family 85'$661 $775 12 24 38 48 0 89
Enclave of Lakeville, The 3Q22 Active 3Q22 Single Family 85'$400 $900 0 0 0 9 0 9
Avonlea/Grove 4Q17 Active 4Q17 Single Family 65'$470 $544 41 45 165 20 0 203
Cedar Crossings Express Premier 4Q19 Active 4Q19 Single Family 70'$433 $459 22 23 107 0 0 123
Cedar Hills/Discovery 4Q20 Active 4Q20 Single Family 70'$502 $635 34 27 27 10 83 139
Cedar Hills/Lifestyle Villa 4Q20 Active 4Q20 Single Family 50'$409 $453 22 22 25 21 149 207
Summers Creek/SF 4Q20 Active 4Q20 Single Family 70'$470 $674 37 51 71 7 0 84
Redstone 4Q21 Active 4Q21 Single Family 70'$410 $900 29 13 13 16 0 47
Highview Ridge 4Q22 Active 4Q22 Single Family 70'$500 $800 3 0 0 58 0 61
Subtotal 458 493 2,003 531 1,355 4,137
$25
Future Lots
Bee Well Development 0 Future Single Family 100'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 5 5
Brookshire/Dr Horton 0 Future Single Family 0 $0 $0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brookshire/Express Premier 0 Future Single Family 70'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 385 385
Brookshire/Express Select 0 Future Single Family 55'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 170 170
Caslano/Classic 0 Future Single Family 65'$547 $650 0 0 0 0 16 16
Caslano/Landmark 0 Future Single Family 60'$551 $644 0 0 0 0 205 205
Cedar Creek Villas 0 Future Single Family 55'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 137 137
North Creek in Lakeville/SF 1Q20 Future Single Family 70'$350 $500 0 2 33 0 47 80
Pheasant Run of Lakeville/North (DTH)0 Future Single Family 0 $0 $0 0 0 0 0 33 33
Voyageur Farms 0 Future Single Family 50'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 154 154
0 2 33 0 1,152 1,185
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting
TABLE FS-10
SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY - DETACHED HOUSING UNITS
LAKEVILLE
4TH QUARTER 2022
Subdivision Name Initial
Active Qtr.Status Product Type Pricing ($1,000)
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 113
Lot Range Annual Annual Currently Vacant Developed Future Total
(Ft.)Min Max Starts Closings Occupied Lot Inventory (VDL)Units (Fut)Units (Tot)
Actively Lots
Cordelia Freedom (TH)4Q21 Active 4Q21 Townhouse 25'$370 $370 44 17 17 34 93 171
Crystal Park Express (TH)4Q21 Active 4Q21 Townhouse 25'$300 $400 30 6 6 22 0 52
Glacier Creek/TH 4Q20 Active 4Q20 Townhouse 30'$423 $445 48 54 73 16 0 114
Kenwood Place (TW)1Q17 Active 1Q17 Duplex 45'$760 $778 0 7 26 0 0 30
Spirit of Brandtjen Farm/TH 2Q20 Active 2Q20 Townhouse 27'$400 $490 25 8 8 14 0 43
Subtotal 147 92 130 86 93 410
Future
Brookshire/TH 0 Future Townhouse 25'$0 $0 0 0 0 0 181 181
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research & Consulting
TABLE FS-11
SUBDIVISION & LOT INVENTORY - ATTACHED HOUSING UNITS
LAKEVILLE
4TH QUARTER 2022
Subdivision Name Initial Active
Qtr.Status Product Type Pricing ($1,000)
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 114
• Compared to single-family, there are few new construction attached products marketing in
Lakeville. There are only five actively marketing attached subdivisions in Lakeville boasting
a total of 86 vacant developed lots. Given high inflation and rising mortgage rates, the de-
mand for townhome style units will continue to grow.
Select For-Sale Housing Properties
Kenwood Place Townhomes Linden Ridge Single-Family
Spirit of Brandtjen Single-Family The Commons at Avonlea Townhomes
The Grove at Avonlea Single-Family Kenwood Hills Villa Home
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 115
• As depicted in Table FS-12, the top performing subdivision in Lakeville was Glacier Creek; a
townhouse project (villas) by Brandl Anderson Homes. The development had approxi-
mately 50 starts and closings this past year, resulting in average sales of around four to five
homes per month. Price points were in the lower $400s which resulted in strong demand
for new construction with main-level living options. At the same time, the Glacier Creek sin-
gle-family homes had 36 closings this past year, or about three home sales per month.
• Lakeville is amongst the busiest new single-family construction market in the Twin Cities.
According to the Builders Association of the Twin Cities (“BATC”), Lakeville is the top market
this past year followed by Woodbury, Cottage Grove, Blaine, and Shakopee. At the same
time, building permit activity pulled back significantly as the year progresses as rising inter-
est rates pushed many buyers out of the market.
Min Max
Subdivision Status ProductType Price Price LotRange Active Builders Starts Closings
Glacier Creek/TH Act 4Q20 Townhouse $423 $445 30'Brandl Anderson Homes 48 54
Summers Creek/SF Act 4Q20 Single Family $470 $674 70'DR Horton Inc/Key Land Homes 37 51
Avonlea/Grove Act 4Q17 Single Family $470 $544 65'Lennar Homes 41 45
Summers Creek/Villa
Act 3Q20 Single Family $430 $700 50'-59'
Country Joe Homes/Mark Elliot
Homes/Summergate Companies 32 37
Glacier Creek/SF
Act 3Q21 Single Family $400 $600 70'
Brandl Anderson Homes/Dream Homes
Inc/OneTenTen Homes LLC 42 36
Berres Ridge
Act 1Q16 Single Family $400 $630 80'
Eternity Homes LLC/OneTenTen Homes
LLC/Pietsch Builders/Robert McNearney
Custom Homes/Sharper Homes/Stone
Cottage Construction 28 34
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/Freedom
Act 3Q20 Single Family $399 $452 55'
DR Horton - Freedom Homes
34 30
Cedar Hills/Discovery Act 4Q20 Single Family $502 $635 70'Lennar Homes 34 27
Knob Hill of Lakeville/
Act 3Q19 Single Family $350 $550 90'
Brandl Anderson Homes/Eternity Homes
LLC/Key Land Homes/Loomis
Homes/OneTenTen Homes LLC/Stone
Cottage Construction/Thorson Homes 22 26
Preserve in Lakeville, The Act 3Q21 Single Family $661 $775 85'Country Joe Homes 12 24
Pheasant Run of Lakeville/
Act 3Q16 Single Family $330 $500 85'
Eternity Homes LLC/Key Land Homes/KJ
Walk/OneTenTen Homes LLC/Pietsch
Builders/Thorson Homes 14 24
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/Express
Premier Act 2Q20 Single Family $424 $480 65'
DR Horton - Express Homes
31 23
Cedar Crossings Express Premier Act 4Q19 Single Family $433 $459 70'DR Horton - Express Homes 22 23
Cedar Hills/Lifestyle Villa Act 4Q20 Single Family $409 $453 50'Lennar Homes 22 22
Knob Hill of Lakeville/North
Act 3Q21 Single Family $400 $550 70'
Eternity Homes LLC/Key Land
Homes/OneTenTen Homes LLC 7 18
Cordelia Freedom (TH)Act 4Q21 Townhouse $370 $370 25'Pulte Homes 44 17
Avonlea/Pinnacle Reserve/DR
Horton Act 1Q20 Single Family $469 $556 70'
DR Horton Inc
1 16
Knob Hill of Lakeville/North (DTH)Act 1Q21 Single Family $410 $800 40'Eternity Homes LLC/Key Land Homes 18 14
Redstone
Act 4Q21 Single Family $410 $900 70'
Distinctive Design Build Inc/Eternity Homes
LLC/Pietsch Builders 29 13
Spirit of Brandtjen Farm/SF Act 1Q06 Single Family $750 $890 80'Robert Thomas Homes 9 13
Spirit of Brandtjen Farm/TH Act 2Q20 Townhouse $400 $490 27'RT Urban Homes 25 8
Kenwood Place (TW)Act 1Q17 Duplex $760 $778 45'Wooddale Builders 0 7
Crystal Park Express (TH)Act 4Q21 Townhouse $300 $400 25'DR Horton - Express Homes 30 6
Aspen Grove Act 2Q19 Single Family $450 $750 80'OneTenTen Homes LLC 1 5
Bennett Bluffs Act 3Q20 Single Family $430 $530 70'OneTenTen Homes LLC 2 5
Kenwood Hills (DTH)Act 1Q16 Single Family $460 $569 40'Fieldstone Family Homes 7 3
Pheasant Run of Lakeville/North
Act 3Q21 Single Family $400 $800 70'
Eternity Homes LLC/Key Land Homes/Loomis
Homes/OneTenTen Homes LLC
10 3
Feldman Heights Act 3Q15 Single Family $400 $500 70'Cedar Custom Builders & Remodlers 0 1
Enclave of Lakeville, The Act 3Q22 Single Family $400 $900 85'Superior Contracting 0 0
Highview Ridge Act 4Q22 Single Family $500 $800 70'Country Joe Homes/Key Land Homes 3 0
Source: Metrostudy, Maxfield Research and Consulting
Annual
TABLE FS-12
SALES ABSORPTIONS BY SUBDIVISION - LAKEVILLE
4Q 2021 to 4Q 2022
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 116
• Although Lakeville has numerous builders, new construction has been dominated by the
two largest builders that have accounted for nearly one-half of new construction starts in
Lakeville. Lennar and D.R. Horton combine for about 150 housing starts annually. Keyland
Homes, Brandl Anderson Homes, and One Ten Ten Homes all average about 30 homes per
year.
• Although there are few “bring your own builder” subdivisions in Lakeville; many subdivi-
sions are semi-closed subdivisions that allow the home buyer to choose from select build-
ers. These subdivisions have architectural covenants in place to ensure design consistency
throughout the neighborhood. Most nationals such as Lennar and D.R. Horton prefer to
only build within communities they also develop.
FOR-SALE MARKET ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 117
Real Estate Professionals Survey Summary
Maxfield Research and Consulting surveyed real estate professionals familiar with Lakeville’s
owner-occupied market to solicit their impressions of the for-sale housing market in the city.
Key points are summarized below.
• Overall, respondents agreed that demand for for-sale housing is high in the City of Lake-
ville due to desirable school district, amenities (parks, trails, retail, etc.), and for lifestyle
reasons. However, housing affordability was a common issue noted among responses,
and many agents attributed that to high land costs and low inventory of entry-level
housing. Additionally, agents stated that they predominately serve move-up buyers, as
the price for first-time home buyers is too high in Lakeville.
• Survey respondents stated that due to affordability challenges in the city, the product
type buyers are mainly seeking is entry-level single-family homes ($450k and under), fol-
lowed by townhome or condominium developments.
• The primary market for move-up buyers is new construction, as many buyers want to
customize their homes, while first-time home buyers prefer existing resale homes be-
cause they are more affordable. It was also noted that because of housing affordability,
resales are very competitive and turn in multiple offers.
• Surveys also noted a large number of aging demographic seeking to downsize, which has
created challenges for the lack of senior rental housing in Lakeville.
• All respondents agreed that housing in Lakeville was less affordable than surrounding
communities, however it continues to be a very desirable community for its local ameni-
ties and school district.
PLANNED AND PROPOSED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 118
Planned and Proposed Housing Developments
Maxfield Research obtained data from community staff members in Lakeville in order to iden-
tify housing developments under construction, planned, or pending. As of December 2022,
there are three pending multifamily rental developments, four pending senior housing develop-
ments, and 11 pending for-sale housing developments.
• Among the three pending multifamily rental developments is one market rate apartment
project (Livery Modern Apartments | 204 -units) that is under construction and is slated for
completion during the first quarter of 2023. Additionally, there is one approved affordable
project (Authentix Townhomes | 252 -units) and one proposed project (179th St Apts. | 243
-units).
• Currently, there are two senior projects that are under construction , The Pillars of Lakeville
and BeeHive Homes of Lakeville. Additionally, there are two proposed senior projects, Affin-
ity at Lakeville and Estoria Lakeville. In total, these four projects included 413 units across
five service levels.
• Finally, there are 11 pending for-sale housing developments in the City of Lakeville. These
projects include a total of 566 single-family homes, 198 attached townhomes, and 232 de-
tached townhomes.
PLANNED AND PROPOSED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 119
Project Name/Location Units Type Developer/Applicant Status/Notes
Livery Modern Apartments 204 Market Rate The Garrett Companies Under Construction. Q3/4 2023
16001 Eagleview Dr
Authentix Townhomes 252 Affordable Continental 564 Fund Approved
N of 210th St & W of Keokuk Ave 80% AMI
179th St Apts.243 Market Rate TE Miller Development Proposed
SE corner of 179th St & Cedar Ave
The Pillars of Lakeville 100 IL, AL, MC Oppidan Under Construction. Q2/3 2023
17701 Glacier Way IL (56), AL (30), MC (14)
BeeHive Homes of Lakeville 48 MC Chevalle Investments Under Construction. 2023
8305 210th St W
Affinity at Lakeville 174 MR AA Affinity at Lakeville, LLC Proposed
18000 Cedar Ave
Estoria Lakeville 91 Senior Co-op Ebenezer Mgmt.Proposed
165th St W & Jackdaw Path
Berres Ridge 8th Add.26 SF Berres Ridge Deve., LLC Proposed
N of 202nd St & W of Hamburg Ave
Brookshire 267 SF & Att. THs D.R. Horton Approved
S of 170th St & E of Eagleview Dr SF (196) + Att. TH (71)
Caslano 94 SF U.S. Home, LLC Approved
S of Dodd Blvd & W of Highview Ave Lennar
Cedar Creek Villas 37 Det. THs Summergate Deve.Approved
NW quad. of 202nd St & Cedar Ave
Cedar Hills 5th Add.70 SF & Det. THs Lennar Homes Proposed
E of Cedar & S of 200th St SF (36) + Det. TH (34)
Glacier Creek 5th Add.39 SF CNC Development V, LLC Approved
E of Cedar Ave & S of 179th St
Highview Ridge 61 SF Youngfield Homes, Inc.Proposed
S of Dodd Blvd & E of Highview Ave
North Creek Estates 79 SF North Creek of Proposed
W of Pilot Knob Rd & S of 170th St Lakeville, LLC Manufactured
Pheasant Run of Lakeville 8th Add.33 Det. THs KJ Walk, Inc Proposed
E of Pilot Knob Rd & N of 179th St
Ritter Meadows 258 SF, Att. & Det.N/A Proposed
N of 205th St & W of Keokuk Ave THs SF (35), Att. TH (127), Det. TH (96)
Voyageur Farms 32 Det. THs U.S. Home, LLC Approved
E of Cedar Ave & N of 185th St Lennar
MF Rental Units Total:699
Senior Units Total:413
For-Sale Units Total:996
TABLE P-1
PENDING HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
DECEMBER 2022
Source: City of Lakeville, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
General Occupancy Multifamily Rental Housing
Senior Housing
For-Sale Housing
PLANNED AND PROPOSED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 120
Select Pending Housing Properties
Livery Modern Apts. – Under Construction The Pillars of Lakeville – Under Construction
Berres Ridge Single-Family – Under Construc-
tion
Summers Creek Single-Family – Recently Com-
pleted
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 121
Introduction
Affordable housing is a term that has various definitions according to different people and is a
product of supply and demand. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Devel-
opment (HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to p ay no more than 30% of its
annual income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of their in-
come for housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have diffi-
culty affording necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care.
Generally, housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 80% of Area Me-
dian Income (AMI) is considered affordable. However, many individual properties have income
restrictions set anywhere from 30% to 80% of AMI. Rent is not based on income but instead is
a contract amount that is affordable to households within the specific income restriction seg-
ment. Moderate-income housing, often referred to as “workforce housing,” refers to both
rental and ownership housing. Hence the definition is broadly defined as housing that is in-
come-restricted to households earning between 50% and 120% AMI. Figure 1 below summa-
rizes income ranges by definition.
Naturally-Occurring Affordable Housing (i.e. Unsubsidized Affordable)
Although affordable housing is typically associated with an income-restricted property, there
are other housing units in communities that indirectly provide affordable housing. Housing
units that were not developed or designated with income guidelines (i.e. assisted) yet are more
affordable than other units in a community are considered “naturally -occurring” or “unsubsi-
dized affordable” units. This rental supply is available through the private market, versus as-
sisted housing programs through various governmental agencies. Property values on these
units are lower based on a combination of factors, such as: age of structure/housing stock, loca-
tion, condition, size, functionally obsolete, school district, etc. Because of these factors, hous-
ing costs tend to be lower.
Definition
Extremely Low Income 0%-30%
Very Low Income 31%-50%
Low Income 51%-80%
Moderate Income | Workforce Housing 80%-120%
Note: Dakota County 4-person AMI = $118,200 (2022)
AMI Range
FIGURE 1
AREA MEDIAN INCOME (AMI) DEFINITIONS
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 122
According to the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, the privately unsubsi-
dized housing stock supplies three times as many low -cost affordable units than assisted pro-
jects nationwide. Unlike assisted rental developments, most unsubsidized af fordable units are
scattered across small properties (one to four unit structures) or in older multifamily structures.
Many of these older developments are vulnerable to redevelopment due to their age, modest
rents, and deferred maintenance.
Because many of these housing units have affordable rents, project-based and private housing
markets cannot be easily separated. Some households (typically those with household incomes
of 50% to 60% AMI) income-qualify for both market rate and project-based affordable housing.
Rent and Income Limits
Table HA-1 shows the maximum allowable incomes by household size to qualify for affordable
housing and maximum gross rents that can be charged by bedroom size in Dakota County.
These incomes are published and revised annually by the Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) and also published separately by the Minnesota Housing Finance Agency
based on the date the project was placed into service. Fair market rent is the amount needed
to pay gross monthly rent at modest rental housing in a given area. This table is used as a basis
for determining the payment standard amount used to calculate the maximum monthly subsidy
for families at financially assisted housing.
Table HA-2 shows the maximum rents by household size and AMI based on income limit s illus-
trated in Table HA-1. The rents on Table HA-2 are based on HUD’s allocation that monthly rents
should not exceed 30% of income. In addition, the table reflects maximum household size
based on HUD guidelines of number of persons per unit. For each additional bedroom, the
maximum household size increases by two persons.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 123
30%40%50%60%70%80%100%120%
1 pph $24,660 $32,880 $41,100 $49,320 $57,540 $65,760 $82,200 $98,640
2 pph $28,170 $37,560 $46,950 $56,340 $65,730 $75,120 $93,900 $112,680
3 pph $31,680 $42,240 $52,800 $63,360 $73,920 $84,480 $105,600 $126,720
4 pph $35,190 $46,920 $58,650 $70,380 $82,110 $93,840 $117,300 $140,760
5 pph $38,010 $50,680 $63,350 $76,020 $88,690 $101,360 $126,700 $152,040
6 pph $40,830 $54,440 $68,050 $81,660 $95,270 $108,880 $136,100 $163,320
7 pph $43,650 $58,200 $72,750 $87,300 $101,850 $116,400 $145,500 $174,600
8 pph $46,470 $61,960 $77,450 $92,940 $108,430 $123,920 $154,900 $185,800
30%40%50%60%70%80%100%120%
EFF $616 $822 $1,027 $1,233 $1,438 $1,644 $2,055 $2,466
1BR $660 $880 $1,100 $1,320 $1,540 $1,761 $2,201 $2,641
2BR $792 $1,056 $1,320 $1,584 $1,848 $2,112 $2,640 $3,168
3BR $915 $1,220 $1,525 $1,830 $2,135 $2,440 $3,050 $3,660
4BR $1,020 $1,361 $1,701 $2,041 $2,381 $2,722 $3,402 $4,083
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
$932 $1,078 $1,329 $1,841 $2,145
Sources: MHFA, HUD, Novogradac, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Bedroom Type
/ Rent
Fair Market Rent
Area Median Income (AMI)
Maximum Gross Rent
TABLE HA-1
MHFA/HUD INCOME AND RENT LIMITS
DAKOTA COUNTY - 2022
Income Limits by Household Size
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 124
Unit Type1 Min Max Min. Max.Min. Max.Min. Max.Min. Max.Min. Max.Min. Max.
Studio 1 1 $617 -$617 $1,028 -$1,028 $1,233 -$1,233 $1,644 -$1,644 $2,055 -$2,055 $2,466 -$2,466
1BR 1 2 $617 -$704 $1,028 -$1,174 $1,233 -$1,409 $1,644 -$1,878 $2,055 -$2,348 $2,466 -$2,817
2BR 2 4 $704 -$880 $1,174 -$1,466 $1,409 -$1,760 $1,878 -$2,346 $2,348 -$2,933 $2,817 -$3,519
3BR 3 6 $792 -$1,021 $1,320 -$1,701 $1,584 -$2,042 $2,112 -$2,722 $2,640 -$3,403 $3,168 -$4,083
4BR 4 8 $880 -$1,162 $1,466 -$1,936 $1,760 -$2,324 $2,346 -$3,098 $2,933 -$3,873 $3,519 -$4,645
Sources: HUD, MHFA, Novogradac, Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
120%
1 One-bedroom plus den and two-bedroom plus den units are classified as 1BR and 2BR units, respectively. To be classified as a bedroom, a den must have a window and
closet.
Note: Dakota County 4-person AMI = $118,200 (2022)
TABLE HA-2
MAXIMUM RENT BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SIZE AND AREA MEDIAN INCOME
DAKOTA COUNTY - 2022
Maximum Rent Based on Household Size (@30% of Income)
HHD Size 30%50%60%80%100%
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 125
Housing Cost Burden
Table HA-3 shows the number and percentage of owner and renter households in the City of
Lakeville that pay 30% or more of their gross income for housing. This information was com-
piled from the American Community Survey 2020 estimates. This information is different than
the 2000 Census which separated households that paid 35% or more in housing costs . As such,
the information presented in the tables may be overstated in terms of households that may be
“cost burdened.” The Federal standard for affordability is 30% of income for housing costs.
Without a separate break out for households that pay 35% or more, there are likely a number
of households that elect to pay slightly more than 30% of their gross income to select the hous-
ing that they choose. Moderately cost-burdened is defined as households paying between 30%
and 50% of their income to housing; while severely cost-burdened is defined as households
paying more than 50% of their income for housing.
Higher-income households that are cost-burdened may have the option of moving to lower
priced housing, but lower-income households often do not. The figures focus on owner house-
holds with incomes below $50,000 and renter households with incomes below $35,000.
Key findings from Table HA-3 follow.
• About 14% of owner households and 40% of renter householders are estimated to be pay-
ing more than 30% of their income for housing costs in Lakeville. Compared to the Dakota
County and Metro Area averages, the percentage of cost burdened owner and renter
households are slightly higher in Dakota County and the Metro Area than in Lakeville.
• The number of cost burdened households in Lakeville increases proportionally based on
lower incomes. About 77% of renters with incomes below $35,000 are cost burdened and
66% of owners with incomes below $50,000 are cost burdened.
• Median contract rents in Lakeville ($1,373) and Dakota County ($973) are higher than in the
Twin Cities Metro Area ($937) and significantly higher than the median rent in the State of
Minnesota average ($816) in 2020.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 126
Community No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.No.Pct.
Owner Households
All Owner Households 19,904 122,750 825,889 1,588,611
Cost Burden 30% or greater 2,749 14.0%20,465 16.7%148,801 18.1%284,842 17.9%
Owner Households w/ incomes <$50,000 2,595 21,863 151,856 377,372
Cost Burden 30% or greater 1,575 65.7%12,525 58.8%88,394 59.7%187,517 49.7%
Renter Households
All Renter Households 2,916 40,713 374,867 619,377
Cost Burden 30% or greater 1,116 40.3%17,921 45.6%165,816 45.9%265,967 42.9%
Renter Households w/ incomes <$35,000 1,011 13,847 139,240 264,370
Cost Burden 30% or greater 695 76.7%11,359 87.5%110,848 84.9%195,122 73.8%
Note: Calculations exclude households not computed.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HA-3
HOUSING COST BURDEN
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2020
City of Lakeville Dakota County Metro Area Minnesota
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 127
Housing Costs as Percentage of Household Income
Housing costs are generally considered affordable at 30% of a households’ adjusted gross in-
come. Table HA-4 on the following page illustrates key housing metrics based on housing costs
and household incomes in the City of Lakeville. The table estimates the percentage of Lakeville
householders that can afford rental and for -sale housing based on a 30% allocation of income
to housing. Housing costs are based on averages in Lakeville.
The housing affordability calculations assume the f ollowing:
For-Sale Housing
▪ 10% down payment with good credit score
▪ Closing costs rolled into mortgage
▪ 30-year mortgage at 6.00% interest rate
▪ Private mortgage insurance (equity of less than 20%)
▪ Homeowners insurance for single-family homes and association dues for townhomes
▪ Owner household income per 2020 ACS
Rental Housing
▪ Background check on tenant to ensure credit history
▪ 30% allocation of income
▪ Renter household income per 2020 ACS
40.3%
45.6%45.9%
14.0%
16.7%18.1%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
Lakeville Dakota County Metro Area
Cost Burdened Households, 2020
All Renter HHs All Owner HHs
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 128
Because of the down payment requirement and strict underwriting criteria for a mortgage, not
all households will meet the income qualifications as outlined above.
• About 64% of Lakeville households could afford to buy an entry-level home ($350,000) in
Lakeville. Furthermore, about 62% of existing owner households could afford to purchase a
home of $350,000.
• About 45% of existing renter households can afford to rent an average one-bedroom unit in
Lakeville (approx. $1,525/month). The percentage of renter income-qualified households
decreases to roughly 29% that can afford an existing three-bedroom unit (approx.
$2,165/month). Furthermore, about 40% of renters could afford to rent a one-bedroom
apartment at $1,700 per month within a new development.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 129
For-Sale (Assumes 10% down payment and good credit)
Entry-Level Move-Up Executive Entry-Level Move-Up Executive
Price of House $350,000 $500,000 $600,000 $250,000 $350,000 $450,000
Pct. Down Payment 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%
Total Down Payment Amt.$35,000 $50,000 $60,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000
Estimated Closing Costs (rolled into mortgage)$10,500 $15,000 $18,000 $7,500 $10,500 $13,500
Cost of Loan $325,500 $465,000 $558,000 $232,500 $325,500 $418,500
Interest Rate 6.000%6.000%6.000%6.000%6.000%6.000%
Number of Pmts.360 360 360 360 360 360
Monthly Payment (P & I)-$1,952 -$2,788 -$3,345 -$1,394 -$1,952 -$2,509
(plus) Prop. Tax -$292 -$417 -$500 -$208 -$292 -$375
(plus) HO Insurance/Assoc. Fee for TH -$117 -$167 -$200 -$100 -$100 -$100
(plus) PMI/MIP (less than 20%)-$141 -$202 -$242 -$101 -$141 -$181
Subtotal monthly costs -$2,501 -$3,573 -$4,287 -$1,803 -$2,484 -$3,165
Housing Costs as % of Income 30%30%30%30%30%30%
Minimum Income Required $100,037 $142,910 $171,492 $72,122 $99,370 $126,619
Pct. of ALL Lakeville HHDS who can afford1 63.6%39.6%28.2%77.7%64.0%48.7%
No. of Lakeville HHDS who can afford1 15,596 9,704 6,918 19,047 15,681 11,943
Pct. of Lakeville owner HHDs who can afford2 62.3%38.5%27.3%76.7%62.6%47.5%
No. of Lakeville owner HHDs who can afford2 12,397 7,653 5,443 15,264 12,466 9,456
No. of Lakeville owner HHDS who cannot afford2 7,507 12,251 14,461 4,640 7,438 10,448
Rental (Market Rate)
1BR 2BR 3BR 1BR 2BR 3BR
Monthly Rent $1,525 $1,855 $2,165 $1,700 $2,100 $2,500
Annual Rent $18,300 $22,260 $25,980 $20,400 $25,200 $30,000
Housing Costs as % of Income 30%30%30%30%30%30%
Minimum Income Required $61,000 $74,200 $86,600 $68,000 $84,000 $100,000
Pct. of ALL Lakeville HHDS who can afford1 81.8%77.0%70.6%79.2%72.0%63.7%
No. of Lakeville HHDS who can afford1 20,036 18,862 17,311 19,413 17,642 15,601
Pct. of Lakeville renter HHDs who can afford2 45.0%36.3%28.7%40.4%30.3%20.5%
No. of Lakeville renter HHDs who can afford2 1,311 1,057 836 1,177 883 599
No. of Lakeville renter HHDS who cannot afford2 1,605 1,859 2,080 1,739 2,033 2,317
1 Based on 2023 household income for ALL households
2 Based on 2020 ACS household income by tenure (i.e. owner and renter incomes. Owner incomes = $119,152 vs. renter incomes = $55,772)
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
Existing Rental New Rental
TABLE HA-4
Single-Family Townhome/Twinhome/Condo
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY - BASED ON HOUSEHOLD INCOME
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 130
Industry Wages & Affordability
Table HA-5 showcase Lakeville wages by industry against the costs for affordable / market rate
rental housing and the median resale price of a home in Lakeville. All employment and wage
data is sourced to MN DEED and all housing costs are sourced to Maxfie ld Research based on
data collected in this report. Please note that the wage data and housing affordability compari-
sons is based on ONE wage earner in a household. The data does not take into account a 2nd
wage earner in the household that would boost household income. Key points follow.
• The average wage in Lakeville is approximately $1,055 weekly | $54,860 annual; result-
ing in “affordable” housing costs of about $1,372 per month based on a 30% allocation
of income to housing. Based on this income, an affordable priced home would likely
range from about $164,580 to $192,010.
• Based on the overall average rents for affordable ($1,079) and market rate ($1,713)
units in Lakeville, the only employment sectors that have wages able to afford either af-
fordable or market rate rental housing is the Construction sector and the Financial Ser-
vices sector. Based on the price of a median priced resale home ($485,000), no sector is
able to afford a home in Lakeville based off of average wages (single-wage earner), es-
pecially give the increase in mortgage rates over the past year.
• During the second quarter 2022, the average weekly wage in the City of Lakeville
($1,055) was 17% lower than the average weekly wage in Dakota County ($1,251).
• According to data from the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), 68% of married
couples in Lakeville are both in the labor force, compared to only 63% in Dakota County.
• Due to higher percentage of households with dual incomes, Lakeville owners and many
renters are relying on two incomes to meet housing costs. Therefore, the figures in Ta-
ble HA-5 would need to be adjusted for two income households.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 131
60% AMI MR
Industry Q2 2022 Pct.Q2 2022 Q2 2022
Natural Resources & Mining 35 0.2%$594 $772 $92,664 $108,108 N N
Construction 1,210 5.9%$1,717 $2,232 $267,852 $312,494 Y Y
Manufacturing 2,764 13.4%$1,256 $1,633 $195,936 $228,592 Y N
Trade, Transportation and Utilities 4,630 22.4%$946 $1,230 $147,576 $172,172 Y N
Information 259 1.3%$928 $1,206 $144,768 $168,896 Y N
Financial Services 907 4.4%$1,692 $2,200 $263,952 $307,944 Y Y
Professional and Business Services 2,342 11.3%$1,130 $1,469 $176,280 $205,660 Y N
Education and Health Services 4,412 21.3%$1,119 $1,455 $174,564 $203,658 Y N
Leisure and Hospitality 2,761 13.4%$444 $577 $69,264 $80,808 N N
Other Services 899 4.3%$826 $1,074 $128,856 $150,332 N N
Public Administration 448 2.2%$1,190 $1,547 $185,640 $216,580 Y N
Totals 20,667 $1,055 $1,372 $164,580 $192,010
*** Data based off of one wage earner ***
Overall Avg. Rent: Affordable Rent $1,079
Overall Avg. Rent: Market Rate Rent $1,713
Med. Sale Price: $485,000 for SF & MF (2022)
Note: Y = Yes, N = No
Source: MN DEED; Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
TABLE HA-5
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY BASED ON INDUSTRY WAGES
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
QUARTER 2 2022
Avg. Weekly
Wage
Max. Monthly Housing
Cost @ 30% Income Avg. Aff. Home Price Can Aff. Rental Hsg.Can Aff. Med.
Price HomeAverage Number of Employees
N
Range
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
N
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 132
Introduction
Previous sections of this study analyzed the existing housing supply and the growth and demo-
graphic characteristics of the population and household base in the City of Lakeville. This sec-
tion of the report presents our estimates of housing demand in the City of Lakeville from 2023
through 2040.
Demographic Profile and Housing Demand
The demographic profile of a community affects housing demand and the types of housing that
are needed. The housing life-cycle stages are:
1. Entry-level householders
• Often prefer to rent basic, inexpensive apartments
• Usually singles or couples in their early 20’s without children
• Will often “double-up” with roommates in apartment setting
2. First-time homebuyers and move-up renters
• Often prefer to purchase modestly priced single-family homes or rent
more upscale apartments
• Usually married or cohabiting couples, in their mid-20's or 30's, some
with children, but most are without children
3. Move-up homebuyers
• Typically prefer to purchase newer, larger, and therefore more expen-
sive single-family homes
• Typically, families with children where householders are in their late
30's to 40's
4. Empty-nesters (persons whose children have grown and left home) and
never-nesters (persons who never have children)
• Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
• Some will move to alternative lower-maintenance housing products
• Generally, couples in their 50's or 60's
5. Younger independent seniors
• Prefer owning but will consider renting their housing
• Will often move (at least part of the year) to retirement havens in the
Sunbelt and desire to reduce their responsibilities for upkeep and
maintenance
• Generally, in their late 60's or 70's
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 133
6. Older seniors
• May need to move out of their single-family home due to physical
and/or health constraints or a desire to reduce their responsibilities
for upkeep and maintenance
• Generally single females (widows) in their mid-70's or older
Demand for housing can come from several sources including: household growth, changes in
housing preferences, and replacement need. Household growth necessitates building new
housing unless there is enough desirable vacant housing available to absorb the increase in
households. Demand is also affected by shifting demographic factors such as the aging of the
population, which dictates the type of housing preferred. New housing to meet replacement
need is required, even in the absence of household growth, when existing units no longer meet
the needs of the population and when renovation is not feasible because the structure is physi-
cally or functionally obsolete.
The graphic on the following page provides greater detail of various housing types supported
within each housing life cycle. Information on square footage, average bedrooms/bathrooms,
and lot size is provided on the subsequent graphic.
Housing Demand Overview
The previous sections of this assessment focused on demographic and economic factors driving
demand for housing in the City of Lakeville. In this section, we utilize findings from the eco-
nomic and demographic analysis to calculate demand for new general occupancy housing units
in Lakeville.
Housing markets are driven by a range of supply and demand factors that vary by location and
submarket. The following points outline several of the key variables driving housing demand.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 134
Age Student Rental 1st-time Move-up 2nd Empty Nester/Senior
Cohort Housing Housing Home Buyer Home Buyer Home Buyer Downsizer Housing
18-24 18 - 24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
DEMOGRAPHICS & HOUSING DEMAND
18-34
65-79
25-39
30-49
40-64
55-74
55+ & 65+Lifestyle Renters
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 135
Demographics
Demographics are major influences that drive housing demand. Household growth and for-
mations are critical (natural growth, immigration, etc.), as well as household types, size, age of
householders, incomes, etc.
Economy and Job Growth
The economy and housing market are intertwined; the health of the housing market affects the
broader economy and vice versa. Housing market growth depends on job growth (or the pro-
spect of); jobs generate income growth which results in the formation of more h ouseholds and
can stimulate household turnover. Historically low unemployment rates have driven both exist-
ing home purchases and new-home purchases. Lack of job growth leads to slow or diminishing
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 136
household growth, which in-turn relates to reduced housing demand. Additionally, low income
growth results in fewer move-up buyers which results in diminished housing turnover across all
income brackets.
Consumer Choice/Preferences
A variety of factors contribute to consumer choice and preferences. Many times a change in
family status is the primary factor for a change in housing type (i.e. growing families, empty -
nest families, etc.). However, housing demand is also generated from the turnover of existing
households who decide to move for a range of reasons. Some households may want to move-
up, downsize, change their tenure status (i.e. owner to renter or vice versa), or simply move to
a new location.
Supply (Existing Housing Stock)
The stock of existing housing plays a crucial component in the demand for new housing. There
are a variety of unique household types and styles, not all of which are desirable to today’s con-
sumers. The age of the housing stock is an important component for housing demand, as com-
munities with aging housing stocks have higher demand for remodeling services, replacement
new construction, or new home construction as the current inventory does not provide the
supply that consumers seek.
Pent-up demand may also exist if supply is unavailable as householders postpone a move until
new housing product becomes available.
Housing Finance
Household income is the fundamental measure that dictates what a householder can afford to
pay for housing costs. According to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD), the definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more than 30% of its annual
income on housing (including utilities). Families who pay more than 30% of their income for
housing (either rent or mortgage) are considered cost burdened and may have difficulty afford-
ing necessities such as food, clothing, transportation and medical care.
The ability of buyers to obtain mortgage financing has recently become more challenging due
to COVID-19. Some lenders are requiring higher down payments and higher credit scores.
Mobility
It is important to note that demand is somewhat fluid between other Metro Area communities
and will be impacted by development activity in nearby areas, including other communities out-
side Dakota County. Mobility rates have recently increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 137
Estimated Demand for For-Sale Housing
Table HD-1 presents our demand calculations for general occupancy for-sale housing in Lake-
ville between 2023 and 2040.
The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy for-sale
housing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under
the age of 65. According to our projections, the City of Lakeville is expected to increase by
5,090 households under the age of 65 between 2023 and 2040, which produces demand for
4,327 owner households from new household growth.
Demand is forecast to emerge from existing Lakeville householders through turnover. An
estimated 17,196 owner-occupied households under age 65 are located in the City of Lakeville
in 2023. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 71% of owner
households will turnover in a 17-year period, resulting in 12,159 existing households projected
to turnover. Finally, we estimate 15% of the existing owner households will seek new for-sale
housing, resulting in demand for 1,824 for-sale units through 2040. Combining demand from
household growth and demand from existing households results in demand for 6,150 units
through 2040.
Next, we estimate that 20% of the total demand for new for-sale units in the City of Lakeville
will come from people currently living outside of the city. A portion of this market will be for-
mer residents of the area, such as “snow -birds” heading south for the winters. Adding demand
from outside the City of Lakeville to the existing demand potential results in a total estimated
demand for 7,688 for-sale housing units by 2040.
Based on land available, building trends, and demographic shifts (increasing old er adult popula-
tion), we project 70% of the for-sale owners will prefer traditional single-family product types
while the remaining 30% will prefer a maintenance-free multi-family product (i.e. twinhomes,
townhomes, detached townhomes, condominiums, etc.).
We then subtract the current identified platted lots that are available, under construction or
approved. After subtracting the current lot supply in subdivisions, we find total demand
through 2040 resulting in 4,851 single-family lots and 2,166 multifamily lots.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 138
Projected HH growth under age 65 in the city 2023 to 2040¹
(times) % propensity to own2 x
(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth =
Number of owner households (age 64 and younger) in the city (2023)3
(times) Estimated percent of owner turnover4 x
(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover =
(times) Estimated percent desiring new housing x
(equals) Demand from existing households
(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2023 to 2040 =
(times) Demand from outside the city
(equals) Total demand potential for ownership housing, 2023 to 2040
(times) Percent desiring for-sale single-famiy vs. multifamily5 x 70%30%
(equals) Total demand potential for new single-family & multifamily for-sale housing =5,382 2,306
(minus) Pending undeveloped and developed lots6 -531 140
(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy for-sale housing =4,851 2,166
2 Pct. of owner households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census - 2020).
3 Estimate based on 2020 owner households (under age 65).
4 Based on on turnover from 2020 American Community Survey for households moving over a 8-year period.
5 Based on preference for housing type and land availability
* Multi-family demand includes demand for townhomes, twinhomes, and condominium units.
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
12,159
TABLE HD-1
FOR-SALE HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 to 2040
Demand from Projected Household Growth
5,090
85%
4,327
Demand from Existing Owner Households
17,196
71%
1 Estimated household growth based on projections as adjusted by Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
6 Approved platted lot data does not account for future lots or scattered lot supply, which includes individual lots and lots in older non-
marketing subdivisions.
15%
1,824
6,150
20%
7,688
Single
Family
Multi-
Family*
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 139
Estimated Demand for General-Occupancy Rental Housing
Table HD-2 presents our calculation of general-occupancy rental housing demand in the City of
Lakeville. This analysis identifies potential demand for rental housing that is generated from
both new households and turnover households. A portion of the demand will be drawn from
existing households in the City of Lakeville that want to upgrade their housing situations.
The 65 and older cohort is typically not a target market for new general occupancy rental hous-
ing, therefore, we limit demand from household growth to only those households under the
age of 65. According to our projections, the City of Lakeville is expected to increase by 5,090
households under the age of 65 between 2023 and 2040, which produces demand for 764 units
from new household growth.
Demand is forecast to emerge from existing Lakeville householders through turnover. An
estimated 3,035 renter-occupied households under age 65 are located in the City of Lakeville in
2023. Based on mobility data from the Census Bureau, an estimated 96% of renter households
will turnover in a 17-year period, resulting in 2,913 existing households projected to turnover.
Finally, we estimate 15% of the existing renter households will seek new rental housing,
resulting in demand for 437 rental units through 2040. Combining demand from household
growth and demand from existing households results in demand for 1,201 units through 2040.
Next, we estimate that 25% of the total demand for new rental units in the City of Lakeville will
come from people currently living outside of the city. Adding demand from outside Lakeville to
the existing demand potential, results in a total estimated demand for 1,601 rental housing
units by 2040.
Based on a review of rental household incomes and sizes and monthly rents at existing projects,
we estimate that approximately 10% of the total demand will be for subsidized housing (30%
AMI), 25% will be for affordable housing (40% to 60% AMI), and 65% will be for market rate
housing (non-income restricted).
Next we subtract housing projects that are under construction or approved, since these pro-
jects will satisfy some of the calculated demand for general occupancy rental housing. Cur-
rently, there are 456 pending units. These units are subtracted at 95% occupancy.
After subtracting pending units from the total demand results in demand for 160 subsidized
units, 400 affordable units, and 607 market rate units between 2023 and 2040.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 140
Projected HH growth under age 65 in the city 2023 to 2040¹
(times) Estimated % to be renting their housing2 x
(equals) Projected demand from new HH growth =
Number of renter HHs (age 64 and younger) in the city (2023)3
(times) Estimated percent of renter turnover4 x
(equals) Total existing households projected to turnover =
(times) Estimated percent desiring new rental housing x
(equals) Demand from existing households
(equals) Total demand from HH growth and existing HHs 2023 to 2040 =
(times) Demand from outside the city
(equals) Total demand potential for rental housing, 2023 to 2040
Subsidized Affordable Market Rate
(times) Percent of rental demand by product type5 x 10%25%65%
(equals) Total demand potential for general-occupancy rental housing units =160 400 1,040
(minus) Units under construction or pending6 -0 0 433
(equals) Excess demand for new general occupancy rental housing in the city =160 400 607
2 Pct. of renter households under the age of 65 (U.S. Census - 2020).
3 Estimate based on 2020 renter households (under age 65).
4 Based on on turnover from 2020 American Community Survey for households moving over 17-year period.
5 Based on the combination of current rental product and household incomes of area renters (non-senior households)
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2,913
TABLE HD-2
RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 to 2040
Demand from Projected Household Growth
5,090
15%
764
Demand from Existing Renter Households
3,035
96%
6 Pending units (under construction or approved) at 95% occupancy.
15%
437
1,201
25%
1,601
1 Estimated household growth based on projections as adjusted by Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 141
Estimated Demand for Subsidized/Affordable Active Adult Senior Housing
Table HD-3 presents our demand calculations for subsidized/affordable active adult senior
housing in the City of Lakeville in 2023 and 2030.
In order to arrive at the potential age and income qualified base for low income and affordable
housing, we exclude all seniors households with incomes of $40,000 or more. We also exclude
homeowner households with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999, as these households
would have additional equity that could be converted to monthly income following the sales of
their single-family homes.
Households in a need-based situation (either requiring services or financial assistance) more
readily move to housing alternatives than those in non-need-based situations. Hence, the cap-
ture rate among each age group is higher than for market rate housing. Capture rates are em-
ployed at 1.5% for households age 55 to 64, 10.0% for households age 65 to 74 and 20.0% for
households age 75 and older.
An additional proportion is added for senior households that would move into affordable active
adult housing in the City of Lakeville who currently reside outside of the City. As a result, we es-
timate that seniors currently residing outside the City of Lakeville will generate 30% of the de-
mand for shallow/deep-subsidy active adult senior housing, increasing demand to 208 units.
Seniors in need-based situations are less selective when securing housing than those in non-
need-based situations. We estimate that a high-quality site would capture a greater proportion
of total demand for financially-assisted housing than for market rate housing.
Using the methodology described above results in a demand potential for 208 total subsidized
or affordable senior units. However, after subtracting existing affordable/subsidized active
adult housing and adjusted for household incomes demand results for 39 subsidized units and
no affordable units.
Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes up to $45,000 would be can-
didates for financially-assisted independent housing in 2030. We reduce the potential market
by homeowner households earning between $40,000 and $44,999 that would exceed income-
restrictions once equity from their home sales is converted to monthly income.
Following the same methodology, we project demand in the City of Lakeville for 40 subsidized
units and no affordable units in 2030.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 142
Estimated Demand for Market Rate Active Adult Senior Housing
Table HD-4 presents our demand calculations for market rate active adult senior housing in the
City of Lakeville in 2023 and 2030.
In order to determine demand for active adult senior housing, the potential market is reduced
to those households that are both age and income qualified. The age-qualified market is de-
fined as seniors age 55 and older, although active adult living projects will primarily attract sen-
iors age 65 and older.
We calculate that the minimum income needed to afford monthly rents is $40,000 or more plus
homeowner households with incomes between $35,000 and $39,999 who would be able to
supplement their incomes with the proceeds from a home sale. We estimate the number of
age/income-qualified senior households in the City of Lakeville in 2023 to be 8,035 households.
Adjusting to include appropriate long-term capture rates for each age cohort (1.5% of house-
holds age 55 to 64, about 8.5% of households age 65 to 74, and 15% of households age 75 and
over) results in a market rate demand potential for 402 active adult senior rental units in 2023.
Some additional demand will come from outside of the City of Lakeville. We estimate that 25%
of the long-term demand for active adult senior housing will be generated by seniors currently
residing outside the City of Lakeville. This demand will consist primarily of parents of adult chil-
dren living in the City of Lakeville, individuals who live just outside of the City of Lakeville and
55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
469 498 541 283 408 654
-92 78 86 -48 54 90
x 96%90%64%x 96%90%64%
=381 428 486 =237 359 596
x 1.5%10.0%20.0%x 1.5%10.0%20.0%
=6 43 97 =4 36 119
=146 =159
+62 +53
=208 =212
Deep-Subsidy Shallow-Subsidy Deep-Subsidy Shallow-Subsidy
x 30%x 70%x 30%x 70%
=62 =146 =63 =148
-23 -256 -23 -256
=39 =0 =40 =0
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
# of Households w/ Incomes of < $40,0001
Less Households w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $39,9991
(times ) Homeownership Rate
(equals) Total Potential Market Base
(times) Potential Capture Rate
(equals) Demand Potential
(equals) Potential Demand from Residents
(times) % by Product Type
¹ 2030 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes less than $45,000. Homeowner households with incomes between $40,000 and $44,999 are excluded from the
market potential for financially-assisted housing.
² Existing & pending units (under construction and approved) are deducted at market equilibrium, or 97% occupancy.
(minus) Existing and Pending Sub./Aff. Active Adult Units2
(equals) Excess Demand for Sub./Aff. Units
Age of Householder Age of Householder
(plus) Demand from outside of the City (30%)
(equals) Total Demand Potential
(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type
TABLE HD-3
DEEP-SUBSIDY/SHALLOW SUBSIDY ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 & 2030
20302023
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 143
have an orientation to the area, as well as former residents who desire to return. Together, the
demand from the City of Lakeville seniors and demand from seniors who would relocate to the
City of Lakeville results in a demand for 536 market rate active adult units in 2023.
Active adult demand in the City of Lakeville is apportioned between ownership and rental hous-
ing. Based on the age distribution, homeownership rates and current product available in the
City of Lakeville, we project that 40% of the City of Lakeville’s demand will be for adult owner-
ship housing (214 units) and 60% will be for rental housing (322 units).
Next, we subtract existing competitive market rate units (minus a vacancy factor of 5% to allow
for sufficient consumer choice and turnover) from the owner and rental demand. Subtracting
the existing competitive market rate units results in total demand potential for 214 adult
owner-occupied units and 255 active adult rental units.
Adjusting for inflation, we have estimated that households with incomes of $45,000 or more
and homeowners with incomes of $40,000 to $44,999 would income qualify for market rate in-
dependent senior housing in 2030. Considering the growth in the older adult base and the in-
come distribution of the older adult population in 2030, the methodology projected that de-
mand will be 239 adult owner-occupied units and 459 adult rental units in the City of Lakeville.
55-64 65-74 75+55-64 65-74 75+
4,672 2,400 750 4,967 3,281 1,377
+92 78 86 +48 54 90
x 96%90%64%x 96%90%64%
=4,760 2,470 805 =5,013 3,330 1,435
x 1.5%8.5%15.0%x 1.5%8.5%15.0%
=71 210 121 =75 283 215
=402 =573
+134 +191
=536 =765
Owner-Renter-Owner-Renter-
Occupied Occupied Occupied Occupied
x 40%x 60%x 40%x 60%
=214 =322 =306 =459
-0 -67 -67 -0
=214 =255 =239 =459
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
² Existing and pending units (under construction and approved) are deducted at market equilibrium (95% occupancy).
TABLE HD-4
MARKET RATE ACTIVE ADULT HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 & 2030
2023 2030
Age of Householder Age of Householder
1 2030 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $45,000 and homeowner households with incomes between $40,000 and
$44,999.
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$40,0001
# of Households w/ Incomes of $35,000 to $39,9991
(times ) Homeownership Rate
(equals) Total Potential Market Base
(times) Potential Capture Rate
(equals) Demand Potential
(minus) Existing and Pending MR Active Adult Units2
(equals) Excess Demand for MR Active Adult Units
Potential Demand from Residents
(plus) Demand from Outside of the City (25%)
(equals) Total Demand Potential
(times) % by Product Type
(equals) Demand Potential by Product Type
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 144
Estimated Demand for Independent Living Senior Housing
Table HD-5 presents our demand calculations for independent living housing in the City of Lake-
ville in 2023 and 2030.
The potential age- and income-qualified base for independent living senior housing includes all
senior (65+) households with incomes of $45,000 as well as homeowner households with in-
comes between $40,000 and $44,999 who would qualify with the proceeds from the sales of
their homes. The proportion of eligible homeowners is based on the 2020 ACS homeownership
rates of the City of Lakeville seniors. The number of age, income, and asset-qualified house-
holds in the City of Lakeville is estimated to be 3,197 households in 2023.
Demand for independent living is need-drive, which reduces the qualified market to only the
portion of seniors who need some assistance. Adjusting to include appropriate capture rates
for each age cohort (1.5% of households age 65 to 74 and 15.0% of households age 75 and
older) results in a local demand potential for 157 independent living units in 2023.
We estimate that seniors currently residing outside of the City of Lakeville will generate 25% of
the demand for independent living senior housing. Together, the demand from the City of Lake-
ville seniors and demand from seniors who are willing to locate to the City of Lakeville totals
209 independent living units in 2023.
After subtracting existing and pending independent living units (at 95% occupancy) from de-
mand, overall demand remains for 30 independent living units in 2023.
Adjusting for inflation, we estimate that households with incomes of $50,000 or more and sen-
ior homeowners with incomes between $45,000 and $49,999 would qualify for independent
living housing in 2030. Following the same methodology, demand is calculated to increase to
103 units through 2030.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 145
Estimated Demand for Assisted Living Housing
Table HD-6 presents our demand calculations for assisted living senior housing in the City of
Lakeville in 2023 and 2030. This analysis focuses on the potential private pay/market rate
demand for assisted living units.
The availability of more intensive support services such as meals, housekeeping and personal
care at assisted living facilities usually attracts older, frailer seniors. According to the 2018
Overview of Assisted Living (which is a collaborative research project by the American
Association of Homes and Services for the Aging, the American Seniors Housing Association,
National Center for Assisted Living, and National Investment Center for the Seniors Housing and
Care Industry), the average age of residents in freestanding assisted living facilities was 87 years
in 2008. Hence, the age-qualified market for assisted living is defined as seniors ages 75 and
over, as we estimate that of the half of demand from seniors under age 87, almost all would be
from seniors over age 75. In 2023, there are a projected 2,391 seniors age 75 and older in the
City of Lakeville.
# of Households w/ Incomes of >$45,000¹
# of Households w/ Incomes of $40,000 to $44,999¹++
(times) Homeownership Rate x x
(equals) Total Potential Market Base ==
(times) Potential Capture Rate²x x
(equals) Potential Demand =+=+
Potential Demand from Market Area Residents ==
(plus) Demand from Outside of the City (25%)++
(equals) Total Demand Potential ==
(minus) Existing and Pending Independent Living Units³--
(equals) Total Independent Living Demand Potential ==
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
179 232
30 103
¹ 2030 calculations define income-qualified households as all households with incomes greater than $50,000 and homeowner
households with incomes between $45,000 and $49,999.
2 The potential capture rate is derived from data from the Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health
Interview Survey, 2018 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The capture rate used is the percentage of seniors
needing assistance with IADLs, but not ADLs (seniors needing assistance with ADLs typically need assistance with multiple IADLs
and are primary candidates for service-intensive assisted living).
³ Existing and pending units (under construction and approved) at 95% occupancy (market equilibrium).
157 251
52 84
209 334
1.5%15.0%1.5%15.0%
36 121 49 202
90%64%90%64%
2,392 805 3,276 1,345
1,287
78 86 54 90
TABLE HD-5
MARKET RATE INDEPENDENT LIVING RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2022 & 2030
2023 2030
Age of Householder Age of Householder
65-74 75+65-74 75+
2,322 750 3,227
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 146
Demand for assisted living housing is need-driven, which reduces the qualified market to only
the portion of seniors who need assistance. According to a study completed by the U.S. Census
Bureau (1999 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) files), 30% of
seniors needed assistance with everyday activities (from 25.5% of 75-to-79-year-olds, to 33.6%
of 80-to-84-year-olds and 51.6% of 85+ year olds). Applying these percentages to the senior
population yields a potential assisted living market of 787 seniors in the City of Lakeville.
Due to the supportive nature of assisted living housing, most daily essentials are included in
monthly rental fees, which allow seniors to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on
housing with basic services. Therefore, the second step in determining the potential demand
for assisted living housing in the City of Lakeville is to identify the income-qualified market
based on a senior’s ability to pay the monthly rent. We consider seniors in households with
incomes of $45,000 or greater to be income-qualified for assisted living senior housing in the
City of Lakeville. Households with incomes of $45,000 could afford monthly assisted living fees
of $3,375 by allocating 90% of their income toward the fees.
According to the 2009 Overview of Assisted Living, the average arrival income of assisted living
residents in 2008 was $27,260, while the average annual assisted living fee was $37,281
($3,107/month). This data highlights that seniors are spending down assets to live in assisted
living and avoid institutional care. Thus, in addition to households with incomes of $4 5,000 or
greater, there is a substantial base of senior households with lower incomes who income -qual-
ify based on assets – their homes, in particular.
For each age group in Table HD-6, we estimate the income-qualified percentage to be all sen-
iors in households with incomes above $45,000 (who could afford monthly rents of $3,000+ per
month) plus 40% of the estimated seniors in homeowner households with incomes b elow
$40,000 (who will spend down assets, including home-equity, in order to live in assisted living
housing). This results in a total potential market of 521 units in 2023.
Because the vast majority of assisted living residents are single (88% according to the 2009
Overview of Assisted Living), our demand methodology multiplies the total potential market by
the percentage of seniors age 75+ in the City of Lakeville living alone. Based on 2020 ACS data,
only 39% of age 75+ households in the City of Lakeville lived alone. Applying this percentage
results in a total base of 201 age/income-qualified singles. The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living
found that 12% of residents in assisted living were couples. There is a total of 228 age/income-
qualified seniors needing assistance in the City of Lakeville including both couples and singles.
We estimate that roughly 60% of the qualified market needing significant assistance with
Activities of Daily Living (“ADLs”) would either remain in their homes or less service-intensive
senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need
greater care provided in a skilled care facility. The remaining 40% could be served by assisted
living housing. Applying this potential market penetration rate of 40% results in demand for 91
assisted living units in 2023.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 147
We estimate that a portion of demand for assisted living units (25%) will come from outside of
the City of Lakeville. Applying this figure results in total potential demand for 122 market rate
assisted living units in the City of Lakeville.
There is a total of 183 market rate assisted living units in the City of Lakeville. After deducting
these competitive units (minus a 93% occupancy rate) from the total demand potential, we
calculate that there is current demand for 0 assisted living units in the City of Lakeville in 2023.
After applying the aforementioned calculations to the age/income-qualified base in 2030, no
further demand is found for assisted living units.
Percent Percent
Needing Needing
Age group People Assistance¹People Assistance¹
75 - 79 1,280 25.5%1,842 25.5%
80 - 84 626 33.6%1,017 33.6%
85+485 51.6%659 51.6%
Total 2,391 3,518
Percent Income-Qualified2
Total potential market
(times) Percent living alone x
(equals) Age/income-qualified singles needing assistance =
(plus) Proportion of demand from couples (12%)³+
(equals) Total age/income-qualified market needing assistance =
(times) Potential penetration rate4 x
(equals) Potential demand from City residents =
(plus) Proportion from outside City (25%)+
(equals) Total potential assisted living demand =
(minus) Existing market rate assisted living units5 -
(equals) Total excess market rate assisted living demand =
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
2 Includes households with incomes of $45,000 or more, plus a portion of estimated owner households with incomes below $45,000 (who will
spend down assets, including home-equity, in order to live in assisted living housing). $50,000+ in 2030.
3 The 2009 Overview of Assisted Living (a collaborative project of AAHSA, ASHA, ALFA, NCAL & NIC) found that 12% of assisted living residents
are couples.
5 Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy.
1 The percentage of seniors unable to perform or having difficulting with ADLs, based on the 2018 State of Aging in America published by the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Center for Health Statistics.
4 We estimate that 60% of the qualified market needing assistance with ADLs could either remain in their homes or reside at less advanced
senior housing with the assistance of a family member or home health care, or would need greater care provided in a skilled care facility.
170 198
0 0
30 49
122 196
40%40%
91 147
27 44
228 368
521 839
39%39%
201 324
787 1,151
66%73%
250 340
Number Number
Needing Needing
Assistance1 Assistance1
326 470
210 342
TABLE HD-6
MARKET RATE ASSISTED LIVING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 and 2030
2023 2030
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 148
Estimated Demand for Memory Care Senior Housing
Table HD-7 presents our demand calculations for market rate memory care senior housing in
the City of Lakeville in 2023 and 2030.
Demand is calculated by starting with the estimated City of Lakeville senior (age 65+) popula-
tion in 2023 and multiplying by the incidence rate of Alzheimer’s/dementia among this popula-
tion’s age cohorts. According to the Alzheimer’s Association (Alzheimer’s Disease Facts and Fig-
ures, 2020), 2% of seniors ages 65 to 74, 19% of seniors ages 75 to 84, and 42% of seniors ages
85+ are inflicted with Alzheimer’s Disease. This yields a potential market of 668 seniors in the
City of Lakeville in 2023.
Because of the staff-intensive nature of dementia care, typical monthly fees for this type of
housing are at least $4,000 and range upwards of $5,000 to $6,000 when including service
packages. Based on our review of senior household incomes in the City of Lakeville, homeown-
ership rates and home sale data, we estimate that 58% of seniors in the City of Lakeville would
have incomes and/or assets to sufficiently cover the costs of memory care housing. This figure
takes into account married couple households where one spouse may have memory care needs
and allows for a sufficient income for the other spouse to live independ ently. Multiplying the
number of seniors with Alzheimer’s/dementia (668 seniors) by the income-qualified percentage
results in a total of 458 age/income-qualified seniors in the City of Lakeville in 2023.
According to data from the National Institute of Aging, about 25% of all individuals with
memory care impairments comprise the market for memory care housing units. This figure con-
siders that seniors in the early stages of dementia will be able to live independently with the
care of a spouse or other family member, while those in the later stages of dementia will re-
quire intensive medical care that would only be available in skilled care facilities. Applying this
figure to the estimated population with memory impairments yields a potential market of
about 115 seniors in the City of Lakeville.
We estimate that 25% of the overall demand for memory care housing would come from out-
side of the City of Lakeville. Together, demand totals 153 memory care units in 2023.
We reduce the demand potential by accounting for the existing memory care product in the
City of Lakeville. There is a total of 132 units; however, we reduce the competitive units to in-
clude memory care units at a 7% vacancy rate. Subtracting these competitiv e units results in a
demand for 30 units.
The same calculations are applied to the age/income-qualified base in 2030. Following the
same methodology, potential demand for market rate memory care units is expected to
increase to 59 units in the City of Lakeville through 2030.
HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 149
65 to 74 Population 5,109 6,538
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x 2%x 2%
(equals) Estimated Age 65 to 74 Pop. with Dementia =102 =131
75 to 84 Population 1,906 2,859
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x 19%x 19%
(equals) Estimated Age 75 to 84 Pop. with Dementia =362 =543
85+ Population 485 659
(times) Dementia Incidence Rate¹x 42%x 42%
(equals) Estimated Age 85+ Pop. with Dementia =204 =277
(equals) Total Senior Population with Dementia =668 =951
(times) Percent Income/Asset-Qualified²x 69%x 75%
(equals) Total Income-Qualified Market Base =458 =717
(times) Percent Needing Specialized Memory Care Assistance x 25%x 25%
(equals) Total Need for Dementia Care =115 =179
(plus) Demand from Outside of the Citya (25%)+38 +60
Total Demand for Memory Care Units =153 239
(minus) Existing and Pending Memory Care Units3 -123 -180
(equals) Excess Demand Potential =30 =59
Source: Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
¹ Alzheimer's Association: Alzheimer's Disease Facts & Figures (2020)
² Includes seniors with income at $60,000 or above ($65,000 in 2030) plus a portion of homeowners with incomes below this
threshold (who will spend dow assets, including home-equity, in order to live in memory care housing.
3 Existing and pending units at 93% occupancy.
TABLE HD-7
MARKET RATE MEMORY CARE DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 & 2030
2023 2030
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 150
Introduction/Overall Housing Recommendations
This section summarizes demand calculated for specific housing products in the City of Lakeville
and recommends development concepts to meet the housing needs forecast for Lakeville. All
recommendations are based on findings of the Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis. The
following table and charts illustrate calculated demand by product type.
Based on the finding of our analysis and demand calculations, Table CR-2 provides a summary
of the recommended development concepts by product type for the City of Lakeville. It is im-
portant to note that these proposed concepts are intended to act as a development guide to
most effectively meet the housing needs of existing and future households in Lakeville. The
recommended development types do not directly coincide with total demand as illustrated in
Table CR-1.
Type of Use
General-Occupancy
Rental Units - Market Rate
Rental Units - Affordable
Rental Units - Subsidized
For-Sale Units - Single-family
For-Sale Units - Multifamily
Total General Occupancy Supportable
2023 2030
Age-Restricted (Senior)
Market Rate
Active Adult 470 698
Ownership 214 239
Rental 255 459
Independent Living 30 103
Assisted Living 0 0
Memory Care 30 59
Total Market Rate Senior Supportable 530 859
Affordable/Subsidized
Active Adult - Subsidized 39 40
Active Adult - Affordable 0 0
Total Affordable Senior Supportable 39 40
Note: Demand includes the subtraction of pending projects.
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting LLC
8,184
TABLE CR-1
SUMMARY OF HOUSING DEMAND
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 - 2030/2040
2023 - 2040
607
400
160
4,851
2,166
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 151
607
400
160
4,851
2,166
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Rental Units - Market Rate
Rental Units - Affordable
Rental Units - Subsidized
For-Sale Units - Single-family
For-Sale Units - Multifamily
Units
General-Occupancy Demand by Type (2023 -2040)
214
255
0
39
30
0
30
239
459
0
40
103
0
59
0 100 200 300 400 500
AA - Owner
AA - Rental (MR)
AA - Rental (AFF)
AA - Rental (SUB)
Independent Living
Assisted Living
Memory Care
Units
Senior Housing Demand by Type (2023 & 2030)
2023
2030
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 152
Purchase Price/
Monthly Rent Range¹
Owner-Occupied Homes (2023 to 2040)
Single Family 2
Entry-level $400,000 - $500,000 550 -650 800 -900
Move-up $550,000 - $650,000 800 -900 1,150 -1,250
Executive $650,000+450 -550 600 -700
Total 1,800 -2,100 2,550 -2,850
Townhomes/Twinhomes/Villas 2
Attached Townhomes $350,000 - $475,000 375 -425 525 -575
Twinhomes / Detached Townhomes/Villas $425,000+450 -500 650 -700
Total 825 -925 1,175 -1,275
Owner-Occupied Total 2,625 -3,025 3,725 -4,125
General Occupancy Rental Housing (2023 to 2040)
Market Rate Rental Housing
Apartment-style $1,250/Studio - $2,500/3BR 160 -180 240 -260
Townhomes $2,000/2BR - $2,900/3BR 90 -100 100 -120
Total 250 -280 340 -380
Affordable Rental Housing
Apartment-style Moderate Income3 160 -180 220 -240
Townhomes Moderate Income3 80 -90 80 -90
Total 240 -270 300 -330
Renter-Occupied Total 490 -550 640 -710
Senior Housing (i.e. Age Restricted) (2023 to 2030)
Active Adult Ownership / Co-op4 $200,000+-
Active Adult Market Rate Rental $1,800/1BR - $2,500/2BR -
Independent Living $2,400+ per month -
Memory Care $5,000+ per month -
Senior Total -
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
3 Affordablity subject to income guidelines per Minnesota Housing Finance Agency (MHFA).
4 Senior Cooperative assumption cost is based on share cost = 40% of its actual value.
Note - Recommended development does not coincide with total demand. The City of Lakeville may not be able to accommodate all
recommended housing types based on a variety of factors (i.e. development constraints, land availability, etc.)
2 Recommendations include the absorption of existing previously platted lots. Most entry-level demand will be accommodated through the
resale market.
250 350
80 100
40 50
520 700
¹ Pricing in 2023 dollars. Pricing can be adjusted to account for inflation.
Units Units
2023 - 2030
150 200
TABLE CR-2
RECOMMENDED HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
CITY OF LAKEVILLE
2023 - 2030/2040
2023 - 2030 2030 - 2040
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 153
Recommended Housing Product Types
For-Sale Housing
Single-Family Housing
Table HD-1 identified demand for 4,851 single-family units in the City of Lakeville through 2040.
These calculations factor in vacant platted lots (see Table FS-10 and P-1). Excluding the vacant
lots that have yet to be developed, we find demand for about 5,382 single-family homes in Lak-
eville between 2023 and 2040.
The lot supply benchmark for growing communities is a three - to five-year lot supply, which en-
sures adequate consumer choice without excessively prolonging developer-carrying costs.
Given the number of existing platted lots in Lakeville and the number of homes constructed an-
nually, the current lot supply is able to meet historical demand for the next two years.
Due to the price of the existing housing stock in Lakeville, most of the existing older housing
stock appeals to entry-level buyers. Entry-level homes, which we generally classify as homes
priced under $400,000 will be mainly satisfied by existing single-family homes as residents of
existing homes move into newer housing products built in the Lakeville area, such as move-up
single-family homes, twinhomes, rental housing and senior housing. A move -up buyer or step-
up buyer is typically one who is selling one house and purchasing another one, usually a larger
and more expensive home. Usually the move is desired because of a lifestyle change, such as a
new job or a growing family. Much of the new single-family construction in Lakeville has tar-
geted move-up and executive buyers (pricing $550,000+); in part because of the high land costs
and increasing construction, material, and labor costs. However, through our research we find
demand for a variety of price points of new single-family homes. Although there would be sub-
stantial demand for a new single-family housing product priced under $400,000, financially it
will be extremely difficult to develop due to land costs, rising labor and material costs, and 40-
year high inflation this past year.
The new construction market has been rather hot in Lakeville over the past few years as the city
has permitted an average of 484 single-family homes annually. Coming out of the Great Reces-
sion, the city permitted an average of 175 single-family homes. Over the next decade, Maxfield
Research is conservatively estimating demand for about 275 new homes annually.
In addition to the currently vacant lots, we recommend building the highest proportion of
homes in the move-up level, followed by entry-level, and then executive homes. Once those
lots are taken new lots will need to be platted to meet the additional demand. Many of the ex-
isting lots are flat and lack the necessary topography for walk-outs; in addition some of the lots
have little vegetation. Therefore, demand for lots within subdivisions offering a variety of lot
types will be in strong demand.
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 154
For-Sale Multifamily Housing
A growing number of households desire alternative housing types such as townhouses,
twinhomes and condominiums. Typically, the target market for for-sale multifamily housing is
empty-nesters and retirees seeking to downsize from their single-family homes. In addition,
professionals, particularly singles and couples without children, also will seek townhomes if
they prefer not to have the maintenance responsibilities of a single-family home. In many Twin
Cities housing markets, younger households also find purchasing multifamily units to be gener-
ally more affordable than purchasing new single-family homes.
Our analysis of the City of Lakeville for-sale housing stock found numerous maintenance-free
products, however, historically buyers in Lakeville have preferred the single-family house. Given
the aging of the population and the growth rate in the 55+ population (especially 65 -74 age co-
horts), Lakeville would benefit from a more diversified housing stock. Based on the changing
demographics and the need for alternative housing types, demand was calculated for 2,166
new multifamily for-sale units in Lakeville through 2040. Since 2010, there have been 1,082
new townhome/twinhome/quad units constructed in Lakeville.; an average of about 83 annu-
ally for that timeframe.
These attached units could be developed as twinhomes, detached townhomes or villas, cot-
tages, townhomes/row homes, or any combination. Because the main target market is empty-
nesters and young seniors, the majority of townhomes should be one-level, or at least have a
master suite on the main level if a unit is two -stories. The following provides greater detail into
townhome and twinhome style housing.
• Twinhomes– By definition, a twinhome is basically two units with a shared wall with each
owner owning half of the lot the home is on. Some one-level living units are designed in
three-, four-, or even six-unit buildings in a variety of configurations. The swell of support
for twinhome and one-level living units is generated by the aging baby boomer generation,
which is increasing the numbers of older adults and seniors who desire low -maintenance
housing alternatives to their single-family homes but are not ready to move to service-en-
hanced rental housing (i.e. downsizing or right sizing).
Traditionally most twinhome developments have been designed with the garage being the
prominent feature of the home; however, today’s newer twinhomes have much more archi-
tectural detail. Many higher-end twinhome developments feature designs where one gar-
age faces the street and the other to the side yard. This design helps reduce the promi-
nence of the garage domination with two separate entrances. Housing products designed
to meet the needs of these aging Lakeville residents, many of whom desire to stay in their
current community if housing is available to meet their needs, will be needed into the fore-
seeable future.
Twinhomes are also a preferred for-sale product by many builders as units can be devel-
oped as demand warrants. Because twinhomes bring higher density and economies of scale
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 155
to the construction process, the price point can be lower than stand -alone single-family
housing. We recommend a broad range of pricing for twinhomes; however base pricing
should start at around $425,000.
Many older adults and seniors will move to this housing product with substantial equity in
their existing single-family home and will be willing to purchase a maintenance-free home
that is priced similar to their existing single-family home. The twinhomes should be associa-
tion-maintained with 40’- to 50’-wide lots on average.
• Detached Townhomes/Villas – An alternative to the twinhome is the one-level villa
product and/or rambler. This product also appeals mainly to baby boomers and empty
nesters seeking a product similar to a single-family living on a smaller scale while receiv-
ing the benefits of maintenance-free living. Many of these units are designed with a
walk-out or lookout lower level if the topography warrants. We recommend lot widths
ranging from 45 to 55 feet with main-level living areas between 1,600 and 1,800 square
feet. The main level living area usually features a master bedroom, great room, dining
room, kitchen, and laundry room while offering a “flex room” that could be another
bedroom, office, media room, or exercise room. However, owners should also be able
to purchase the home with the option to finish the lower level (i.e. additional bedrooms,
game room, storage, den/study, etc.) and some owners may want a slab-on-grade prod-
uct for affordability reasons. Finally, builders could also provide the option to build a
two-story detached product that could be mixed with the villa product.
Pricing for a detached townhome/villa will vary based on a slab-on-grade home versus a
home with a basement. Base pricing should start at $430,000 and will fluctuate based
on custom finishes, upgrades, etc.
• Side-by-Side and Back-to-Back Townhomes – This housing product is designed with three or
four or more separate living units in one building and can be built in a variety of configura-
tions. With the relative affordability of these units and multi-level living, side-by-side and
back-to-back townhomes have the greatest appeal among entry-level households without
children, young families and singles and/or roommates across the age span. However, two-
story townhomes would also be attractive to middle-market, move-up, and empty-nester
buyers. Many of these buyers want to downsize from a single-family home into mainte-
nance-free housing, many of which will have equity from the sale of their single-family
home.
Because multifamily for-sale housing is mostly untested in Lakeville, we recommend a four-
plex concept that could be back-to-back with main-level master bedrooms that would cater
to empty-nesters. If the product is successful, future phases could include row homes that
would increase density and cater to a broader market. Units should have base prices from
$350,000 to $400,000 and will fluctuate based on unit finishes, interior vs. exterior units,
etc.
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 156
General Occupancy Multifamily Rental Housing
Maxfield Research calculated demand for 1,167 general-occupancy rental units in Lakeville
through 2040 (607 market rate, 400 affordable, and 160 subsidized units). Please note, the de-
mand figures already account for several rental projects either under construction or in the de-
velopment pipeline (these have been subtracted out). Our inventory of the general-occupancy
rental market found below market equilibrium vacancy rates for stabilized properties; indicat-
ing demand for new product. As identified in Table R-2, the majority of townhome-style multi-
family rental buildings in Lakeville are income-restricted, and more traditional apartment-style
developments are market rate.
• Market Rate Rental - Lakeville has experienced a rental housing boom this past decade
as over 1,090 market rate units have been delivered since 2010 and there are another
699 market rate units pending or proposed as of December 2022. Despite all the new
construction, the market rate vacancy rate for stabilized properties remains below equi-
librium at 3.0% (excluding projects in initial lease-up).
We recommend new market rental project(s) that will attract a diverse resident profile;
including young to mid-age professionals as well as singles and couples across all ages.
To appeal to a wide target market, we suggest a market rate apartment project(s) with a
unit mix consisting of one-bedroom units, one-bedroom plus den units or two-bedroom
units, and two-bedroom plus den or three-bedroom units. Larger three-bedroom units
would be attractive to households with children.
Monthly rents (in 2023 dollars) should range from $1,250 for a one-bedroom unit to
$2,500 for a three-bedroom unit. Average rents in Lakeville are average around $1.81
per square foot and new construction will be near $2.00 per square foot to be financially
feasible. Monthly rents can be trended up by 2.0% annually prior to occupancy to ac-
count for inflation depending on overall market conditions. Because of construction and
development costs, it may be difficult for a market rate apartment to be financially fea-
sible with rents lower than the suggested per square foot price. Thus, for thi s type of
project to become a reality, there may need to be a public – private partnership to re-
duce development costs and bring down the rents or the developer will need to provide
smaller unit sizes.
New market rate rental units should be designed with contemporary amenities that in-
clude open floor plans, higher ceilings, in-unit washer and dryer, full appliance package,
central air-conditioning, and garage parking.
• Market Rate General Occupancy Rental Townhomes– In addition to the traditional
multifamily structures, we find that demand exists for larger townhome units for
families – including those who are new to the community and want to rent until they
find a home for purchase. A portion of the overall market rate demand could be a
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 157
townhome style development versus traditional multifamily design. We recommend
a project with rents of approximately $2,000 for two-bedroom units to $2,900 for
three-bedroom units. Units should feature contemporary amenities (i.e. in-unit
washer/dryer, high ceilings, etc.) and an attached two car garage.
• Affordable and Subsidized Rental Housing– Subsidized housing receives financial as-
sistance (i.e. operating subsidies, tax credits, rent payments, etc.) from governmen-
tal agencies in order to make the rent affordable to low-to-moderate income house-
holds. Although we find demand for about 160 subsidized units over this decade,
this product is very difficult to pencil out given the lack of funding available. As
such, all of the income-restricted housing will fall under the “affordable” product
through the tax credit program. We found strong demand for affordable rental
housing (400 units); hence development could result from an apartment-style build-
ing and/or townhome-style affordable units.
Senior Housing
As illustrated in Table CR-1, demand exists for all types of senior housing product types in Lake-
ville through 2030. Due to the aging of Lakeville’s population, senior housing product types
show moderate to strong demand among all product types in the short-term. Collectively, sen-
ior housing shows demand for 900 units across all service levels.
Development of additional senior housing is recommended in order to provide housing oppor-
tunity to these aging residents in their stages of later life. The development of additional senior
housing serves a two-fold purpose in meeting the housing needs in Lakeville: older adult and
senior residents are able to relocate to new age-restricted housing in Lakeville, and existing
homes and rental units that were occupied by seniors become available to other new house-
holds. Hence, development of additional senior housing does not mean the housing needs of
younger households are neglected; it simply means that a greater percentage of housing need
is satisfied by housing unit turnover. The types of housing products needed to accommodate
the aging population base are discussed individually in the following section.
• Active Adult (Ownership) – Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC projected demand
for 239 active adult ownership units through 2030. There were no identified senior
age-restricted for-sale development in Lakeville at this time. However, there is one
proposed senior cooperative, Estoria Lakeville, which is slated to include 91 units.
Considering the preliminary phase of this proposed project, it was not subtracted
from our demand calculations and would satisfy some demand for active adult
owner-occupied housing.
Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC recommends a cooperative development(s)
with a mix of two- and three-bedroom units and a market value share cost of about
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 158
$200,000. The cooperative model, in particular, appeals to a larger base of potential
residents in that it has characteristics of both rental and ownership housing. Coop-
erative developments allow prospective residents an ownership option and home-
stead tax benefits without a substantial upfront investment as would be true in a
condominium development or life care option. Maxfield Research & Consulting, LLC
has found the cooperative model to be very well-accepted in rural communities
across the Midwest.
• Active Adult Market Rate Rental – Demand was projected for about 459 market rate
active adult rental units in Lakeville through 2030. Currently, there is only one mar-
ket rate rental active adult products in Lakeville; Spero Senior Living which has 70
market rate units.
Development of this product could be in a separate stand -alone facility or in a
mixed-income project. A mixed-income building could include a portion of units that
would be affordable to seniors with incomes established the Minnesota Housing Fi-
nance Agency. We recommend between 250 to 350 units be built this decade. The
project modest rents with base monthly rents starting at $1,800 per month for one-
bedroom units and from $2,500 or more for two-bedroom units. The project should
offer transportation, activities, and optional services for housekeeping, etc.
Because of the hot real estate market since the pandemic, seniors who decide to sell
their home today will receive top dollar and can capitalize on the strong housing mar-
ket and reallocate funds to maintenance-free housing products.
• Active Adult Affordable and Subsidized Rental – Demand in Lakeville was calculated
for only 40 subsidized senior units and no affordable senior units through 2030. This
is in part due to the healthy supply of existing affordable/subsidized senior units and
due to the higher incomes and homeownership rate in Lakeville. And although this
product would be well received by seniors in and near the Lakeville area; it can be dif-
ficult to develop given financing challenges and development costs. Affordable sen-
ior housing will likely be a low-income tax credit project through the Minnesota Hous-
ing Finance Agency (MHFA). MHFA recently started to consider affordable senior
housing projects under the tax credit program and is slowly starting to expand financ-
ing for this product type. Affordable/subsidized senior housing products can also be
incorporated into a mixed-income building which may increase the projects financial
feasibility. Most likely, this product type would be developed through the Dakota
County CDA or other non-profits.
• Independent Living – Demand was calculated for just over 100 independent living
units through 2030. Based on this demand, multiple projects could be supported in
the community to meet this forthcoming demand. We recommend a mix of one-bed-
room, one-bedroom plus den, and two-bedroom units. Base monthly rents should
range from $2,400 for one-bedroom units to $3,600 for two-bedroom units. The
RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 159
monthly fees should include all utilities (except telephone and basic cable/satellite
television) and the following services:
• I’m OK program;
• Daily noon meal;
• Regularly scheduled van transportation;
• Social, health, wellness and educational programs;
• 24-hour emergency call system; and
• Complimentary use of laundry facilities.
In addition, meals and other support and personal care services will be available to
congregate residents on a fee-for-service basis, such as laundry, housekeeping, etc.
New independent housing could be developed adjacent to an existing senior project
or in a stand-alone development.
• Assisted Living and Memory Care Senior Housing – Based on our analysis and the ex-
isting senior supply in Lakeville, demand was projected to support an additional 59
memory care units an no new assisted living units through 2030. The City of Lakeville
has a healthy number of assisted living and memory care units with four assisted liv-
ing facilities (183 units) and five memory care facilities (132 units).
Equilibrium for assisted living and memory care is considered a vacancy rate of 7%.
And although vacancy rates for assisted living (5.5%) and memory care (6.1%) were
found to be below market equilibrium at the time of survey, there are numerous
pending senior projects in the pipeline.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 160
Challenges and Opportunities
The following were identified as the greatest challenges and opportunities for developing the
recommended housing types (in no particular order – sorted alphabetically).
• Accessory Dwelling Units (“ADU”): Accessory dwelling units (“ADUs”) go by several differ-
ent names such as: In-law suites, garage apartments, backyard cottages, granny flats, guest
houses, etc. An ADU is simply a small, stand-alone residential dwelling unit located on the
same property as a detached single-family home. However, in some cases an ADU could in-
clude an addition on an existing home, apartment over a garage, or be locating within an
attic or basement within the home. Legally, however, an ADU is still a part of the original
parcels PID number and title is with the property owner. The most common reason for
building an ADU is generating rental income for the homeowner or housing a family mem-
ber (often for free).
Because of increased density on the property and smaller sized units, ADUs have the poten-
tial to increase housing affordability and create a wider range of housing options. Many
communities that permit ADUs in their zoning code limit the number of accessory structures
to just one; however, some cities have recently revised their zoning code to allow up to two
accessory structures. Some communities monitor ADU construction by limiting new con-
struction to only owner-occupied housing units (main structure is owned), minimum lot
size, setbacks, and number of occupants or bedrooms in the accessory structure.
Maxfield Research recommends that local planning departments review their existing zon-
ing code and if not already permitted, revise zoning codes to ensure ADUs can be a permit-
ted use. Demand for ADUs has increased significantly since the COVID -19 pandemic as
homeowners sought to move family members together in a multi-generational environ-
ment. Also, many homeowners will design the ADU as a multifunctional space as a home
office and living space away from the main home. Finally, ADUs offer another solution for
meeting rental housing demand and/or short-term housing needs.
• Affordable Housing. Table HA-1 identified Dakota County Area Median Incomes (“AMI”)
and the fair market rents by bedroom type (i.e. $1,078/one-bedroom unit). The average
market rate rent averages for one-bedroom units is about $1,521/month and the overall av-
erage rent per square foot is about $1.93. Because of the higher proportion of new rental
product and higher rent structures at the new market rental buildings in Lakeville, the mini-
mum incomes needed to afford a luxury rental are significantly higher than older existing
rentals in Lakeville and neighboring communities. The new rental housing development tar-
gets “lifestyle renters” or those with higher incomes who have enough money to buy a
house but choose to rent for the convenience and lifestyle. Many of these renters may be
cost burdened, but they choose so for the location or amenities. Additionally, the Dakota
County CDA has been a major driver of affordable housing as they have helped develop five
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 161
general occupancy rental properties that include 170 affordable units and four senior active
adult properties that include 264 affordable units.
• Aging Population. As illustrated in Table D-2, there is growth in the City of Lakeville senior
population, especially among ages 75 plus (44% growth through 2028). In addition, Table D-
7 shows the City of Lakeville homeownership rates among seniors 65+ is approximately
80%. High homeownership rates among seniors indicate there could be lack of senior hous-
ing options, or simply that many seniors prefer to live in their home and age in place. Be-
cause of the rising population of older adults, demand for alternative maintenance-free
housing products should be rising this decade. In addition, demand for home health care
services and home remodeling programs to assist seniors with retrofitting their existing
homes should also increase.
• Builders. The Lakeville new construction market has historically been dominated by larger,
national builders and regional based builders. Across the Metro Area, 68% of all new homes
constructed in 2021 were by the top ten production builders. The following chart summa-
rizes the differences between production, custom, and spec builders. Production builders
have increased their market share since the Great Recession in the Twin Cities and across
the country, in part because competitors defaulted on lots and homes and smaller builders
have gone out of business, while production builders were able to acquire land holdings for
a fraction of the original cost to develop. The production builders have also driv en new
home activity from the development side as land developers are unable to absorb lot devel-
opment costs for open builder developments. Production builders utilize economies of
scale to help keep costs more affordable; whereas smaller local builders without the volume
cannot compete on price like the national builders. However, many of the regional builders
such as Robert Thomas Homes are able to pass economies of scale along yet offer more cus-
tom builder like finishes.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 162
Production Builder Custom Builder Spec Builder
Land
Home Plans
Volume
Pricing
Advantages
Disadvantages
Source: Maxfield Research and Consulting, LLC
Most of the decisions have already been
made and buyer may have fewer options.
Stock floor plans; however buyers have
home style and upgrade options that have
been pre-selected by builder.
BUILDER TYPES & CHARACTERISTICS
Typically built on land owned by the
builder/developer. Most production
builders develop all of the homes within
the subdivisions they plat and develop.
Built on land purchased by the home buyer
or builder. Most custom buiders do not
develop the land/lots.
Few modifications or change orders, fewer
options, lot selection based on availability
of builder.
Price per square foot is higher, more time
to build, signficantly more decision time
needed from buyers.
Varies based on builder. There are national
and regional production builders.
One-of-a-kind house. Site specific and
customized for a specific client.
Generally build for a variety of price points
from entry-level, move-up, and executive.
Tend to cater to move-up or exective-level
buyers.
Typically less than 20 or 25 per year.Varies.
Varies. Most spec homes are entry-level or
modest homes. However, spec homes can
range across all price points.
Home plan per builder. If home sells early
during construction phase; buyers have
some ability to customize the home.
Built on land purchased by the builder.
Builder "speculates" they will build and sell
a home prior to finding a buyer.
Lower costs per square foot, homes can be
built quicker, fewer decisions for home
owners.
Personal service, more creative control,
customizable, more flexible, buyer may
have more land options.
Lower cost floor plans provides economies
of scale. Homes can also be completed
relatively fast.
1,601
816
800
602
366
241
205
250
109
135
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Lennar
M/I Homes
D.R. Horton, Inc.
Pulte Home of Minnesota, LLC
Capstone Homes, Inc.
Hanson Builders, Inc
Robert Thomas Homes, Inc.
Creative Homes, Inc.
Gonyea Homes & Remodeling
Eternity Homes, LLC
Top 10 Builders by Revenue & Units: 2021
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 163
• Construction & Development Costs. The cost to build and develop new single-family hous-
ing has increased significantly over the past decade and since the Great Recession in all
markets across the U.S.A., as seen in the chart below. New construction pricing peaked last
decade between 2005 and 2007 before falling during the recession. Pricing in nearly every
market across the United States decreased between 2008 and 2011 before starting to re-
bound in 2012 and beyond. However, since the Great Recession it has become increasingly
difficult for builders to construct entry-level new homes due to a number of constraints –
rising land costs, rising material and labor costs, lack of construction labor, and increasing
regulation and entitlement fees. As a result, affordable new construction homes have be-
come rare as builders are unable to pencil-out modestly priced new construction. New con-
struction in Lakeville is difficult to achieve under $400,000. At the same time, new con-
struction pricing is at an all-time high coming out of the pandemic due to strong demand
and supply and labor constraints for builders that are driving up housing costs . However,
with continued interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in 2022, construction costs are
slowly starting to normalize as labor is loosening.
• COVID-19 Impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has had both direct and indirect effects on the
housing industry. The senior housing industry was directly impacted as the virus affected
older adults at a much higher rate. Senior properties hit record high vacancy rates and many
seniors continue to age in place as long as possible as they have avoided living in a shared
space. However, senior properties in Lakeville are performing significantly better than the
Metro Area as whole.
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Median Sales Price of New SF Homes: 2000 to 2021
U.S.A.Midwest
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 164
Economically, the unemployment rate in Lakeville was considerably low compared to the
rest of the country during the pandemic. In early 2020, the unemployment rates were un-
der 3% before peaking at 5.4% for the year. Unemployment quickly decreased to 2.7% in
2021 and is at a record love of 1.6% at the end of 2022.
Despite the pandemic over the past three years, the local real estate market has performed
above expectations and strong demand remains for housing. Lakeville was a major destina-
tion for relocating households from more urban communities/neighborhoods in the Twin
Cities. Supply remains at an all-time low, however that is slowly leveling-out now with ele-
vated mortgage rates. The pandemic has changed buyer preferences; b oth internally and
externally. Buyers have a greater desire for outdoor features, green space, more square
footage, flexible spaces for home offices, and healthy living conditions. Buyers are also
trading location for more home by locating further from their place of employment. There
is also a preference toward new construction and the new home market has been strong
since 2020 as builders have not kept the pace with demand.
On the rental side, social distancing initially had an impact on common corridor apartment
buildings as all communal areas were shut down and tenants could not utilize amenities.
Since the pandemic, the demand for smaller unit sizes has waned as renters desire larger
spaces as they work from home, utilize for fitness, etc. With t elecommuting and work from
home being the norm tenants are seeking a separation of work and live spaces as well as
access to balconies and patios to provide fresh air and extra space. There has been strong
demand for townhome-style rentals or a building that has been designed with a separate
entrance to eliminate the possible of interacting with others and catching the virus. These
trends and preferences will likely continue as the pandemic has waned .
• Housing Programs. Many communities and local Housing and Redevelopment Authori-
ties (HRAs) offer programs to promote and preserve the existing housing stock. In addi-
tion, there are various regional and state organizations that assist local communities en-
hance their housing stock. City of Lakeville can explore a toolbox of housing programs
that would aid in the enhancement of Lakeville housing stock. The following is a sam-
pling of potential programs that could be explored:
• Construction Management Services: Assist homeowners regarding local building
codes, reviewing contractor bids, etc. Typically provided as a service by the
building department.
• Home-Building Trades Partnerships – Partnership between local Technical Col-
leges or High Schools that offer building trades programs. Affordability is gained
through reduced labor costs provided by the school. New housing production
serves as the “classroom” for future trades people to gain experience in the con-
struction industry.
• Housing Fair - Free seminars and advice for homeowners related to remodeling
and home improvements. Most housing fairs offer educational seminars and
"ask the expert" consulting services. Exhibitors include architects, landscapers,
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 165
building contractors, home products, city inspectors, financial services, commu-
nity agencies, among others.
• Home Energy Loans – Offer low interest home energy loans to make energy im-
provements in their homes.
• Household and Outside Maintenance for the Elderly (H.O.M.E.) Program – Per-
sons 60 and over receive homemaker and maintenance services. Typical services
include house cleaning, grocery shopping, yard work/lawn care, and other mis-
cellaneous maintenance requests.
• Infill Lots – The City purchases blighted or substandard housing units from willing
sellers. After the home has been removed, the vacant land is placed into the
program for future housing redevelopment. Future purchasers can be builders
or the future owner-occupant who has a contract with a builder. Typically all
construction must be completed within an allocated time-frame (one year in
most cases).
• Land Banking – Land Banking is a program of acquiring land with the purpose of
developing at a later date. After a holding period, the land can be sold to a de-
veloper (often at a price lower than market) with the purpose of developing af-
fordable housing.
• Land Trust - Utilizing a long-term 99-year ground lease, housing is affordable as
the land is owned by a non-profit organization. Subject to income limits and tar-
geted to workforce families with low-to-moderate incomes. If the family
chooses to sell their home, the selling price is lower as land is excluded.
• Realtor Forum - Typically administered by City with partnership by local school
board. Inform local Realtors about school district news, current devel opment
projects, and other marketing factors related to real estate in the community. In
addition, Realtors usually receive CE credits.
• Remodeling Advisor - Typically a City partners with 3rd party to provide expert
advice to homeowners. Remodeling advisors can help evaluate home improve-
ment projects, review bids, building codes, zoning, etc.
• Rental Collaboration - City organizes regular meetings with owners, property
managers, and other stakeholders operating in the rental housing industry. Col-
laborative, informational meetings that includes city staff, updates on economic
development and real estate development, and updates from the local police,
fire department, and building inspection departments.
• Rent to Own - Income-eligible families rent for a specified length of time with the
end-goal of buying a home. The HRA saves a portion of the monthly rent that
will be allocated for a down payment on a future house.
• Senior Housing Regeneration Program - Partnership between multiple organiza-
tions that assists seniors transitioning to alternative housing options such as sen-
ior housing, condominiums, townhomes, etc.
• Tax Abatement: A temporary reduction in property taxes over a specific time pe-
riod on new construction homes or home remodeling projects. Encourages new
construction or rehabilitation through property tax incentives.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 166
• Tax Increment Financing (TIF): Program that offers communities a flexible fi-
nancing tool to assist housing projects and related infrastructure. TIF enables
communities to dedicate the incremental tax revenues from new housing devel-
opment to help make the housing more affordable or pay for related costs. TIF
funds can be used to provide a direct subsidy to a particular housing project or
they can also be used to promote affordable housing by setting aside a portion
of TIF proceeds into a dedicated fund from other developments receiving TIF.
• Waiver or Reduction of Development Fees – There are several fees developers
must pay including impact fees, utility and connection fees, park land dedication
fees, etc. To help facilitate affordable housing, some fees could be waived or re-
duced to pass the cost savings onto the housing consumer .
• Inflation. U.S. inflation rates hit a new 40-year high of 8.6% in 2022, the biggest yearly in-
crease since December 1981. Rampant price increased for nearly every good and service
and specifically energy and food costs are having an impact on American co nsumers and will
eventually affect housing affordability. As a result, the Federal Reserve is implementing in-
terest rate hikes and increasing borrowing costs to hopefully offset a recession. As interest
rates have increased for-sale housing demand has slowed and demand for rental housing
has increased. This has resulted in higher housing costs for both buyers and renters. Hous-
ing assets are in higher demand during inflationary times as real estate values tend to hedge
inflation and investors seek out rental housing assets as equity continues to grow. In the
short term, household balance sheets will continue to be stretched as rising costs affect Lak-
eville residents. This could hinder housing production in the near term as new construction
will be difficult to pencil.
• Job Growth/Employment. The Covid-19 pandemic created a number of new challenges for
businesses, workers, and government. As depicted earlier, the unemployment rate in Lake-
ville has historically been under 4.0% before shortly rising to 5.4% during the peak shut-
downs in spring 2020. These unprecedented challenges had an economic ripple effect
across the country as thousands of Americans found themselves out of work with increases
in unemployment. However, Lakeville employers weathered the pandemic much better
than most of the country as the unemployment rate has stayed low and the area brought
back lost jobs from the initial shutdowns earlier in 2020.
The Lakeville unemployment rate has declined to a low of 1.6% and the labor force has
grown to a new high in 2022. Although a low unemployment rate is generally considered
positive news, an extremely low unemployment rate can be challenging for employers look-
ing to add additional staff. Although additional job creation supports the need for housing,
a lack of housing, and especially, affordable housing, can place pressure on attracting work-
ers and new jobs.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 167
• Land/Lot Supply. Tables FS-10 and FS-11 inventoried active subdivisions with available lots.
Based on our research there are just over 500 vacant developed and 1,355 fut ure single-
family lots, not included scattered lots throughout the city. Based on historical building per-
mit trends, the existing platted lots and future lots would be absorbed in about four to five
years. As a result, new lots will need to be platted soon as recommend a vacant lot supply
of about 3- to 5-years for a balanced market.
• Lifestyle Renters. Historically, householders rented because they couldn’t afford to buy or
didn’t have the credit to qualify for a mortgage. Today that is no longer the case, and many
householders are renting by choice. High-income renters represent the fastest growing
market segment of the rental market today; having grown 48% over the past decade. De-
mand is being driven by the Millennials, would-be buyers on the side-line, and empty nest-
ers. As a result, rental housing is one of the preferred real estate asset classes today across
country. Lifestyle renters are attracted to developments offering excellent finishing quality,
extensive common area facilities, and typically focus on an environment providing a more
social experience. Most of the new market rate rental construction in Lakeville targets the
lifestyle renter.
• Lot Size: Across the Twin Cities Metro Area and U.S. there has been a growing trend of lot
size compression for decades and especially since the Great Recession of last decade. As il-
lustrated in the chart below, the median lot size of a new single-family detached home in
the United States sold in 2019 dropped to its smallest size since the Census Bureau has been
tracking lot sizes. Nationwide median lot sizes have dropped below 8,200 square feet (0.19
acres) before increasing in 2021 from the pandemic. At the same time, lot sizes decreased
in the Midwest to the lowest levels recorded in 2021, down about 15% from 2010.
Lot sizes have decreased in part due to increasing raw land prices, lot prices, and rising reg-
ulatory and infrastructure costs (i.e. curb and gutter, streets, etc.). As a result, builders and
developers have reduced lot sizes in an effort to increase density and absorb higher land de-
velopment costs across more units. Many newer single-family subdivisions in the Twin Cities
have lot widths of about 65 to 75 feet, down from the standard wi dth of 80 to 90 feet prior
to the Great Recession. As illustrated in Table FS-8, about 40% of lot widths are between 70
to 79 feet wide vs. 25% in the Metro Area. A reduction in lot sizes will increase density and
provide increased affordability to buyers.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 168
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
19929394199596979899200001020304200506070809201011121314201516171819202021Median Lot Size of Detached SF Homes -USA & Midwest
United States Midwest
3.4%
18.0%
13.7%
39.4%
20.2%
5.3%
0.0%
0.0%
7.1%
15.7%
32.3%
24.5%
8.7%
3.8%
1.2%
6.8%
0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%45.0%
0 - 49
50 - 59
60 - 69
70 - 79
80 - 89
90 - 99
100 - 109
110+
Closings
Lakeville vs. Metro Area Annual Closings by Lot Size: 4thQ 2022
7-County Metro Total Lakeville
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 169
• Modular Housing. Modular housing, often referred to as prefab housing, is the construc-
tion of housing units in a controlled factory-like setting or on a manufacturers site or lumber
yard. Modular housing is gaining steam from developers and investors to combat high con-
struction costs, labor shortages, and speed-up the construction timeline. The biggest ad-
vantage modular housing provides is time and shaving months of holding costs off the con-
sumer’s bottom line. Originally modular housing was mostly single-family oriented; how-
ever, developers are now constructing entire apartment buildings, hotels, senior living, man
camps, and college dorms. Historically the biggest challenge of modular housing is trans-
portation, shipping costs, and perception. Modular housing has made huge strides over the
decades and are now built on concrete foundations or include basements. The industry
continues to battle the stigma of the older mobile homes as the appraisal community con-
tinually mis-appraises modular homes due to biases or lack of education on the product.
Locally, there is new manufacturer in Owatonna and future modular plants in the works.
Maxfield Research believes there is opportunity in the modular construction sector that can
be utilized in Lakeville, providing a win-win scenario by providing housing production and
passing cost savings along to consumers.
If not already, we recommend the City of Lakeville revise zoning codes to allow for this type
of housing if it is not permitted. However, design standards should be enforced in order to
ensure incompatible housing does not deter neighborhoods.
• Mortgage Rates. Mortgage rates play a crucial part in housing affordability. Lower mort-
gage rates result in a lower monthly mortgage payment and buyers receiving more home
for their dollar. Rising interest rates often require homebuyers to raise their down payment
in order to maintain the same housing costs. Mortgage rates have stayed at historic lows
for most of the past decade trending under 4.5% (30-year fixed) since around 2010. At the
on-set of the COVID-19 pandemic, rates plummeted to at or near an all-time low under 3%
for part of 2020 and most of 2021. However, due to a 40-year high inflation the Federal Re-
serve began hiking rates in 2022 to slow the economy and curtail inflation. The Federal Re-
serve has implemented five rate hikes to date in 2022 and is expected to be aggressive
throughout the end of year into 2023. As a result, the cost of for -sale housing has increased
significantly this year and many would-be-buyers are on the sidelines and have been priced
out of the market. Compared to early 2022, mortgage payments in the Fall of 2022 are on
average about 60% higher than the beginning of 2022 (3.25% vs. 6.75%). As a result, afford-
ability has been crushed and a housing market reset is in play.
The following charts illustrates historical mortgage rate averages as compiled by Freddie
Mac. The Freddie Mac Market Survey (PMMS) has been tracking mortgage rates since 1972
and is the most relied upon benchmark for evaluating mortgage interest market conditions.
The Freddie Mac survey is based on 30-year mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 170
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%1972747678198082848688199092949698200002040608201012141618202022Historic 30-year Mortgage Rates 1972 to 2023 YTD
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2022 to 2023 YTD
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
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• Short-Term Stay Housing. The short-term stay housing market continues to gain ground;
in-part from pandemic and for households desiring temporary housing accommodations.
Establishments range from hotels, suites, apartments, townhomes, or single-family homes,
etc. Many of these furnished units offer weekly and monthly rates that have flexible rental
agreements. There has been a growing preference for non -traditional lodging choices as
companies such as VRBO, Airbnb, Stay Alfred, Sonder and others make a splash into the
rental and hospitality sector. Many apartment owners are entertaining relationships with
short-term stay companies as an avenue to lock-up long-term leases with a short-term op-
erator. Maxfield Research recommends addressing local zoning codes to monitor future
multifamily concepts that may include short-term and long-term stay leases.
• Single-Family Rental Housing Demand. Table HC-3 showed that 24% of the rental housing
inventory in Lakeville in 2020 is within single-unit housing structures. Another 33% of units
were located within an attached structure such a townhome or condo. Nationwide, it is es-
timate that 25 of the 43 million rental households in the United States (58%) reside in either
single-family rentals, townhomes, duplexes, triplexes and quads. Single-family units, town-
homes, and condos make-up about 34% of all rental units in the country and about 23% in
the Twin Cities Metro Area.
A recent study by Freddie Mac identified the market share of single-family rentals
(“SFR”) by ownership type across the country. The study found that 88% of SFR are owned
by investors with between 1 and 10 homes. Institutional investors make-up only 1% of the
market share today; even though they are they have the financial backing and are able to
acquire larger portfolios.
Demand is strong for SFR by providing renter lifestyle choice and the ability to reside in a
detached unit without having to obtain the funds for a down payment on a mortgage.
Many SF renters may consider purchasing; however, the rising costs of real estate and the
down payment requirements hinder some renters from making the leap to home owner-
ship. The COVID-19 pandemic increased demand for SFR as renters desire more square
footage, green space/yards, separate entrances, and more privacy than traditional multi-
family structures.
Single-family rental communities have been one of the hottest real estate pr oducts to come
out of the pandemic over the past few years. Although the Twin Cities is behind the rest of
the country, there are several developments in the pipeline or that have recently been com-
pleted in the Twin Cities. We recommend exploring purpose-built single-family rental com-
munities in the City of Lakeville and zoning codes that permit the project concept.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 172
• Starter Home New Construction Lack of Inventory. As illustrated earlier in the report and
from feedback from Realtors, Lakeville lacks entry-level/starter home new construction
housing. However, Lakeville is not alone as according to Housing First Minnesota the me-
dian price for a new construction home in the Twin Cities is nearly $525,000 which is the
10th highest in the U.S. In fact, outside of coastal markets, Minnesota has the highest new
construction costs in the U.S. According to Metrostudy, only 2% of all new homes con-
structed in the Twin Cities in 2022 were constructed for less than $300,000. There are nu-
merous reasons why housing costs for new construction are high in Minnesota, including:
land costs, MUSA line mandates, regulatory fees, strict building code, safety codes, zoning
minimums, park dedication/impact fees, high cost of materials and labor, etc. Given all
these factors, Minnesota new construction is high. The ability to construct new affordably
priced new homes will require public/private partnerships and creativity. The following is a
sample list of some tools to enhance the probability of bringing down costs:
o Zoning/density modifications,
o Reduction of permit/impact fees
o Building code changes
o Fast tracking permitting
o Tax abatement/TIF
o Housing trusts, land trusts
o Opportunity zone incentives
o ADU, Multi-Gen, Tiny homes,
• Zoning/Density Requirements. One way a jurisdiction can reduce infrastructure costs is
through the implementation of flexible zoning requirements. Many communities incorpo-
rate Planned Unit Developments (PUD) into their zoning code that allows developers some
flexibility from the zoning code in exchange for fulfilling an established set of p lanning crite-
ria. Because infrastructure costs are one of the key barriers for housing development, PUDs
allow more efficient site design and lower infrastructure costs, translating into lower per -
unit housing costs compared to a traditional single-family subdivision. We recommend ex-
ploring strategies and policies that encourage flexible single-family regulations
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Definitions
Absorption Period – The period of time necessary for newly constructed or renovated proper-
ties to achieve the stabilized level of occupancy. The absorption period begins when the first
certificate of occupancy is issued and ends when the last unit to reach the stabilized lev el of oc-
cupancy has signed a lease.
Absorption Rate – The average number of units rented each month during the absorption pe-
riod.
Active Adult (or independent living without services available) – Active Adult properties are
similar to a general-occupancy apartment building, in that they offer virtually no services but
have age-restrictions (typically 55 or 62 or older). Organized activities and occasionally a trans-
portation program are usually all that are available at these properties. Because of the lack of
services, active adult properties typically do not command the rent premiums of more service -
enriched senior housing.
Adjusted Gross Income “AGI” – Income from taxable sources (including wages, interest, capital
gains, income from retirement accounts, etc.) adjusted to account for specific deductions (i.e.
contributions to retirement accounts, unreimbursed business and medical expenses, alimony,
etc.).
Affordable Housing – The general definition of affordability is for a household to pay no more
than 30% of their income for housing. For purposes of this study we define affordable housing
that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 80% AMI, though individual proper-
ties can have income-restrictions set at 40%, 50%, 60% or 80% AMI. Rent is not based on in-
come but instead is a contract amount that is affordable to households within the specific in-
come restriction segment. It is essentially housing affordable to low or very low-income ten-
ants.
Amenity – Tangible or intangible benefits offered to a tenant in the form of common area
amenities or in-unit amenities. Typical in-unit amenities include dishwashers, washer/dryers,
walk-in showers and closets and upgraded kitchen finishes. Typical common area amenities in-
clude detached or attached garage parking, community room, fitness center and an outdoor pa-
tio or grill/picnic area.
Area Median Income “AMI” – AMI is the midpoint in the income distribution within a specific
geographic area. By definition, 50% of households earn less than the median income and 50%
earn more. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) calculates AMI an-
nually and adjustments are made for family size.
Assisted Living – Assisted Living properties come in a variety of forms, but the target market for
most is generally the same: very frail seniors, typically age 80 or older (but can be much
younger, depending on their particular health situation), who are in need of extensive support
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 175
services and personal care assistance. Absent an assisted living option, these seniors would
otherwise need to move to a nursing facility. At a minimum, assisted living properties include
two meals per day and weekly housekeeping in the monthly fee, with the availability of a third
meal and personal care (either included in the monthly fee or for an additional cost). Assisted
living properties also have either staff on duty 24 hours per day or at least 24 -hour emergency
response.
Building Permit – Building permits track housing starts, and the number of housing units au-
thorized to be built by the local governing authority. Most jurisdictions require building permits
for new construction, major renovations, as well as other building improvements. Building per-
mits ensure that all the work meets applicable building a nd safety rules and is typically required
to be completed by a licensed professional. Once the building is complete and meets the in-
spector’s satisfaction, the jurisdiction will issue a “CO” or “Certificate of Occupancy.” Building
permits are a key barometer for the health of the housing market and are often a leading indi-
cator in the rest of the economy as it has a major impact on consumer spending.
Capture Rate – The percentage of age, size, and income-qualified renter households in a given
area or “Market Area” that the property must capture to fill the units. The capture rate is cal-
culated by dividing the total number of units at the property by the total number of age, size
and income-qualified renter households in the designated area.
Comparable Property – A property that is representative of the rental housing choices of the
designated area or “Market Area” that is similar in construction, size, amenities, location and/or
age.
Concession – Discount or incentives given to a prospective tenant to induce signature of a
lease. Concessions typically are in the form of reduced rent or free rent for a specific lease
term, or free amenities, which are normally charged separately, such as parking.
Congregate (or independent living with services avail able) – Congregate properties offer sup-
port services such as meals and/or housekeeping, either on an optional basis or a limited
amount included in the rents. These properties typically dedicate a larger share of the overall
building area to common areas, in part, because the units are smaller than in adult housing and
in part to encourage socialization among residents. Congregate properties attract a slightly
older target market than adult housing, typically seniors age 75 or older. Rents are also above
those of the active adult buildings, even excluding the services.
Contract Rent – The actual monthly rent payable by the tenant, including any rent subsidy paid
on behalf of the tenant, to the owner, inclusive of all terms of the lease.
Demand – The total number of households that would potentially move into a proposed new or
renovated housing project. These households must be of appropriate age, income, tenure and
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 176
size for a specific proposed development. Components vary and can include, but are not lim-
ited to turnover, people living in substandard conditions, rent over-burdened households, in-
come-qualified households and age of householder. Demand is project specific.
Density – Number of units in a given area. Density is typically measured in dwelling units (DU)
per acre – the larger the number of units permitted per acre the higher the density; the fewer
units permitted results in lower density. Density is often presented in a gross and net format:
Gross Density – The number of dwelling units per acre based on the gross site acreage.
Gross Density = Total residential units/total development area
Net Density - The number of dwelling units per acre located on the site, but excludes
public right-of-ways (ROW) such as streets, alleys, easements, open spaces, etc.
Net Density = Total residential units/total residential land area (excluding ROWs)
Detached Housing – a freestanding dwelling unit, most often single-family homes, situated on
its own lot.
Effective Rents – Contract rent less applicable concessions.
Elderly or Senior Housing – Housing where all the units in the property are restricted for occu-
pancy by persons age 62 years or better, or at least 80% of the units in each building are re-
stricted for occupancy by households where at least one household member is 55 years of age
or better and the housing is designed with amenities, facilities and services to meet the needs
of senior citizens.
Extremely Low-Income – Person or household with incomes below 30% of Area Median In-
come, adjusted for respective household size.
Fair Market Rent – Estimates established by HUD of the Gross Rents needed to obtain modest
rental units in acceptable conditions in a specific geographic area. The amount of rental income
a given property would command if it were open for leasing at any given moment and/or the
amount derived based on market conditions that is needed to pay gross monthly rent at mod-
est rental housing in a given area. This figure is used as a basis for determining the payment
standard amount used to calculate the maximum monthly subsidy for families on at financially
assisted housing.
Fair Market Rent
Dakota County - 2022
EFF 1BR 2BR 3BR 4BR
$932 $1,078 $1,329 $1,841 $2,145Rent
Fair Market Rent
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Floor Area Ratio (FAR) Ratio of the floor area of a building to area of the lot on which the build-
ing is located.
Foreclosure – A legal process in which a lender or financial institute attempts to recover the
balance of a loan from a borrower who has stopped making payments to the lender by using
the sale of the house as collateral for the loan.
Gross Rent – The monthly housing cost to a tenant which equals the Contract Rent provided for
in the lease, plus the estimated cost of all utilities paid by tenants. Maximum Gross Rents are
shown in the figure below.
Gross Rent
Dakota County – 2022
Household – All persons who occupy a housing unit, including occupants of a single-family, one
person living alone, two or more families living together, or any other group of related or unre-
lated persons who share living arrangements.
Household Trends – Changes in the number of households for any particular areas over a
measurable period of time, which is a function of new household formations, changes in aver-
age household size, and net migration.
Housing Choice Voucher Program – The federal government's major program for assisting very
low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled to afford decent, safe, and sanitary housing
in the private market. A family that is issued a housing voucher is responsible for finding a suit-
able housing unit of the family's choice where the owner agrees to rent under the program.
Housing choice vouchers are administered locally by public housing agencies. They receive fed-
eral funds from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) to administer
the voucher program. A housing subsidy is paid to the landlord directly by the public housing
agency on behalf of the participating family. The family then pays the difference between the
actual rent charged by the landlord and the amount subsidized by the program.
Housing Unit – House, apartment, mobile home, or group of rooms used as a separate living
quarters by a single household.
30%40%50%60%70%80%100%120%
EFF $616 $822 $1,027 $1,233 $1,438 $1,644 $2,055 $2,466
1BR $660 $880 $1,100 $1,320 $1,540 $1,761 $2,201 $2,641
2BR $792 $1,056 $1,320 $1,584 $1,848 $2,112 $2,640 $3,168
3BR $915 $1,220 $1,525 $1,830 $2,135 $2,440 $3,050 $3,660
4BR $1,020 $1,361 $1,701 $2,041 $2,381 $2,722 $3,402 $4,083
Maximum Gross Rent
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HUD Project-Based Section 8 – A federal government program that provides rental housing for
very low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled in privately owned and managed rental
units. The owner reserves some or all of the units in a building in return for a Federal govern-
ment guarantee to make up the difference between the tenant's contribution and the rent. A
tenant who leaves a subsidized project will lose access to the project -based subsidy.
HUD Section 202 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat-
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy by elder household who
have incomes not exceeding 50% of Area Median Income.
HUD Section 811 Program – Federal program that provides direct capital assistance and operat-
ing or rental assistance to finance housing designed for occupancy of persons with disabilities
who have incomes not exceeding 50% Area Median Income.
HUD Section 236 Program – Federal program that provides interest reduction payments for
loans which finance housing targeted to households with income not exceeding 80% Area Me-
dian Income who pay rent equal to the greater or market rate or 30% of their adjusted income.
Income Limits – Maximum household income by a designed geographic area, adjusted for
household size and expressed as a percentage of the Area Median Income, for the purpose of
establishing an upper limit for eligibility for a specific housing program. See income -qualifica-
tions.
Inflow/Outflow – The Inflow/Outflow Analysis generates results showing the count and charac-
teristics of worker flows in to, out of, and within the defined geographic area.
Low-Income – Person or household with gross household incomes below 80% of Area Median
Income, adjusted for household size.
Low-Income Housing Tax Credit – A program aimed to generate equity for investment in af-
fordable rental housing authorized pursuant to Section 42 of the Internal Revenue Code. The
program requires that a certain percentage of units built be restricted for occupancy to house-
holds earning 60% or less of Area Median Income, and rents on these units be restricted ac-
cordingly.
Market Analysis – The study of real estate market conditions for a specific type of property, ge-
ographic area or proposed (re)development.
Market Rent – The rent that an apartment, without rent or income restrictions or rent subsi-
dies, would command in a given area or “Market Area” considering its location, features and
amenities.
Market Study – A comprehensive study of a specific proposal including a review of the housing
market in a defined market or geography. Project specific market studies are often used by de-
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 179
velopers, property managers or government entities to determine the appropria teness of a pro-
posed development, whereas market specific market studies are used to determine what hous-
ing needs, if any, existing within a specific geography.
Market Rate Rental Housing – Housing that does not have any income-restrictions. Some
properties will have income guidelines, which are minimum annual incomes required in order
to reside at the property.
Memory Care – Memory Care properties, designed specifically for persons suffering from Alz-
heimer’s disease or other dementias, is one of the newest trends in senior housing. Properties
consist mostly of suite-style or studio units or occasionally one-bedroom apartment-style units,
and large amounts of communal areas for activities and programming. In addition, staff typi-
cally undergoes specialized training in the care of this population. Because of the greater
amount of individualized personal care required by residents, staffing ratios are much higher
than traditional assisted living and thus, the costs of care are also higher. Unlike conventional
assisted living, however, which deals almost exclusively with widows or widowers, a higher pro-
portion of persons afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease are in two -person households. That
means the decision to move a spouse into a memory care facility involves the caregiver’s con-
cern of incurring the costs of health care at a special facility while continuing to maintain their
home.
Migration – The movement of households and/or people into or out of an area.
Mixed-Income Property – An apartment property contained either both income-restricted and
unrestricted units or units restricted at two or more income limits.
Mobility – The ease at which people move from one location to another. Mobility rate is often
illustrated over a one-year time frame.
Moderate Income – Person or household with gross household income between 80% and 120%
of the Area Median Income, adjusted for household size.
Multifamily – Properties and structures that contain more than two housing units.
Naturally Occurring Affordable Housing – Although affordable housing is typically associated
with an income-restricted property, there are other housing units in communities that indi-
rectly provide affordable housing. Housing units that were not developed or designated with
income guidelines (i.e. assisted) yet are more affordable than other units in a community are
considered “naturally-occurring” or “unsubsidized affordable” units. This rental supply is avail-
able through the private market, versus assisted housing programs through various governmen-
tal agencies. Property values on these units are lower based on a combination of factors, such
as: age of structure/housing stock, location, condition, size, functionally obsolete, school dis-
trict, etc.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 180
Net Income – Income earned after payroll withholdings such as state and federal income taxes,
social security, as well as retirement savings and health insurance.
Net Worth – The difference between assets and liabilities, or the total value of assets after the
debt is subtracted.
Pent-Up Demand – A market in which there is a scarcity of supply and as such, vacancy rates
are very low or non-existent.
Population – All people living in a geographic area.
Population Density – The population of an area divided by the number of square miles of land
area.
Population Trends – Changes in population levels for a particular geographic area over a spe-
cific period of time – a function of the level of births, deaths, and in/out migration.
Project-Based Rent Assistance – Rental assistance from any source that is allocated to the
property or a specific number of units in the property and is available to each income eligible
tenant of the property or an assisted unit.
Redevelopment – The redesign, rehabilitation or expansion of existing properties.
Rent Burden – Gross rent divided by adjusted monthly household income.
Restricted Rent – The rent charged under the restriction of a specific housing program or sub-
sidy.
Saturation – The point at which there is no longer demand to support additional market rate,
affordable/subsidized, rental, for-sale, or senior housing units. Saturation usually refers to a
particular segment of a specific market.
Senior Housing – The term “senior housing” refers to any housing development that is re-
stricted to people age 55 or older. Today, senior housing includes an entire spectrum of hous-
ing alternatives. Maxfield Research Consulting, LLC. classifies senior housing into four catego-
ries based on the level of support services. The four categories are: Active Adult, Congregate,
Assisted Living and Memory Care.
Short Sale – A sale of real estate in which the net proceeds from selling the property do not
cover the sellers’ mortgage obligations. The difference is forgiven by the lender, or other ar-
rangements are made with the lender to settle the remainder of the debt.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 181
Single-Family Home – A dwelling unit, either attached or detached, designed for use by one
household and with direct street access. It does not share heating facilities or other essential
electrical, mechanical or building facilities with another dwelling.
Stabilized Level of Occupancy – The underwritten or actual number of occupied units that a
property is expected to maintain after the initial lease-up period.
Subsidized Housing – Housing that is income-restricted to households earning at or below 30%
AMI. Rent is generally based on income, with the household contributing 30% of their adjusted
gross income toward rent. Also referred to as extremely low-income housing.
Subsidy – Monthly income received by a tenant or by an owner on behalf of a tenant to pay the
difference between the apartment’s contract/market rate rent and the amount paid by the ten-
ant toward rent.
Substandard Conditions – Housing conditions that are conventionally considered unacceptable
and can be defined in terms of lacking plumbing facilities, one or more major mechanical or
electrical system malfunctions, or overcrowded conditions.
Target Population – The market segment or segments of the given population a development
would appeal or cater to.
Tenant – One who rents real property from another individual or rental company.
Tenant-Paid Utilities – The cost of utilities, excluding cable, telephone, or internet necessary for
the habitation of a dwelling unit, which are paid by said tenant.
Tenure – The distinction between owner-occupied and renter-occupied housing units.
Turnover – A measure of movement of residents into and out of a geographic location.
Turnover Period – An estimate of the number of housing units in a geographic location as a per-
centage of the total house units that will likely change occupants in any one year.
Unrestricted Units – Units that are not subject to any income or rent restrictions.
Vacancy Period – The amount of time an apartment remains vacant and is available on the
market for rent.
Workforce Housing – Housing that is income-restricted to households earning between 80%
and 120% AMI; however, some government agencies define workforce housing from 50% to
120% AMI. Also referred to as moderate-income housing.
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MAXFIELD RESEARCH AND CONSULTING, LLC 182
Zoning – Classification and regulation of land use by local governments according to use catego-
ries (zones); often also includes density designations and limitations.