HomeMy WebLinkAbout04-28-2025
AGENDA
CITY COUNCIL WORK SESSION
April 28, 2025 - 7:00 PM
Lakeville City Hall, Marion Conference Room
Members of the public can participate in person at Lakeville City Hall, Marion Conference Room. Members of the public may join
the meeting via Teams Meeting, Meeting ID: 276 485 596 886 or by calling Toll Number 1-323-433-2142; Conference ID: 432
130 403#. The mayor will allow for public comments and questions at the appropriate time.
The City Council is provided background information for agenda items in advance by staff and appointed commissions,
committees, and boards. Decisions are based on this information, as well as City policy, practices, input from constituents, and a
council member’s personal judgment.
1. Call to order, moment of silence and flag pledge
2. Citizen Comments
3. Discussion Items
45 minutes a. Presentation of the 2024 Dakota County Housing Needs
Assessment
Tina Goodroad
25 minutes b. 2025-2026 City of Lakeville Hunting Map Joe Masiarchin
20 minutes c. FiRST Center Membership Plan Allyn Kuennen, Brad
Paulson, Jeff Hanson
4. Items for Future Discussion
5. Committee/ City Administrator Updates
6. Adjourn
Page 1 of 43
Date: 4/28/2025
Presentation of the 2024 Dakota County Housing Needs Assessment
Proposed Action
No action required
Overview
The Dakota County CDA contracted with Bowen National Research to conduct a 2024 Dakota
County Housing Needs Assessment. Patrick Bowen will present an overview of the study and
discuss the City of Lakeville Overview.
Supporting Information
1. Lakeville
Financial Impact: $0 Budgeted: No Source:
Envision Lakeville Community Values: A Home for All Ages and Stages of Life
Report Completed by: Tina Goodroad, Community Development Director
Page 2 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-1
ADDENDUM J: CITY OF LAKEVILLE OVERVIEW
While the primary focus of this Housing Needs Assessment is on the entirety of the
Primary Study Area, or PSA (Dakota County), this section of the report includes an
overview of demographic, economic, and housing metrics specific to the city of Lakeville.
To provide a base of comparison, various metrics of Lakeville were compared with the
entirety of Dakota County and statewide numbers.
The analyses on the following pages provide overviews of key demographic and economic
data, summaries of the multifamily rental market and for-sale housing supply, and general
conclusions on the housing needs of the area. It is important to note that the demographic
projections included in this section assume no significant government policies, programs
or incentives are enacted that would drastically alter residential development or economic
activity. Note that some topics presented in this analysis, particularly migration and
economic data, may be limited to county-based metrics due to the availability of data.
A. INTRODUCTION
Lakeville is located in the western portion of Dakota County, approximately 25 miles
south of Minneapolis. Lakeville contains approximately 37 square miles and has an
estimated population of 76,476 in 2024. Interstate 35 provides north/south access
throughout Lakeville and access to nearby metropolitan centers.
The following map illustrates the city of Lakeville.
Page 3 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-2
B. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
This section of the report evaluates key demographic characteristics for Lakeville.
Demographic comparisons provide insights into the human composition of housing
markets. It should be noted that some total numbers and percentages may not match
the totals within or between tables/graphs in this section due to rounding.
The following graphs illustrate total population by year for Lakeville and the
projected population changes between 2024 and 2029 for each of the study areas.
Source: 2010, 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2010, 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
The population in Lakeville increased by 13,521 (24.2%) between 2010 and 2020.
This represents a significantly larger percentage increase as compared to the county
(10.4%) and state (7.6%) during this time period. Between 2020 and 2024, the
population in Lakeville increased by 10.1%. The population within the city is
projected to increase by 9.1% over the next five years. The projected population
increase in Lakeville between 2024 and 2029 is expected to significantly outpace
population increases in the county and state during this time period.
55,969
69,490 76,476 83,427
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2010 2020 2024 2029
Total Population by Year -Lakeville
24.2%
10.1%9.1%10.4%
3.2%2.8%
7.6%
2.1%2.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2010-2020 2020-2024 2024-2029
Population Percent Change (2010-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 4 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-3
The following graph illustrates the population density for each study area in 2024.
Source: 2010, 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
With a population density of 2,071.7 persons per square mile, Lakeville is significantly
more densely populated than Dakota County and the state of Minnesota.
The following graph illustrates select population characteristics that typically
influence housing affordability for each of the study areas. Note that data included
within the graph is derived from the 2018-2022 American Community Survey, which
is the most recent time period available for this source.
Source: 2018-2022 American Community Survey; ESRI; Bowen National Research
As the data illustrates, Lakeville has a lower share of unmarried population (38.1%),
a lower share of the population without a high school diploma (3.1%), and a higher
share of individuals with a college degree (63.1%) compared to the county and state.
The two educational attainment factors likely have a positive influence on housing
affordability in the city. Overall, Lakeville has lower poverty rates for the population
less than 18 years of age (3.9%) and the overall population (3.8%) when compared to
the county and state.
2,071.7
806.9 73.2
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
2024 Density
Persons per Square Mile2024 Population Density by Area
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
38.1%3.1%63.1%3.9%3.8%44.3%4.4%55.9%7.0%5.6%48.0%6.3%49.9%10.9%9.3%0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Unmarried Population No High School
Diploma
College Degree < 18 Years Below
Poverty Level
Overall Below Poverty
Level
Select Population Characteristics by Area (2022)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 5 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-4
The following graphs illustrate the number of total households in Lakeville by year
and the projected percent changes in households between 2024 and 2029 for each of
the study areas.
Source: 2010, 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2010, 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
The number of households in Lakeville increased by 4,578 (24.5%) between 2010 and
2020. This represents a significantly larger percentage increase as compared to the
county (10.5%) and state (8.0%) during this time period. Between 2020 and 2024, the
number of households in Lakeville increased by 11.3%. It is projected that the number
of households in Lakeville will increase by 9.9% over the next five years, an increase
which will outpace projections for the county and state. While household growth can
heavily influence the total housing needs of a market, factors such as households living
in substandard or cost-burdened housing, people commuting into the area for work,
pent-up demand, and availability of existing housing all affect housing needs. These
factors are addressed throughout this overview.
18,687
23,265
25,885
28,441
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2010 2020 2024 2029
Total Households by Year -Lakeville
24.5%
11.3%9.9%10.5%
3.5%3.3%
8.0%
2.5%2.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2010-2020 2020-2024 2024-2029
Households Percent Change (2010-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 6 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-5
The following graphs compare the share of household heads by age for each of the
study areas in 2024 and the projected percent change in household heads by age cohort
between 2024 and 2029.
Source: ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: ESRI; Bowen National Research
Overall, the data shows that Lakeville households in 2024 are more heavily
concentrated among the middle-aged cohort (35 to 54 years) when compared to
Dakota County and the state of Minnesota. While households aged 65 and older are
projected to increase significantly in the city over the next five years, notable increases
are also projected among households between the ages of 25 and 34 (19.4%) and
between the ages of 45 and 54 (12.5%). Positive household growth is also projected
among those under the age of 25. Note that the positive household growth among
younger households (under age 35) in the city contrasts with the projections for these
age groups in the county and state.
13.7%
46.1%
40.2%
16.3%
38.7%
45.0%
19.0%
34.9%
46.1%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
<35 35 to 54 55+
Distribution of Household Heads by Age (2024)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
6.5%19.4%-1.5%12.5%-3.9%23.6%35.9%-1.5%0.0%-1.5%6.1%-8.8%9.3%25.0%-3.6%-1.0%0.0%5.6%-9.1%6.5%20.9%-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
45.0%
<25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+Percent ChangeAge Cohort
Projected Percent Change in Household Heads by Age (2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 7 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-6
The following graphs compare the share of households by tenure (renters and owners)
for 2024 and the projected percent change in households by tenure between 2024 and
2029 for each of the study areas.
Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
In 2024, the distribution of households by tenure in Lakeville (84.7% owners and
15.3% renters) is heavily weighted toward owner households when compared to the
county and state. Over the next five years, it is projected that the number of owner
households in Lakeville will increase by 9.8%, while the number of renter households
will increase by 10.3%. This is a higher projected increase in owner and renter
households when compared to the county and state. It is important to understand that
housing demand is influenced by a variety of factors, which may include existing pent-
up demand, substandard housing, housing cost burden, and/or other factors. The
increase among owner and renter households in Lakeville will likely contribute to an
increase in demand within the for-sale and rental housing markets over the next five
years.
84.7%
73.0%
69.8%
15.3%
27.0%
30.2%
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%
Lakeville
Dakota County
Minnesota
Households by Tenure (2024)
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied
9.8%10.3%
3.9%
1.8%
3.3%
1.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied
Projected Percent Change in Households by Tenure (2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 8 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-7
The following compares the median household income for each of the study areas
from 2020 to 2029.
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
As the preceding illustrates, the 2024 median household income in Lakeville
($127,558) is 24.7% higher than the countywide median household income and 47.0%
higher than the statewide median household income. Over the next five years, it is
projected that the median household income in Lakeville will increase to $145,399, or
an increase of 14.0%. As such, the median household income in Lakeville will remain
well above that of the county ($113,606) and state ($100,422).
The following graphs compare renter households by income for 2024 and the
projected percent change in renter households by income between 2024 and 2029 for
each of the study areas.
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research $113,723 $127,558 $145,399 $88,904 $102,310 $113,606 $74,093 $86,801 $100,422 $0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
2020 2024 2029
Median Household Income by Year
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
17.1%
19.2%
26.3%
30.9%
22.9%
23.6%
27.6%
34.6%
30.3%
24.3%
23.3%
19.8%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Lakeville
Dakota County
Minnesota
2024 Distribution of Renter Households by Income
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
Page 9 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-8
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
In 2024, renter households earning between $25,000 and $49,999 account for the
largest share (30.9%) of the total renter households in Lakeville, while those earning
between $50,000 and $99,999 comprise the next largest share (27.6%). Overall,
Lakeville has a comparably greater concentration of renter households earning
between $25,000 and $49,999 and $100,000 or higher when compared to the county
and state. Between 2024 and 2029, renter households earning $100,000 or higher in
Lakeville are projected to increase by 47.6%, which is a significantly larger increase
compared to the county and state. While renter households earning between $50,000
and $99,999 are projected to increase by 7.2%, renter households earning less than
$50,000 are projected to decrease during this time period. Despite the projected
decline in lower income renter households, it is expected that a significant share of
renter households in Lakeville will continue to earn less than $50,000 during the next
five years.
-3.5%-8.4%
7.2%
47.6%
-10.0%-11.4%
-0.1%
26.9%
-8.8%-10.0%
0.8%
28.2%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
Percent Change in Renter Households by Income (2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 10 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-9
The following graphs compare owner households by income for 2024 and the
projected percent change in owner households by income between 2024 and 2029 for
each of the study areas.
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
In 2024, 71.6% of Lakeville owner households earn $100,000 or more, which is a
higher share compared to Dakota County (61.9%) and the state of Minnesota (54.1%).
Between 2024 and 2029, owner household growth is projected among households
earning $100,000 or higher (19.1%), while those earning less than $100,000 are
projected to decrease. This is consistent with county and statewide projections for this
time period. 2.7%4.0%6.4%5.0%8.8%
11.2%
20.7%
25.2%
28.3%
71.6%
61.9%
54.1%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Lakeville
Dakota County
Minnesota
2024 Distribution of Owner Households by Income
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
-22.4%
-26.7%
-9.4%
19.1%
-22.4%-21.3%
-9.3%
14.5%
-21.1%-18.7%
-7.3%
16.2%
-35.0%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
Percent Change in Owner Households by Income (2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 11 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-10
The following graphs compare senior renter households (age 62 and older) by
income for 2024 and the projected percent change in senior renter households by
income between 2024 and 2029 for each of the study areas.
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
In 2024, the largest share of senior renter households (age 62 and older) in Lakeville
earns between $25,000 and $49,999 (33.2%), followed by those earning between
$50,000 and $99,999 (25.8%). Note that senior renter households earning $100,000
and higher account for only 18.7% of all senior renter households in the city. However,
senior renter households in Lakeville earning $100,000 are projected to increase by
61.5% over the next five years. In addition, senior renter households earning between
$50,000 and $99,999 are projected to increase by 14.5%. While senior renter
22.2%
23.6%
30.8%
33.2%
24.0%
23.9%
25.8%
32.6%
27.6%
18.7%
19.7%
17.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Lakeville
Dakota County
Minnesota
2024 Distribution of Senior Renter Households (Age 62+) by
Income
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
4.1%
-1.7%
14.5%
61.5%
1.8%0.2%
13.4%
46.5%
-0.8%-2.3%
9.7%
40.2%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
Percent Change in Senior Renter Households (Age 62+) by
Income (2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 12 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-11
households earning between $25,000 and $49,999 are projected to decline in Lakeville
between 2024 and 2029, it is expected that this income range will continue to represent
a significant share of overall senior renter households in the city.
The following graphs compare senior owner households (age 62 and older) by
income for 2024 and the projected percent change in senior owner households by
income between 2024 and 2029 for each of the study areas.
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Source: 2020 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
3.1%4.5%6.9%5.3%9.3%
11.6%
21.6%
26.1%
28.5%
69.9%
60.0%
52.9%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
Lakeville
Dakota County
Minnesota
2024 Distribution of Senior Owner Households (Age 62+) by Income
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
-13.1%
-19.4%
0.3%
32.2%
-16.1%-15.7%
-2.2%
23.9%
-16.4%-14.0%
-1.8%
23.3%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Less Than $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $99,999 $100,000 & Higher
Percent Change in Senior Owner Households (Age 62+) by Income
(2024-2029)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 13 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-12
In 2024, 69.9% of senior owner households (age 62 and older) in Lakeville earn
$100,000 or more, while 21.6% of senior owner households earn between $50,000 and
$99,999. Over the next five years, senior owner households in Lakeville earning
$100,000 or more are projected to increase by 32.2%, while minimal growth (0.3%)
is projected for senior owner households earning between $50,000 and $99,999 during
this period. The projected growth among the highest income cohort and decline among
the lower income cohorts in Lakeville is consistent with county and statewide
projections between 2024 and 2029.
The following table illustrates the components of population change for Dakota
County between April 2010 and July 2023. Note that components of change data is
only available at the county level or higher.
Estimated Components of Population Change by County for the PSA (Dakota County)
April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2023
Years
Population
Change*
Percent
Change
Natural
Change
Net
Domestic
Migration
Net
International
Migration
Total
Net
Migration
Dakota County 2010-2020 33,225 8.3% 27,991 -1,115 6,511 5,396
2020-2023 7,562 1.7% 5,686 -928 2,430 1,502
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, June 2024
*Includes residuals of (-162 and 374) representing the change that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component
Based on the preceding data, the population growth within Dakota County between
2010 and 2023 is primarily the result of natural change (more births than deaths) and
noteworthy international migration. While this data is not specific to Lakeville, it is
reasonable to conclude that the components of population change for Dakota County
likely have a significant influence on each of the geographies located within the
county.
Page 14 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-13
The following graphs illustrate the distribution of in-migrants by age and by income
for each study area from 2018 to 2022. Note that the data illustrated in both graphs is
based on population, not households.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 5-Year ACS Estimates (S0701); Bowen National Research
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 5-Year American Community Survey (B07010); Bowen National Research
*Excludes population with no income
As the preceding data illustrates, the largest share (53.9%) of in-migrants to Lakeville
are less than 35 years of age. Despite this cohort representing the majority of in-
migrants, Lakeville receives proportionally greater shares of in-migrants aged 35 or
older when compared to Dakota County and the state. While the distribution of in-
migrants by income in Lakeville is more heavily weighted toward individuals earning
$50,000 or more (42.6%), the data illustrates that notable shares of in-migrants earn
less than $25,000 (29.5%) and between $25,000 and $49,999 (27.9%).
53.9%
23.0%23.1%
66.2%
20.3%
13.5%
67.0%
19.2%
13.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
1 to 34 Years 35 to 54 Years 55+ Years
Share of In-Migrants by Age (2018-2022)
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
29.5%27.9%
42.6%
29.8%28.0%
42.2%41.1%
25.3%
33.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
<$25,000 $25,000-$49,999 $50,000+
In-Migrants by Income (2018-2022)*
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 15 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-14
C. ECONOMY AND WORKFORCE ANALYSIS
Labor Force
The following table illustrates the employment base by industry for Lakeville, Dakota
County, and the state of Minnesota. The top five industries by share of employment
for each area are highlighted in red text. Note that several metrics within this section
are limited to county data and are not provided at the city level.
Employment by Industry
NAICS Group
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Employees Percent Employees Percent Employees Percent
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting 25 0.1% 387 0.2% 17,215 0.5%
Mining 0 0.0% 73 0.0% 4,549 0.1%
Utilities 12 0.1% 568 0.3% 12,777 0.4%
Construction 1,029 4.9% 10,298 5.0% 137,789 4.2%
Manufacturing 2,593 12.5% 22,907 11.1% 342,911 10.3%
Wholesale Trade 872 4.2% 8,221 4.0% 134,193 4.0%
Retail Trade 3,490 16.8% 27,952 13.6% 385,870 11.6%
Transportation & Warehousing 478 2.3% 8,741 4.2% 83,429 2.5%
Information 307 1.5% 9,796 4.8% 88,304 2.7%
Finance & Insurance 893 4.3% 9,626 4.7% 146,490 4.4%
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 582 2.8% 4,877 2.4% 68,105 2.1%
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 1,316 6.3% 14,887 7.2% 245,551 7.4%
Management of Companies & Enterprises 14 0.1% 87 0.0% 6,945 0.2%
Administrative, Support, Waste Management &
Remediation Services 944 4.5% 5,954 2.9% 74,747 2.3%
Educational Services 2,421 11.6% 16,900 8.2% 259,542 7.8%
Health Care & Social Assistance 1,447 7.0% 20,621 10.0% 574,150 17.3%
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 451 2.2% 3,924 1.9% 89,508 2.7%
Accommodation & Food Services 2,040 9.8% 16,542 8.0% 240,661 7.2%
Other Services (Except Public Administration) 1,300 6.2% 12,232 5.9% 204,837 6.2%
Public Administration 545 2.6% 10,454 5.1% 184,476 5.6%
Non-classifiable 57 0.3% 852 0.4% 17,626 0.5%
Total 20,816 100.0% 205,899 100.0% 3,319,675 100.0%
Source: 2010 Census; ESRI; Bowen National Research
Note: Since this survey is conducted of establishments and not of residents, some employees may not live within each market. These employees,
however, are included in our labor force calculations because their places of employment are located within each m arket.
Lakeville has an employment base of over 20,000 individuals within a broad range of
employment sectors. The labor force within the area is based primarily in five sectors:
Retail Trade (16.8%), Manufacturing (12.5%), Educational Services (11.6%),
Accommodation & Food Services (9.8%), and Health Care & Social Assistance
(7.0%). Combined, the top five job sectors represent 57.7% of the city’s employment
base.
Page 16 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-15
Total employment reflects the number of employed persons who live within an area
regardless of where they work. The following illustrates the total employment base
(in thousands) for Dakota County between 2014 and 2024.
Source: Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Through July
As the preceding illustrates, total employment within Dakota County steadily
increased between 2014 and 2019. In 2020, total employment decreased by roughly
3.1%, which can be largely attributed to the economic impact of the COVID-19
pandemic. As of year-end 2023, total employment in Dakota County was at 100.1%
of the 2019 level. It should be noted, however, that total employment decreased
slightly (0.8%) during the first half of 2024.
The following illustrates the annual unemployment rate for Dakota County and the
state of Minnesota from 2014 to 2024.
Source: Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Through July
223.0
225.0
227.0
231.8
234.3
237.2
229.8 229.9
235.8 237.4 235.6
215.0
220.0
225.0
230.0
235.0
240.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*Total Employment (in thousands)Year
Total Employment -Dakota County (2014-2024)3.9%3.4%3.4%3.1%2.6%2.9%6.3%3.5%2.3%2.6%3.0%4.3%3.8%3.9%3.5%3.0%3.3%6.3%3.7%2.6%2.8%3.3%0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*Unemployment RateYear
Annual Unemployment Rate (2014-2024)
Dakota County Minnesota
Page 17 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-16
As the preceding data shows, the unemployment rate in Dakota County declined from
3.9% in 2014 to 2.9% in 2019. After the sharp increase in 2020, the unemployment
rate in the county dropped to 2.3% in 2022. Although the unemployment rate increased
to 2.6% in 2023, this still represents a lower rate as compared to the rate in 2019. It is
also noteworthy that the unemployment rate in the county has been below the state
unemployment rate in nine of the previous 10 years. The lone exception occurred
during 2020, where both the county and state rates were 6.3%.
At-place employment reflects the total number of jobs within the county regardless of
the employee's county of residence. The following illustrates the total at-place
employment base for Dakota County from 2013 to 2023.
Source: Department of Labor; Bureau of Labor Statistics
As the preceding illustrates, at-place employment within Dakota County increased
each year since 2013, with the only exception occurring in 2020. Through 2023, at-
place employment within the county is at 98.3% of the 2019 level. This likely indicates
the county was disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Regardless, at-place
employment increased by 5.8% (approximately 10,300 jobs) in Dakota County
between 2013 and 2023, illustrating an overall positive economic trend for the county
in the last decade.
Economic Outlook
WARN notices were reviewed in September 2024. According to the Minnesota
Department of Employment and Economic Development website, there have been six
WARN notices reported for Dakota County over the past 12 months. These WARN
notices impact a total of 70 jobs within the county, of which none are located within
Lakeville. Overall, the reduction in jobs associated with these notices is relatively
minor given the existing employment base and recent increases in at-place
employment within the county.
177.7
180.3
183.9
187.0 188.3 189.6 191.2
177.8
181.2
185.6
188.0
170.0
175.0
180.0
185.0
190.0
195.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023At-Place Employment (in thousands)Year
At -Place Employment -Dakota County (2013-2023)
Page 18 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-17
According to a representative with the Dakota County Community Development
Agency, the Dakota County economy is steady, has opportunity for growth, and is
capable of redeveloping large corporate campuses.
The following table summarizes recent and/or ongoing economic development
projects identified within Lakeville:
Economic Development Activity - Lakeville
Project Name Investment Job Creation Scope of Work/Details
RL Cold N/A 95
Under Construction: In 2024, broke ground on a 292,000 square -foot
cold storage facility at the Airlake Industrial Park. The facility is expected
to be complete in spring 2025.
Midwest Ear, Nose and
Throat Specialists N/A N/A Under Construction: A 14,000 square-foot facility that is expected to be
complete in early 2025.
Lakeville Logistics Center N/A N/A Completed: A 360,000 square-foot facility was completed in 2024.
N/A - Not available
As the preceding illustrates, two commercial facilities are currently under construction
within Lakeville and a logistics center was recently completed. One of these
properties, a large cold storage facility, is expected to create 95 jobs within the city.
While total investment estimates were not provided for these projects, the investment
in the area will likely have a positive impact on the community and labor market in
the future.
Commuting Data
The ability of a person or household to travel easily, quickly, safely, and affordably
throughout a market influences the desirability of a housing market. In addition, the
individuals commuting into a market from neighboring markets represent a potential
base of support for future residential development.
The following table summarizes two commuting pattern attributes (mode and time)
for Lakeville.
Commuting Attributes - Lakeville, Minnesota
Mode
Drove
Alone Carpooled
Public
Transit Walked
Other
Means
Worked
at Home Total
Number 27,088 2,922 934 256 285 6,664 38,149
Percent 71.0% 7.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 17.5% 100.0%
Time
Less
Than 15
Minutes
15 to 29
Minutes
30 to 44
Minutes
45 to 59
Minutes
60 or
More
Minutes
Worked
at Home Total
Number 7,213 11,669 8,649 2,848 1,106 6,664 38,149
Percent 18.9% 30.6% 22.7% 7.5% 2.9% 17.5% 100.0%
Source: ESRI; Bowen National Research
Page 19 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-18
As the preceding illustrates, 78.7% of individuals in Lakeville utilize their own
vehicles or carpool to work. Overall, nearly one-half (49.5%) of residents have
commute times of less than 30 minutes to their place of employment, with an
additional 17.5% working from home. While the majority of individuals in the area
utilize personal vehicles and nearly one-half of workers have relatively short commute
times (excluding those that work from home), a noteworthy share (2.4%) of residents
rely on public transit as their commuting mode.
The following illustrates the overall commuter flow for Lakeville based on 2021 U.S.
Census Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data.
Lakeville, MN – Inflow/Outflow Job Counts in 2021
Source: U.S. Census, Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES); Bowen National Research
Of the approximately 17,132 persons employed in Lakeville, 75.5% (12,931) originate
from outside the city, while 24.5% (4,201) live within the city. Nearly 32,000 residents
of the city commute to surrounding areas daily for employment. Regardless, the
12,931 non-residents who work in the city represent a substantial base of potential
support for future residential development within Lakeville.
Page 20 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-19
The following compares the distribution of in-commuters by annual income for
Lakeville and Dakota County.
Source: U.S. Census, Longitudinal Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (LODES); Bowen National Research
The preceding shows that the largest share (55.4%) of in-commuters to Lakeville earn
$40,000 or more annually, while 23.1% earn between $15,000 and $40,000. The
remaining share (21.5%) of in-commuters earn less than $15,000 annually. While the
majority of in-commuters earn $40,000 or more, the data indicates there is a slightly
higher proportion of Lakeville in-commuters earning less than $40,000 when
compared to the county. Regardless, a variety of housing types could be developed to
potentially attract some of the 12,931 in-commuters to live within Lakeville.
21.5%23.1%
55.4%
16.7%22.6%
60.7%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
<$15,000 $15,000-$40,000 $40,000+
In-Commuters by Income (2021)
Lakeville Dakota County
Page 21 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-20
D. HOUSING METRICS
The estimated distribution of the area housing stock by occupancy/tenure status for
each study area for 2022 is illustrated in the following table and graph:
Number of Housing Units by Tenure (2022)
Area
Total
Occupied
Owner
Occupied
Renter
Occupied Vacant Total
Lakeville 24,252 21,186 3,066 568 24,820
Dakota County 169,404 128,582 40,822 4,760 174,164
Minnesota 2,256,126 1,631,701 624,425 237,830 2,493,956
Share of Housing Units by Tenure (2022)
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
Of the 24,252 total occupied housing units in Lakeville, 87.4% are owner occupied
and 12.6% are renter occupied. This distribution of occupied units by tenure is
significantly weighted toward owner households compared to the county and state.
Among the 24,820 total housing units in Lakeville, only 2.3% (568 units) are classified
as vacant. The respective shares of vacant units in Lakeville and Dakota County are
significantly lower than the share (9.5%) for the state. It should be noted that vacant
units are comprised of a variety of units including abandoned properties, unoccupied
rentals, for-sale homes, and seasonal housing units.
The following table compares key housing age and conditions based on 2018-2022
American Community Survey data. Housing units built over 50 years ago (pre-1970),
overcrowded housing (1.01+ persons per room), or housing that lacks complete indoor
kitchens or bathroom plumbing are illustrated by tenure. It is important to note that
some occupied housing units may have more than one housing issue.
87.4%
12.6%
2.3%
75.9%
24.1%
2.7%
72.3%
27.7%
9.5%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied Vacant
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 22 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-21
Housing Age and Conditions (2022)
Pre-1970 Product Overcrowded Incomplete Plumbing or Kitchen
Renter Owner Renter Owner Renter Owner
Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Lakeville 340 11.1% 1,702 8.0% 212 6.9% 93 0.4% 203 6.6% 0 0.0%
Dakota County 7,139 17.5% 26,588 20.7% 1,859 4.6% 1,137 0.9% 975 2.4% 250 0.2%
Minnesota 244,615 35.9% 707,304 38.2% 32,202 4.7% 23,665 1.3% 15,646 2.3% 10,852 0.6%
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
In Lakeville, 11.1% of the renter-occupied housing units and 8.0% of the owner-
occupied housing units were built prior to 1970. Both shares are lower than the county
and statewide shares and represent an inventory of relatively modern housing units.
While the share of overcrowded renter housing units (6.9%) is higher than the county
and statewide shares, the share of owner housing units with this issue (0.4%) is lower
than the comparison areas. The share of renter-occupied (6.6%) housing units with
incomplete plumbing or kitchens is also higher than the county and statewide shares
of such housing. Overall, there are approximately 415 renter households and 93 owner
households in Lakeville living in substandard housing conditions.
The following table compares key household income, housing cost, and housing
affordability metrics. It should be noted that cost burdened households pay over 30%
of income toward housing costs, while severe cost burdened households pay over 50%
of income toward housing.
Household Income, Housing Costs and Affordability
2024
Households
2024
Median HH
Income
2024
Median
Home Value
2022
Median
Gross Rent
2022 Share of Cost
Burdened HH*
2022 Share of Severe
Cost Burdened HH**
Renter Owner Renter Owner
Lakeville 25,885 $127,558 $467,695 $1,623 48.2% 13.4% 31.0% 3.4%
Dakota County 173,920 $102,310 $413,686 $1,410 47.0% 17.0% 21.9% 5.7%
Minnesota 2,309,848 $86,801 $360,089 $1,178 44.0% 18.2% 21.4% 6.7%
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
HH – Households; *Paying more than 30% of income toward housing costs; **Paying more than 50% of income toward housing costs
The estimated median home value in Lakeville of $467,695 is 13.1% higher than the
countywide median home value and 29.9% higher than the median home value for the
state. The median gross rent of $1,623 in the area is 15.1% higher than the county and
37.8% higher than the state. Despite a median household income of $127,558 in
Lakeville, approximately 48.2% of renter households and 13.4% of owner households
are housing cost burdened. As a result, there are approximately 1,478 renter
households and 2,839 owner households in Lakeville that are housing cost burdened,
of which approximately 1,670 total households are severe cost burdened (paying more
than 50% of income toward housing costs). As such, affordable housing alternatives
should be an integral part of future housing solutions.
Page 23 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-22
Based on the 2018-2022 American Community Survey (ACS) data, the following is a
distribution of all occupied housing by units in structure by tenure (renter or owner)
for each of the study areas.
Renter-Occupied Housing by Units in Structure Owner-Occupied Housing by Units in Structure
4 Units
or Less
5 Units
or More
Mobile
Home/Other Total
4 Units
or Less
5 Units
or More
Mobile
Home/Other Total
Lakeville Number 1,448 1,433 185 3,066 20,452 182 552 21,186
Percent 47.2% 46.7% 6.0% 100.0% 96.5% 0.9% 2.6% 100.0%
Dakota
County
Number 13,454 26,680 688 40,822 121,696 4,459 2,426 128,582
Percent 33.0% 65.4% 1.7% 100.0% 94.6% 3.5% 1.9% 100.0%
Minnesota Number 239,167 374,998 10,259 624,425 1,541,044 42,914 47,744 1,631,701
Percent 38.3% 60.1% 1.6% 100.0% 94.4% 2.6% 2.9% 100.0%
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
Most rental units in Lakeville are contained within smaller residential structures, as
53.2% of the rental units in Lakeville are within structures of four units or less or
mobile homes. Lakeville also has a lower share (46.7%) of multifamily rental housing
(five or more units within a structure) when compared to the county (65.4%) and state
(60.1%). Among owner-occupied units in Lakeville, 99.1% are within structures of
four units or less and mobile homes.
The following graph illustrates the distribution of monthly gross rents (per unit) for
rental alternatives within each of the study areas. Note that this data includes both
multifamily rentals and non-conventional rentals. However, with 53.2% of all rental
units in Lakeville classified as non-conventional (four units or less within a structure
and mobile homes), this data provides some insight into the overall distribution of
rents among the non-conventional rental supply. Note that gross rents include tenant-
paid rents and tenant-paid utilities.
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
*Excludes rentals classified as “No Cash Rent”
11.2%
4.7%
24.3%
54.6%
8.4%10.6%
36.5%
42.0%
18.3%16.0%
32.9%28.6%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
<$750 $750- $999 $1,000- $1,499 $1,500+
Distribution of Monthly Gross Rents by Area
Lakeville Dakota County Minnesota
Page 24 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-23
As the preceding illustrates, the largest share (54.6%) of Lakeville rental units have
gross rents of $1,500 or more, followed by units with gross rents between $1,000 and
$1,499 (24.3%). By comparison, only 15.9% of rental units in the city have gross rents
below $1,000. The distribution of gross rental rates in Lakeville is more heavily
weighted toward the higher priced product compared to the county and state.
Bowen National Research’s Survey of Housing Supply
Multifamily Rental Housing
A field survey of multifamily rental properties was conducted as part of the Dakota
County Housing Needs Assessment. The following table summarizes the surveyed
multifamily rental supply by project type for Lakeville and Dakota County. Note that
vacancy rates below 1% are highlighted in red text.
Surveyed Multifamily Rental Housing Supply by Area
Dakota County, MN
Projects
Surveyed
Total
Units
Vacant
Units
Overall
Vacancy
Rate
Vacancy Rate by Program Type
Market-
Rate
Tax
Credit
Government
Subsidized
Lakeville 22 2,309 209 9.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Dakota
County 229 27,211 1,161 4.3% 4.8% 2.3% 0.0%
Source: Bowen National Research
In Lakeville, a total of 22 apartment properties were surveyed, comprising a total of
2,309 units. Overall, the multifamily units are 90.9% occupied, with a total of 209
vacancies. Typically, in a well-balanced and healthy market, multifamily rentals
should have an overall occupancy rate between 94% and 96%. While Dakota County
as a whole has a healthy overall occupancy rate of 95.7%, the occupancy rate within
Lakeville (90.9%) is below the stated range. However, 141 of the 209 vacant units are
within a market-rate property that opened in 2023 and is still within its initial lease-up
period. Excluding this 252-unit market-rate property, the overall occupancy rate
among established properties in Lakeville is 96.6%. Also note that there are no vacant
units among the Tax Credit and government-subsidized units surveyed in the city. The
occupancy rates among the various program types are high and the presence of wait
lists, particularly among the Tax Credit product, are evidence of pent-up demand for
multifamily rentals for a variety of income levels within Lakeville. This likely
represents a future development opportunity within the city.
Page 25 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-24
The following table illustrates the median rent by bedroom/bathroom type for the
surveyed market-rate and Tax Credit units in Lakeville and Dakota County.
Median Rents by Program Type and Bedroom/Bathroom Type
Area
One-Br/
1.0-Ba
Two-Br/
1.0-Ba
Two-Br/
2.0-Ba
Three-Br/
2.0-Ba
Market-Rate
Lakeville $1,520 $1,895 $1,880 $2,271
Dakota County $1,385 $1,585 $1,785 $2,177
Tax Credit
Lakeville $765 $937 $1,341 $1,545
Dakota County $765 $920 $1,555 $1,604
Source: Bowen National Research
As the preceding illustrates, the median rent for the typical one-bedroom market-rate
unit in Lakeville ($1,520) is nearly twice as high as the comparable Tax Credit unit
($765) in the area. The median rents for market-rate units in Lakeville are also higher
than the corresponding median market-rate rents in Dakota County. Regardless of
program type, the median rents steadily increase for each subsequently larger unit
configuration for both study areas. With limited availability among Tax Credit and
government-subsidized units in both Lakeville and Dakota County, many low-income
households are likely to seek rental alternatives among the available market-rate and
non-conventional supply. This can result in a higher share of cost burdened households
in an area, or in some instances, may cause households to relocate outside of an area
to find more affordable housing choices.
Non-Conventional Rental Housing
Non-conventional rentals are considered rental units typically consisting of single-
family homes, duplexes, units over store fronts, and mobile homes and account for
53.2% of the total rental units in Lakeville.
During August and September 2024, Bowen National Research conducted an online
survey and identified 16 non-conventional rentals that were listed as available for rent
in Lakeville. While these rentals do not represent all non-conventional rentals, they
are representative of common characteristics of the various non-conventional rental
alternatives available in the market. As a result, these rentals provide a good baseline
to compare the rental rates and the number of bedrooms of non-conventional rentals
in the area.
Page 26 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-25
The following table illustrates the vacancy rates, which compares the number of
identified vacant non-conventional rentals to the total number of non-conventional
rentals based on the American Community Survey, for the subject city and Dakota
County.
Surveyed Non-Conventional Rentals Overview
Area
Non-Conventional
Rentals*
Identified
Vacant Units
Vacancy
Rate
Lakeville 1,633 16 1.0%
Dakota County 14,142 83 0.6%
Source: American Community Survey (2018-2022); ESRI; Bowen National Research
*ACS reported number of rental units within structures of four units or less and mobile homes
With a total of 16 available units identified, Lakeville has an overall vacancy rate of
1.0% for non-conventional rentals, which is slightly higher than the vacancy rate for
Dakota County (0.6%). Regardless, this occupancy rate is well below the optimal
range of 4% to 6% for non-conventional rentals and indicates a significant lack of
available non-conventional supply in the city.
A summary of the available non-conventional rental units in Lakeville and Dakota
County, which includes bedroom type, rent range, and median rent per square foot,
follows:
Available Surveyed Non-Conventional Rental Supply
Bedroom
Vacant
Units
Rent
Range
Median
Rent
Median Rent
Per Square Foot
Lakeville
Two-Bedroom 2 $1,900 - $2,000 $1,950 $1.33
Three-Bedroom 9 $2,000 - $3,400 $2,500 $1.47
Four-Bedroom 5 $2,395 - $3,200 $2,599 $1.22
Total 16
Dakota County
One-Bedroom 2 $1,050 - $1,300 $1,175 $1.60
Two-Bedroom 18 $910 - $2,585 $1,750 $1.39
Three-Bedroom 44 $1,825 - $3,750 $2,500 $1.40
Four-Bedroom 19 $2,000 - $3,945 $2,600 $1.25
Total 83
Source: Zillow, Rent.com, Homes.com
Among the available non-conventional rentals in Lakeville, the largest share (56.3%)
by bedroom type consists of three-bedroom units. The three-bedroom units have a
median rent of $2,500 ($1.47 per square foot) and an overall rent range of $2,000 to
$3,400. When typical utility costs ($300 or more) are considered, the typical three-
bedroom non-conventional rental in Lakeville has a gross rent of approximately
$2,800. This is a substantially higher rent as compared to the rent for the comparable
three-bedroom multifamily market-rate unit in the city, which has a median collected
rent of $2,271. As such, it is unlikely that most low-income households would be able
to afford the typical non-conventional rental in the area, even if such a unit were
readily available.
Page 27 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-26
For-Sale Housing
The following table summarizes the available (as of July 31, 2024) and recently sold
(between January 2020 and July 2024) for-sale housing stock for Lakeville and Dakota
County.
Lakeville - Owner For-Sale/Sold Housing Supply
Type Homes Median Price
Lakeville
Available* 121 $494,797
Sold** 5,252 $457,950
Dakota County
Available* 579 $395,000
Sold** 23,271 $380,000
Source: Redfin.com & Bowen National Research
*As of July 31, 2024
**Sales from January 1, 2020 to July 31, 2024
The available for-sale housing stock in Lakeville as of July 31, 2024 consists of 121
total units with a median list price of $494,797. This represents a much higher median
list price compared to the available for-sale homes in Dakota County ($395,000).
Historical sales from January 2020 to July 2024 in Lakeville consisted of 5,252 homes
with a median sales price of $457,950, which is 20.5% higher than the median sales
price reported for homes sold within Dakota County during this time period.
The following table and graph summarize historical sales volume and median sales
price by year from January 2020 through July 2024.
Sales History/Median Sales Price by Year – Lakeville
(January 1, 2020 to July 31, 2024)
Year
Number
Sold
Percent
Change
Median
Sales Price
Percent
Change
2020 1,207 - $400,000 -
2021 1,338 10.9% $450,000 12.5%
2022 1,116 -16.6% $494,878 10.0%
2023 961 -13.9% $490,000 -1.0%
2024* 630 (1,080) (12.4%) $499,900 2.0%
Source: Redfin.com & Bowen National Research
*As of July 31, 2024; Volume projected through the remainder of 2024 (in parenthesis)
Page 28 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-27
*2024 full year volume projection
As the preceding illustrates, home sales in Lakeville increased by 10.9% between 2020
and 2021. Since 2021, volume decreased in each subsequent year; however,
projections indicate that sales volume will increase 12.4% in 2024. It should be noted
that the current year’s projection is based solely on transactions year-to-date, which
may not account for seasonality in the market that can influence the projection. While
volume decreased annually in recent years, the median sales price of homes sold in
the city increased substantially. Collectively, the median sales price of homes sold in
Lakeville increased by 25.0% between January 2020 and July 2024. It is also
noteworthy that the median sales price through July 2024 is 2.0% higher than the 2022
median sales price. This suggests that home prices in the city are increasing, albeit at
a lower annual rate than in years past.
The following table provides various housing market metrics for the available for-sale
homes in Lakeville and Dakota County as of July 31, 2024.
Available For-Sale Housing
(As of July 31, 2024)
Area
Total
Available
Units
Share of
County
Availability
Rate
Months
Supply of
Inventory
Average
List Price
Median
List Price
Average
Days
on Market
Average
Year Built
Lakeville 121 20.9% 0.6% 1.3 $533,830 $494,797 47 2006
Dakota County 579 100.0% 0.5% 1.4 $447,241 $395,000 43 1992
Source: Redfin.com & Bowen National Research
The 121 available for-sale homes in Lakeville represent 20.9% of the available for-
sale homes in Dakota County. These homes equate to an availability rate of 0.6% when
compared to the 21,186 owner-occupied units in the city. Based on recent sales history,
this inventory represents 1.3 Months Supply of Inventory (MSI). Typically, in healthy,
well-balanced markets, approximately 2% to 3% of the for-sale housing stock should
be available for purchase and there should be between four and six months of available
1,207 1,338 1,116 961 1,080
$400,000 $450,000 $494,878 $490,000 $499,900
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024*
Lakeville Annual Sales/Median Price (2020-2024*)
Number Sold Median Price
Page 29 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-28
inventory to allow for inner-market mobility and household growth. The available for-
sale homes have an average number of days on market of 47 days and an average year
built of 2006. Overall, the data illustrates that there is limited availability of for-sale
homes and a short average number of days on market, which has likely contributed, at
least in part, to the notable increase in for-sale pricing since 2020.
The following graph compares the distribution of historical and available for-sale
residential units by price point for Lakeville:
Source: Redfin.com & Bowen National Research
As the preceding illustrates, nearly three-quarters (73.6%) of available homes in
Lakeville are priced at $400,000 and higher, which represents a higher share of homes
within this price range compared to historical sales in the city. By comparison, only
32 of the 121 available units are priced below $400,000 and only 11 are priced below
$300,000. There is an extremely limited inventory of available homes within lower
price points in the city. This is likely to create affordability issues for much of the area
workforce and first-time homebuyers, which may limit the ability of the area to attract
new households.
0.2%8.1%
23.9%
67.8%
0.8%
(1)
8.3%
(10)
17.4%
(21)
73.6%
(89)
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
<$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000-$399,999 $400,000+
Distribution of For-Sale Homes by Price Point -Lakeville
Historical vs Available (Number Available)
Historical Sales Available For-Sale
Page 30 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-29
Senior Care Housing
As part of the Dakota County Housing Needs Assessment, senior care facilities within
the county were surveyed. The facilities that were evaluated include three levels of
care that typically respond to older adults seeking, or who need, alternatives to their
current living environment. This includes independent living, assisted living and
nursing care. The following table summarizes the surveyed facilities by property type
for Lakeville and the entirety of Dakota County.
Surveyed Senior Care Facilities
Project Type Projects
Marketed
Beds/Units Vacant
Occupancy
Rate
National Median
Occupancy Rate
Base Monthly
Rates
Lakeville
Independent Living 3 230 10 95.7% 86.8% $1,557-$4,613
Assisted Living 4 239 10 95.8% 85.4% $2,250-$12,100
Nursing Homes - - - - 82.0% -
Total 7 469 20 95.7% - $1,557-$12,100
Dakota County
Independent Living 21 1,355 56 95.9% 86.8% $775-$4,742
Assisted Living 32 1,975 115 94.2% 85.4% $1,506-$12,100
Nursing Homes 7 616 113 81.7% 82.0% $6,894-$21,292
Total 60 3,946 284 92.8% - $775-$21,292
Source: 2023 State of Seniors Housing and Bowen National Research
Note: In some cases, daily rates were converted to monthly rates
As the preceding illustrates, a total of seven senior care projects were surveyed within
Lakeville. These projects have an overall occupancy rate of 95.7%. The occupancy
rates in Lakeville for independent living (95.7%) and assisted living (95.8%) facilities
are well above the national median occupancy rates for each facility type. The high
occupancy rates and projected increase in households aged 65 and older in the city
suggest that there could be an increase in demand for senior care options over the next
five years.
Planned & Proposed
In addition to the surveys of each housing type within this overview, Bowen National
Research conducted interviews with representatives of area building and permitting
departments and performed extensive online research to identify residential projects
either planned for development or currently under construction within Dakota County.
The following summarizes the known details for the multifamily rental and for-sale
housing projects that are planned, proposed, or under construction within Lakeville.
Note that at the time of research, no senior care housing projects were identified within
the city that were either planned or under construction.
Page 31 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-30
Multifamily Rental Housing Development - Lakeville
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/ Details
179th Street Apts.
SW of 179th St. W. & Glacier
Way Market-Rate 243
TE Miller
Development
Planned: Approved winter 2022; Received
extension through December 2024; Studio-, one-
and two-bedroom units.
Kenyon Green
18430 Kenyon Ave. Tax Credit 49
Ron Clark
Construction
and Design
Planned: Funded through Dakota County CDA;
60% AMHI; Construction to start 2025; ECD 2026.
Sundance Lakeville
North of 162nd St. between
Kendale Dr. & Buck Hill Rd. Market-Rate 167
Timberland
Partners
Planned: Townhome units with rents ranging from
$1,421 for a one-bedroom to $2,970 for three-
bedroom units; Development will include nine for-
sale single-family homes; ECD unknown.
For-Sale Housing Development - Lakeville
Subdivision Name & Address
Product
Type Units/Lots Developer Status/Details
Cedar Hills (5th, 6th, and
preliminary platted phases)
NE corner of Cedar & 200th St.
Single-
Family &
Townhome 331 Lennar
Planned: Phase V (36 single-family lots and 34
townhomes) and Phase VI (41 townhomes)
approved in the last two years and additional
approved preliminary platted phase (78 single-
family lots and 142 townhomes). Homes to range
from $431,990 to $660,205 with 1,557 to 2,786 sq.
ft. for single-family.
Berres Ridge (9th and
preliminary platted phases)
N of 202 St. & W of Hamburg
Ave.
Single-
Family 84 OneTenTen
Planned: Phase nine approved in 2023 (34 lots)
and additional approved preliminary platted phase
(50 lots). Homes to range from $579,900 to
$897,616 with 2,735 to 4,243 sq. ft.
Brookshire (2nd, 3rd, and
preliminary platted Phases)
S. of 170 St. & E. of Eagleview
Dr
Single-
Family &
Townhome 730 D.R. Horton
Planned: Phase II (81 lots) and Phase III (58 single
-family lots and 36 townhomes) approved in the
last two years and additional approved preliminary
platted phase (429 single-family lots and 126
townhomes). Homes to range from $547,000 to
$663,000 with 1,721 to 3,448 sq. ft. for single-
family; $389,990 to $428,805 with 1,894 to 1,965
sq. ft. for townhomes.
Caslano (2nd Phase and
preliminary platted phases)
S of Dodd Blvd. & W of Hwy.
Ave.
Single-
Family 211 Lennar
Planned: Phase II (60 lots) approved in the last two
years and additional approved preliminary platted
phase (151 single-family lots). Homes to range
from $583,990 to $688,990 with 2,692 to 3,328 sq.
ft.
Preserve of Lakeville (3rd and
preliminary platted phases)
NE of Kenwood Trl. & S. of
185 St.
Single-
Family 46
Country Joe
Homes
Planned: Phase III (20 lots) approved in the last
two years and additional approved preliminary
platted phase (26 lots). Homes to range from
$774,994 to $1,050,000 with 3,538 to 4,811 sq. ft.
Cedar Creek Villas (2nd and
preliminary platted phases)
NW of 202nd St. & Cedar Ave. Townhome 88
Summergate
Companies
Planned: Phase II (29 townhomes) approved in the
last two years and additional approved preliminary
platted phase (59 townhomes). Home size and price
not found.
Cordelia (2nd and preliminary
platted phases)
S. of 179th & E. of Glacier Townhome 188 Pulte Homes
Planned: Phase II (91 townhomes) approved in the
last two years and additional approved preliminary
platted phase (97 townhomes). Homes to range
from $364,990 to $419,990 with 1,883 to 1,996 sq.
ft.
ECD – Estimated Completion Date
Page 32 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-31
For-Sale Housing Development – Lakeville (CONTINUED)
Subdivision Name & Address
Product
Type Units/Lots Developer Status/Details
Ritter Meadows (1st and
preliminary platted phases)
Single-
Family &
Detached
Townhome 354
Twin Cities
Land
Development
and Robert
Thomas
Homes
Planned: Phase I (99 townhomes) approved in the
last two years and additional approved preliminary
platted phase (29 single-family lots and 226
townhomes).
Voyageur Farms (2nd, 3rd, and
preliminary platted phases)
7376 183rd St. W.
Detached
Townhome 243
U.S. Home,
LLC and
Lennar
Planned: Phase II (31 townhomes) and Phase III
(90 townhomes) approved in the last two years and
additional approved preliminary platted phase (122
townhomes). Homes to range from $458,990 to
$520,990 with 1,830 to 2,553 sq. ft.
Glacier Creek
E. of Cedar Ave. & S. of 179 St.
Single-
Family 36
CNC
Development
V, LLC and
OneTenTen
Planned: In approved preliminary platted phase.
Homes start at approximately $780,000 with 3,921
sq. ft.
Highview Ridge
S. of Dodd & E of Highview
Ave.
Single-
Family 27
Youngfield
Homes
Planned: In approved preliminary platted phase.
Homes to range from $563,600 to $717,300 with
2,016 to 4,027 sq. ft.
Pheasant Run of Lakeville
N. of 179 St. & E. of Pilot Knob
Rd.
Single-
Family &
Detached
Townhome 85 KJ Walk
Planned: Phase I (57 single-family) approved in
the last two years and additional approved
preliminary townhome platted phase VIII (28
townhomes). Homes to range from $470,200 to
$612,100 with 1,385 to 3,559 sq. ft. for single-
family; $735,500 and 2,957 sq. ft. for townhomes.
Summers Creek
S. of Dodd Blvd., E of
Highview Ave. & W. of Cedar
Ave.
Single-
Family &
Detached
Townhome 76
Summergate
Companies
Planned: 43 single-family and 33 townhome lots
in early approved preliminary phase. Homes to
range from $470,900 to $528,900 with 1,517 to
3,563 sq. ft.
A total of 459 rental units and 2,499 for-sale housing units are planned within
Lakeville during the next several years. Among these housing projects is a 49-unit
rental community developed under the Tax Credit program, which will help satisfy a
portion of the extremely high demand for affordable rental housing in the city. The
number of planned housing units will likely help meet some of the increased demand
stemming from the projected household growth for the city.
E. HOUSING GAP
Based on ESRI household projections from 2024 to 2029, which is the most up-to-
date version available, and taking into consideration the housing data from our field
survey of area housing alternatives, we are able to project the potential number of new
housing units that are needed (housing gap) in Lakeville. The following paragraph
summarizes the metrics used in our demand estimates.
Page 33 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-32
We included renter and owner household growth, the number of units required for a
balanced market, the need for replacement of substandard housing, commuter/external
market support, severe cost-burdened households, and step-down support as the
demand components in our estimates for new rental and for-sale housing units. As part
of this analysis, we accounted for vacancies reported among both renter- and owner-
occupied housing alternatives, considered applicable units in the development
pipeline, and concluded this analysis by providing the number of units that are needed
by different income segments, rent levels, and purchase price points.
Lakeville has an overall five-year housing gap of 3,796 units, with a gap of 692 rental
units and a gap of 3,104 for-sale units. The following table summarizes the rental and
for-sale housing gaps by income and affordability levels for Lakeville.
Lakeville Housing Gap Estimates
Percent AMHI* ≤30% 31%-60% 61%-80% 81%-115% 116%+
Total
Housing
Gap
Household Income ≤ $37,260 $37,261-$74,520 $74,521-$99,360 $99,361-$142,830 $142,831+
Rent Range ≤ $931 $932-$1,863 $1,864-$2,484 $2,485-$3,570 $3,571+
Price Range ≤ $124,200 $124,201-$248,400 $248,401-$331,200 $331,201-$476,100 $476,101+
Five-Year Estimates (2024-2029)
Rental Housing Gap 360 125 80 84 43 692
For-Sale Housing Gap 0 200 696 1,857 351 3,104
10-Year Estimates (2024-2034)
Rental Housing Gap 720 299 273 364 187 1,843
For-Sale Housing Gap 0 250 1,392 4,236 1,306 7,184
Source: Bowen National Research
AMHI – Area Median Household Income; *Based on HUD limits for Lakeville (4-person limit)
As the preceding table illustrates, the projected housing gaps encompass a variety of
affordability levels for both rental and for-sale housing product. The greatest need for
rental product in the five-year projection period appears to be for product serving
households earning up to 30% of AMHI. The greatest need for for-sale product
appears to be for product serving households earning between 81% and 115% of
AMHI. Although development within Lakeville should be prioritized to the housing
product showing the greatest gaps, it appears efforts to address housing should
consider various rents and price points across the housing spectrum. The addition of a
variety of housing product types and affordability levels would enhance the subject
market’s ability to attract potential workers and help meet the changing and growing
housing needs of the local market.
F. STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS (SWOT)
A SWOT analysis often serves as the framework to evaluate an area’s competitive
position and to develop strategic planning. It considers internal and external factors,
as well as current and future potential. Ultimately, such an analysis is intended to
identify core strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that can lead to
strategies that can be developed and implemented to address local housing issues.
Page 34 of 43
BOWEN NATIONAL RESEARCH Addendum J-33
The following is a summary of key findings from this SWOT analysis for Lakeville.
SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
• Household growth of 38.5% (2010-2024)
• Positive household growth projections by
tenure (owner/renter)
• Positive household income growth projections
• Newer existing housing stock as compared to
the county
• No vacancies at Tax Credit and subsidized
multifamily apartments
• Low availability rates for non-conventional
rentals and for-sale housing
• Higher share of substandard rental housing
units as compared to county
Opportunities Threats
• Housing need of 692 rental units and 3,104
for-sale units within the next five years
• Projected household growth of nearly 10.0%
between 2024 and 2029
• Attract some of the 12,931 commuters coming
into the county for work to live in the county
• Higher overall housing costs as compared to
county and rising cost of for-sale housing
• Higher share of cost burdened renter
households
• Less than 25.0% of employed residents work
in the city
• Risk of losing some of the 31,000+ residents
that commute out of the city for employment
Lakeville has experienced significant household growth since 2010 and household
growth in the city is projected to continue over the next five years. Note that the city
has no vacancies among its affordable multifamily units, a low number of available
non-conventional rental units, and a low availability rate within the for-sale housing
market. These availability issues combined with rising for-sale costs and a significant
number of residents commuting outside Lakeville for employment increase the
likelihood of households relocating outside the city. However, the city has over 450
rental units and nearly 2,500 for-sale housing units planned over the next several years
which could help meet a portion of the unmet demand for housing within the city.
Despite the significant number of planned residential units, the city is still projected
to have housing gaps of 692 rental units and 3,104 for-sale units over the next five
years. The nearly 13,000 workers commuting to Lakeville for employment daily
represent a significant base of potential support for future housing development,
which can contribute to positive household growth that will support a growing local
economy.
Page 35 of 43
Date: 4/28/2025
2025-2026 City of Lakeville Hunting Map
Proposed Action
No formal action is required. Information is for discussion purposes only.
Overview
Annually, Staff reviews the current Hunting Map to determine if any changes to the permitted
hunting zone areas are needed as a result of new development in the city. Staff from the
Planning, Parks and Police departments reviewed the existing map and are proposing several
areas to be removed from the allowable hunting areas as noted in the delineated red areas on the
attached map.
Additionally, staff is proposing updates to the hunting rules listed on the map to ensure they
align with current City ordinance and further clarify hunting rules within the City of Lakeville.
Supporting Information
1. Hunting Map Removed Sections 2025
2. Hunting Map Proposal 2025
3. Hunting 2025 Rules Update
Financial Impact: $ Budgeted: No Source: NA
Envision Lakeville Community Values: Access to a Multitude of Natural Amenities and
Recreational Opportunities
Report Completed by: Brad Paulson, Police Chief and Joe Masiarchin, Parks and Recreation
Director
Page 36 of 43
Page 37 of 43
Page 38 of 43
Page 39 of 43
Date: 4/28/2025
FiRST Center Membership Plan
Proposed Action
Discussion only.
Overview
As the construction of the FiRST Center begins, the next step in preparing for opening day is to
develop a marketing and membership plan. As part of Leo A Daly’s contract, they completed a
proforma for operating the FiRST Center that indicated the initial annual operating costs would
be approximately $450,000. In addition, staff have reviewed membership models from various
public safety training facilities throughout the metro area to ensure we set our membership costs
and benefits to be consistent with those and provide the required annual income to operate the
facility. Administration and Police Department staff will be available at the April 28 City
Council work session to review the attached draft of the FiRST Center membership plan.
Supporting Information
1. FiRST Center Overview flyer Agency Partners (3)
Financial Impact: $N/A Budgeted: No Source:
Envision Lakeville Community Values: Good Value for Public Service
Report Completed by: Allyn Kuennen, Assistant City Administrator
Page 40 of 43
FiRST Center Overview
Designed to meet regional training needs with
purpose-built facilities.
Immersive, reality-based training enhanced by
cutting-edge AV technology.
Funded through federal, state and local
resources.
Flexible and adaptable to support the evolving
needs of public safety professionals.
Set to open in 2026.
Dedicated spaces for specialized
skills training and development:
Dedicated mats room for training in
defensive tactics, response to resistance and
de-escalation.
Classroom space for 114 seats or split the
rooms for multiple sessions.
Two-story reality-based training space with
flexible wall systems to simulate various
commercial and residential environments.
Virtual reality training to enhance decision-
making skills under pressure.
12-lane, 50-yard tactical range designed for
advanced training.
Six-lane, 25-yard adjustable target range—
open to the public.
City of Lakeville LakevilleMN.gov
20195 Holyoke, Lakeville, Minnesota
7 7 7 7 2 1 4 S T R E E TTH
Train Smarter. Train Safer. Train for What’s Real.
Our advanced training center is built for today’s first
responders. It’s built to meet the evolving needs of today’s
police trainers—offering the flexibility, realism and functionality
required to deliver high-impact, real-world training.
From configurable spaces that simulate dynamic environments
to advanced live-fire ranges, defensive tactics rooms and
cutting-edge simulation tools, every element is designed to
support skill development, officer safety and decision-making
under pressure. Spaces are built to encourage interagency
cooperation. With secure storage, after-hours access and
user-friendly scheduling, the facility empowers agencies to
train how and when they need—efficiently, effectively and
without compromise.
No matter your agency’s mission, we’re built to support it—
because when it comes to readiness, the options truly are
endless.
Page 41 of 43
INVEST IN EXCELLENCE
FiRST Center Membership
Benefits and Pricing
Preferred Scheduling
Access to facility scheduling after
Capital Members—still ahead of
general booking.
Per-Officer Annual Pricing
Flexible, scalable pricing based on
your agency’s needs.
Minimum 4 Hours of Range Time Per
Officer, Per Year
Guaranteed access to support regular
skill development and qualification.
Dedicated Storage Space (As Available)
On-site equipment storage offered
based on availability.
Remote Calendar Access
Your training coordinator can easily
reserve time using our online
scheduling system.
Capital Membership Benefits
Priority Scheduling
Priority pick of training dates and times
before general access opens.
Unlimited Agency Range Time
Train as often as needed—based on
availability.
Flat-Fee Pricing for Entire Agency
One predictable rate covers your whole
team, no surprise costs.
After-Hours Facility Access
Train on your schedule, including evenings
and weekends, based on availability.
Dedicated Storage Space
Secure, on-site storage for your training
equipment and aids—ready when you are.
No Additional Space Rental Fees
Full access to training rooms and range
space is included in your membership.
Remote Calendar Access
Your agency training coordinator can
reserve facility time with ease through a
dedicated scheduling portal.
Join a community built on readiness, resilience and results. Our membership plans are designed to give you access
to advanced training facilities—offering the tools, space and support your team needs to train like it's your own.
With membership, it’s more than access—it’s partnership. You'll bring your own trainers, shape your own programs
and operate like you have a facility of your own—without the overhead.
Enjoy exceptional value, unmatched flexibility and top-tier customer service that treats your team like part of ours.
We're here to support your mission every step of the way.
Your Team. Your Training. Your Space.
Preferred Membership Benefits
Membership $Membership $
Page 42 of 43
GENERAL
FACILITY PRICING
Defensive Tactics Room (Mats Room)
1503 square feet, wall pads, floor mats
$260 a day
Shooting Range
12-lane, 50-yard
$235 an hour
Public Range
6-lane, 25-yard
$25 an hour per person (add 2 shooter to lane $10)nd
$5 discount law enforcement/military/veteran
(Rates are per hour with estimated total shooting time of appx. 45 mins.)
Classrooms
Full classroom 114 seats $500 a day
Half classroom 57 seats $250 a day
Virtual/Indoor & Outdoor Reality
Virtual reality $100 an hour
Indoor & outdoor reality $525 a day
Page 43 of 43