HomeMy WebLinkAboutItem 05a - Cedar Avenue Land Use and Market AnalysisCity of Lakeville
Community Development
Memorandum
To: Planning Commission
Tina Goodroad, Community Development Director
January 29, 2026
Cedar Avenue Corridor Land Use and Market Analysis
Community Development staff have been working with a consulting group (TKDA) to evaluate
land use along the Cedar Avenue corridor between 185th and 200th Streets. The 2040
Comprehensive Plan identified this area (one half mile on either side of Cedar Avenue) as a special
planning district, intended to align land use strategies with the Red Line Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
plan. The Land Use Plan proposed five transit station areas along Cedar Avenue to support the
potential extension of the Red Line through Lakeville and increased residential densities of at least
eight dwelling units per acre within the broader Cedar Corridor and 20-40 units per acre within a
½-mile radius of the proposed station areas.
With the Red Line BRT no longer included in the Metropolitan Council’s Imagine 2050
Transportation Policy Plan, it is necessary to reassess market conditions and determine
appropriate land uses along the corridor to guide development in Lakeville’s upcoming 2050
Comprehensive Plan.
The market study for this area has been completed, and City staff have conducted a design charrette
to develop an updated land use plan. City staff and a TKDA representative met with study area
property owners on December 9th and 11th to share the findings and gather feedback.
At the Planning Commission meeting, the consultant will present the results of the market analysis
and the land use concept, which reflects the anticipated market potential of various land uses along
the corridor. These findings and the concept will be used as we continue the process to update the
2050 Comprehensive Plan.
Cedar Avenue
Land Use & Market Analysis Study
January 2026
Prepared by
Table of Contents
Introduction ....................................................................................1
Site Boundary 1
Background 1
Planning Process 2
Existing Conditions Review ..........................................................3
Transportation and Infrastructure Context 3
Environmental Context 4
Development Context 4
Market Analysis and Context Review ...........................................5
Guidance for developing the Small Area Plan includes: 7
Land Use .......................................................................................7
Commercial and Office Development 7
Concept Review and Development Framework ...........................8
Small Area Plan .............................................................................9
Transportation Network 9
Land Use 10
Phasing 11
Conclusion ....................................................................................11
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 1
Introduction
The City of Lakeville developed a Land Use and Market Analysis Plan for the Cedar Avenue corridor between 185th Street
and 200th Street. While the City of Lakeville has consistently ranked as the fastest growing city in the Twin Cities metro
area, this segment of the community has remained undeveloped. The purpose of this Plan is to understand the market
and land use opportunities in this project area to support the City’s broader 2050 planning efforts. Ultimately, the study
aims to provide a baseline analysis of how the Cedar Avenue site is likely to develop based on current market conditions
and develop a stronger understanding of stakeholder goals. The analysis serves as general guidance for land use
decisions and sets the stage for comprehensive planning.
Site Boundary
The limits of the study, shown in Figure 1, include
185th Street to the north, 200th Street to the south,
Hamburg Avenue to the west, and the City boundary
to the east.
0 0.1 0.2Miles ¯Site Boundary
Municipal Boundary
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Cedar Avenue Market Study Land Use Concept
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Existing Road
Planned Road
Multimodal Connection
Existing Green Space Corridor
Single Family/Detached Townhomes (2.5 to 6 du/ac)
Attached Townhomes/Twinhomes (6-9 du/ac)
Apartments (18-32 du/ac)
Commercial/Office
Shoreline Boundaries
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Figure 1. Site Boundary
Background
The 2040 Comprehensive Plan designated the Cedar Avenue Corridor as a special planning area, aligning land use
approaches with plans for the Red Line Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) extension. It called for the creation of five transit
station areas to support the Red Line’s expansion through Lakeville. Additionally, the plan recommended increasing
residential density to at least 8 units per acre within the Cedar Avenue Corridor, and between 20 and 40 units per acre
within a half-mile of the five planned transit stations. However, since the Red Line BRT is no longer included in the
Imagine 2050 Transportation Policy Plan, the City is now re-evaluating market trends and land use opportunities along
the corridor to help shape the forthcoming 2050 Comprehensive Plan.
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 2
Planning Process
The planning process began with a comprehensive assessment of the
site’s existing conditions, including land use, transportation connections,
utilities, topography, and socioeconomic trends. The project team
completed a market analysis specific to the project area, followed
by an analysis of the current land use conditions. A design charrette
was facilitated with city staff where a design framework and multiple
alternatives were developed. After iterative review, a final alternative was
selected and presented to property owners for review.
Study Process
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 3
Existing Conditions Review
Transportation and Infrastructure Context
Dakota County has jurisdiction over Cedar Avenue (Highway 23) and 185th Street (Highway 60), as well as 200th
Street (Highway 64) east of Cedar Avenue. All other roadways within the study area fall under the ownership and
maintenance responsibilities of the City of Lakeville. Figure 2 provides a visual representation of the Annual Average
Daily Traffic (AADT) volumes in
the area, which indicates the
approximate number of vehicles
traveling along each roadway on
an average day throughout the
year. This information is important
for understanding current traffic
patterns and identifying potential
areas of congestion or safety
concerns.
Cedar Avenue, classified as a
principal arterial, serves as the
primary transportation corridor
in the study area and currently
experiences the highest volume
of vehicular traffic. Crash data
collected between 2015 and 2025
is mapped by both severity and
location, providing insights into
safety issues along these key
corridors. Understanding crash
patterns also informs future
roadway design and traffic control
measures.
Dakota County has identified a
future extension of 185th Street,
which is depicted as a dashed line
on the project maps. This planned
extension will continue eastward,
ultimately connecting with the City
of Farmington and linking to 195th
Street. As the area continues to
evolve, these planned transportation
improvements will play a significant
role in shaping travel patterns and
supporting the long-term vision for
the Cedar Avenue Corridor.
AADT: 1,161
AA
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AADT: 446
AADT: 1,311
AADT: 475
AADT: 2,421
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Municipal Boundary
Parcels
Future County
Highway
Annual Average Daily Traffic
(Latest Data)
Less than 2,000
2,001 to 4,000
4,001 to 8,000
8,001 to 12,000
More than 12,000
Crashes by Severity
(2015-2025)
Serious Injury
Minor Injury
Possible Injury
Property Damage
Only
Cedar Avenue Small Area Plan
Transportation Context
Figure 2. Transportation Context
Future 185th Street
Extension
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 4
Environmental Context
Figure 3 represents the existing topography across
the project. Areas in blue highlight low-lying drainage
corridors. These corridors are crucial to the site’s
natural water management, as they direct stormwater
runoff and help prevent flooding in developed and
undeveloped areas. Understanding the location and
extent of these low-lying areas is important for planning
future development, as they may present constraints for
building placement, infrastructure, and road alignments.
Additionally, preservation of these drainage corridors
can help maintain ecological function and support green
infrastructure strategies, such as stormwater retention
basins or natural open space buffers.
Development Context
Figure 4 illustrates recent developments in and near
the project study area. See Table A for a summary of
the overall densities. All developments are residential,
with a mix of single-family and attached and detached
townhomes. These new neighborhoods reflect current
housing trends and demand for a variety of residential
options within the area. The single-family homes provide
traditional detached living,
while the attached and
detached townhomes offer
higher-density alternatives
that cater to diverse
household preferences
and affordability levels.
These new residential
areas contribute to
shaping the character of
the area and establish
a foundation for future
infrastructure investments,
community amenities,
and transportation
improvements as outlined
in the planning process.
64
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Aronson Park
Middle
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Grand
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Harvest Dr
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Municipal Boundary
Stream
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Park
Elevation
Lower (900 ft)Higher (1,100 ft)
Cedar Avenue Small Area Plan
Environmental Context
Figure 3. Environmental Context
Figure 4. Development Context
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 5
Table A. Recent Development Context
Development Housing Types Total Units Net Density Gross Density
Voyager Farms Addition Detached townhomes 154 units 4.0 u/a 2.47 u/a
Glacier Creek 5th Addition Single-family homes 39 units 3.18 u/a 3.10 u/a
Amelia Meadows Single-family and attached
townhomes 232 units 3.88 u/a 3.15 u/a
Berres Ridge 9th Addition Single-family homes 34 units 2.6 u/a 1.95 u/a
Reserve at Cedar Creek Single-family homes 48 units 3.27 u/a 2.40 u/a
Cedar Creek Villas Addition Single-family homes 66 units 3.13 u/a 2.20 u/a
Cedar Hills Addition Single-family homes 205 units 3.11 u/a 2.16 u/a
Market Analysis and Context Review
The project team conducted a comprehensive market analysis
to guide planning and land-use decisions for the undeveloped
Cedar Avenue corridor in Lakeville (See Appendix A for the full
report). The methodology included site analysis, demographic
and economic assessment, review of competitive market
conditions, and demand forecasts based on population,
household, and employment projections, all adjusted with
recent market trends. The intent of the market analysis was
to provide a foundation of understanding for the current
development opportunities in the project area. This data was
used to influence the development of alternative concepts.
The market study identified expected development typologies
for the corridor, providing density estimates and anticipated
uses for each type:
• Single-Family Homes & Detached Townhomes: 3 units per
acre
• Attached Townhomes & Twinhomes: 6 units per acre
• Apartments: 25 units per acre
• Restaurant & Retail: General retail, service, and office uses
(no specified density)
• Office & Medical Office: Professional office uses, retail,
sales, and services (no specified density)
Table B represents the market demand findings. The data illustrates approximately how many units of each
development typology are likely to develop between 2025-2030 and 2030-2040 if development were left solely to the
market. Note that a total build-out of all the land by 2040 is not anticipated.
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 6
Table B. Demand Estimates for the Project Area
Development Densities from
Market Analysis* 2025-2030 2030-2040
Single-Family Homes and
Detached Townhomes 3.0 units per acre 350 – 400 units
115.0 – 135.0 acres
700 – 800 units
230.0 – 270.0 acres
Attached Townhomes and
Twinhomes 6.0 units per acre 100 – 130 units
16.0 – 22.0 acres
200 – 300 units
33.0 – 50.0 acres
Apartments 25.0 units per acre 250 – 300 units
10.0 – 12.0 acres
500 – 600 units
20.0 – 24.0 acres
Restaurant and Retail 10,000 sqft per acre 8,000 – 12,000 sqft
1.0 – 1.5 acres
0 – 50,000 sqft
0.0 – 5.0 acres
Office and Medical Office 10,000 sqft per acre 0 - 15,000 units
0.0 – 1.5 acres
0 – 30,000 units
0.0 – 3.0 acres
*These are typical densities of new developments in the City of Lakeville and are used to estimate absorption of land in the
project area.
The following is a summary of key findings from this market analysis:
Residential
• Overall, the site would work well for residential development
• Absorption of single-family homes/townhomes in Lakeville has been steady despite market swings, interest rate
spikes, etc.
• Several new rental projects have been built in the Lakeville market in recent years, increasing overall supply, but
absorption has been strong
Restaurant and Retail
• Based on traffic counts and site characteristics, retail would work well at parcels immediately adjacent to Cedar
Avenue
• However, the site currently lacks the east-west connections that would drive significant retail development in the
study area
Office, Medical Office, and Industrial
• General office development will continue to be slow, but there may be opportunities for medical office development
in the study area
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 7
Guidance for developing the Small Area Plan includes:
• Focus initial development on single-family residential
projects closer to but not immediately adjacent to
Cedar Avenue
• Cluster higher-density apartments and townhome
developments closer to major intersections
• As housing affordability continues to drive household
decisions, provide flexibility to pivot to more dense
housing option—both for-sale and rental
• Set aside some parcels immediately adjacent to major
intersections for retail development—especially the
185th Street intersection
• Carefully consider the specifics of the planned 185th
Street extension into Farmington. This roadway
will become critical in determining how traffic
flows through the area and the overall commercial
opportunity of these sites
• Plan for total build-out of area to be greater than 15
years
• Take the opportunity to develop a trail and park system
throughout the area—leverage connectivity to the new
Grand Prairie Park
Land Use
The project team approached the determination of overall densities by utilizing them as a planning tool rather than as
final recommendations. Densities helped estimate land consumption and identify appropriate locations for different
housing typologies within the study area. The team compared market analysis findings with existing city policies and
recent development trends within the City of Lakeville. This process allowed for a flexible and responsive land use plan
that could adapt to evolving market conditions and community needs while maintaining consistency with broader city
goals.
Table C. 2040 Comprehensive Plan Land Use Categories
Land Use Density
(du/ac)Anticipated Uses Acres % of Area
Low/Medium
Density 4.0-5.0 Single-family, two family, detached
townhouses 557 64%
Medium/High
Density 5.0-9.0 Detached townhouse, quad, row/
back-to-back attached townhouses 119 14%
Corridor Mixed Use 26.0-45.0 High density residential, senior
housing, commercial, office 119 14%
Parks N/A Open space and recreation 69 8%
The study compared market analysis findings against the Comprehensive Plan guidance and assumed the following
residential density ranges for proposed development scenarios:
• Single-family Homes: 2.5-4.5 units/acre
• Detached Townhomes: 3.0-6.0 units/acre
• Twinhomes: 4.0-7.0 units/acre
• Attached Townhomes: 6.0-9.0 units/acre
• Apartments: 18.0-32.0 units/acre
Commercial and Office Development
Commercial and office uses were estimated at 10,000 square feet per acre, with considerations for supporting retail,
service, and office uses. These uses are planned to complement residential areas and support community needs.
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 8
Concept Review and Development Framework
Following an analysis of the existing conditions and input gathered from City staff, a range of alternatives was
considered. Each concept was carefully analyzed to understand its unique strengths, limitations, and potential
impacts. The following design framework was developed to guide and evaluate each concept:
• Balancing community amenities
• Enhancing multimodal transportation connectivity
• Developing robust east-west connections
• Providing flexibility in land uses
• Protecting green space corridors
• Developing “complete neighborhoods”
• Supporting Envision Lakeville and the Economic Development Strategic Plan
These priorities aim to create vibrant, accessible, and sustainable neighborhoods along the Cedar Avenue Corridor.
Concepts Developed During Design Charrette
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 9
Small Area Plan
Figure 5 represents the final alternative developed for the Small Area Plan. This concept represents the general location
of the land use typologies and circulation through the project area if the site were to be built out. Based on the findings
of the market study, complete consumption is not anticipated by 2040.
Transportation Network
The solid black lines represent the
existing roadways, while the dashed
lines represent anticipated future
connections. Dakota County’s 2040
Transportation Plan allows for access
to Cedar Avenue every ½ mile along
principal arterials. An additional
crossing is identified between 190th
Street and 200th Street. The
County-led 185th Street extension
is illustrated, which would provide
enhanced east-west connections at
the north end of the project area. A
north/south roadway is shown on the
east connecting Glacier Creek down
to Amelia Meadows. An additional
north/south connection is anticipated
outside of the project area connecting
Hamburg Avenue to Berres Ridge.
Internal circulation is anticipated
within the proposed developments.
Multimodal connections are illustrated
in purple dashed lines. Overall
multimodal connectivity is desired
along major thoroughfares, with the
goal of connecting neighborhoods to
community destinations, including
Grand Prairie Park. A future greenway
is desired along the low-lying green
corridor in the northeast area of the
project area, with a potential grade
separated pedestrian crossing into
Grand Prairie Park. An additional grade
separated pedestrian crossing is
identified at the center of the project
area across Cedar Avenue.
(Note that at the time of this study, the City
of Lakeville is undergoing a Parks System
Master Plan Update which may effect some
of the planned connections.)
0 0.1 0.2 Miles ¯Site Boundary
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Robin Hutcheson
Cedar Avenue Market Study Land Use Concept
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Amelia Meadows
232 Units
Cedar Hills Addition
344 Units
Cedar Creek Villas
66 Units
Berres Ridge
34 Units
Voyager Farms
154 Units
Glacier Creek
39 Units
Reserve at
Cedar Creek
48 Units
Single-family/
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Townhomes
32 AC
Single-family/
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Townhomes
18 AC
Single-Family/
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Townhomes
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Commercial/
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Future
Extension
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(location approximate)
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Single-family/Detached Townhomes (2.5 to 6 du/ac)
Attached Townhomes/Twinhomes (6-9 du/ac)
Apartments (18-32 du/ac)
Commercial/Office
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Figure 5. Small Area Plan
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 10
0 0.1 0.2 Miles ¯Site Boundary
Municipal Boundary
Stream
Wetland
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Future County Highway
contour_2f_3m
Robin Hutcheson
Cedar Avenue Market Study Land Use Concept
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Amelia Meadows
232 Units
Cedar Hills Addition
344 Units
Cedar Creek Villas
66 Units
Berres Ridge
34 Units
Voyager Farms
154 Units
Glacier Creek
39 Units
Reserve at
Cedar Creek
48 Units
Single-family/
Detached
Townhomes
32 AC
Single-family/
Detached
Townhomes
18 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
43 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
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Detached
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45 AC
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Detached
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Apartments
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9 AC
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5 AC
Commercial/
Office
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Commercial/
Office
13 AC
Future
Extension
Possible Grade
Separated Ped
Crossing
Possible Grade
Separated Ped
Crossing
Neighborhood
Park
Gas Pipeline Easement
(location approximate)
Transitional
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Office
3 AC
NLegend
Existing Road
Planned Road
Multimodal Connection
Existing Green Space Corridor
Transportation Nodes
Single-family/Detached Townhomes (2.5 to 6 du/ac)
Attached Townhomes/Twinhomes (6-9 du/ac)
Apartments (18-32 du/ac)
Commercial/Office
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Land Use
The proposed land use scenarios build upon the previously established development framework, prioritizing
adaptability to accommodate a range of future growth patterns. Rather than concentrating density in isolated pockets,
the plan envisions a thoughtful distribution of residential and commercial uses throughout the project area. This
approach encourages a vibrant mix of housing types and commercial amenities, fostering a more integrated and
dynamic community environment.
Preservation of existing green space corridors is a key principle, ensuring that new developments not only respect
but actively enhance these ecological assets. By positioning buildings and infrastructure in harmony with natural
features, the plan seeks to maintain
critical habitats, support stormwater
management, and offer residents
direct access to recreational open
spaces. Developments adjacent to
these corridors are encouraged to
incorporate pedestrian and bicycle
pathways, further strengthening
multimodal connections and
encouraging active lifestyles.
Higher density residential housing
is strategically situated near major
intersections and commercial nodes
to support walkability, increase
accessibility to services, and promote
efficient use of transportation
networks. This placement allows
residents to easily access shops,
offices, and public transit options,
reducing reliance on personal vehicles
and supporting sustainable mobility.
The inclusion of a neighborhood park
on the east side of the project area
provides a central gathering place
for community activities, recreation,
and social interaction. The park’s
location is designed to maximize
accessibility for nearby residents while
complementing the broader network
of green spaces and multimodal
connections envisioned for the
corridor. Collectively, these strategies
aim to create a well-balanced, resilient,
and inclusive neighborhood that
aligns with the broader goals of the
Cedar Avenue Corridor and the City of
Lakeville’s long-term vision.
Figure 5. Small Area Plan
City of Lakeville | Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan 11
0 0.1 0.2 Miles ¯Site Boundary
Municipal Boundary
Stream
Wetland
Park
Future County Highway
contour_2f_3m
Robin Hutcheson
Cedar Avenue Market Study Land Use Concept
Attached
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Attached
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Twinhomes
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Twinhomes
12 AC
Attached
Townhomes/
Twinhomes
24 AC Attached
Townhomes/
Twinhomes
22 AC
Attached
Townhomes/
Twinhomes
60 AC
Attached
Townhomes/
Twinhomes
15 AC
Amelia Meadows
232 Units
Cedar Hills Addition
344 Units
Cedar Creek Villas
66 Units
Berres Ridge
34 Units
Voyager Farms
154 Units
Glacier Creek
39 Units
Reserve at
Cedar Creek
48 Units
Single-family/
Detached
Townhomes
32 AC
Single-family/
Detached
Townhomes
18 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
43 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
28 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
45 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
16 AC
Single-family/
Detached
Townhomes
76 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
55 AC
Single-Family/
Detached
Townhomes
100 AC
Apartments
8 AC
Apartments
5 AC
Apartments
10 AC
Apartments
6 AC
Apartments
9 AC
Apartments
9 AC
Apartments
5 AC
Commercial/
Office
14 AC
Commercial/
Office
13 AC
Future
Extension
Possible Grade
Separated Ped
Crossing
Possible Grade
Separated Ped
Crossing
Neighborhood
Park
Gas Pipeline Easement
(location approximate)
Transitional
Zone
Transitional
Zone
Commercial/
Office
3 AC
NLegend
Existing Road
Planned Road
Multimodal Connection
Existing Green Space Corridor
Transportation Nodes
Single-family/Detached Townhomes (2.5 to 6 du/ac)
Attached Townhomes/Twinhomes (6-9 du/ac)
Apartments (18-32 du/ac)
Commercial/Office
Shoreland Boundaries
C
e
d
a
r
A
v
e
C
e
d
a
r
A
v
e
1 9 0 t h S t W
Fu t u r e 1 9 5 t h S t W
2 0 0 t h S t W
1 8 5 t h S t W
G r a n d P r a i r i e P a r k
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
A
v
e
Figure 6. Development Phasing Plan
Phasing
Due to the presence of existing utilities, it is anticipated that initial development will take place in the southeast portion
of the project area. Subsequent phases of growth are expected to progress northward, then expand west, and finally
extend down to the south as illustrated in Figure 6. This sequencing leverages available infrastructure to facilitate
efficient development and supports the phased implementation of the Small Area Plan.
Phase 2
Phase 3
Phase 1
Conclusion
The Small Area Plan for the
Cedar Avenue Corridor presents
a comprehensive and forward-
thinking framework that balances
growth, mobility, and environmental
stewardship. By integrating
flexible land use strategies, robust
transportation networks, and
enhanced multimodal connections,
the plan aims to accommodate future
development while preserving the
area’s natural assets and fostering a
vibrant community. Key principles such
as the distribution of diverse housing
and commercial options, the creation
of accessible public spaces, and the
reinforcement of greenway corridors
ensure that the evolving neighborhood
remains resilient, inclusive, and
sustainable. As the City of Lakeville
continues to refine its vision through
ongoing initiatives and future planning
work, this plan provides a strong
foundation for achieving a
well-connected and thriving corridor
for current and future residents.
Market Analysis for the
Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 2
Market Analysis for Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Purpose
Provide market analytics component to guide a larger planning and
land-use analysis for an undeveloped area on the Cedar Avenue
corridor
Overall Methodology
Site analysis
Demographic and economic
analysis
Review of competitive market
Forecasts of demand
o Based on demographic and
economic projections
o Calibrated with recent market
trends
Summary of findings and
recommendations
Considered Uses
Single-family homes
Townhomes and twinhomes
Multifamily apartment buildings
Restaurant and retail space
Other commercial land uses
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 3
Market Analysis Methodology Summary
Summary of Demand Estimate Methodology Sources of Data
Residential Demand 1.Use household forecasts from ESRI and Metropolitan Council to
forecast demand from new households.
Use existing rental rates to estimate split between for-sale and rental.
Use turnover rates to estimate demand from existing households.
Use building permits and recent sales to estimate the demand for
single-family versus attached units.
Calibrate with absorption from market analysis and with other
estimates.
Project forward next 10 years using population, household, and
employment assumptions from the Metropolitan Council.
•US Census
•HUD and City of
Lakeville (building
permits)
•ESRI
•Metropolitan Council
•Costar
•Minneapolis Area
Association of Realtors
•Fieldwork, interviews,
and other primary
research
Commercial Demand 1.Understand strengths and challenges for commercial uses at the site
Use consumer expenditure and employment projections to estimate
increase in demand for retail and office space.
Use site analysis, sales tax data, and existing commercial space to
estimate amount capturable by the site.
Calibrate with findings from the commercial market analyses.
Project forward next 10 year using population, household, and
employment assumptions from the Metropolitan Council.
•City of Lakeville
•US Census
•ESRI
•Metropolitan Council
•Costar
•Fieldwork and other
primary research
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 4
Demand Estimates for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Process
Development Densities
from Market Analysis*2025-2030 2030-2040
Single-Family
Homes and
Detached
Townhomes
3.0 units per
acre
350 – 400 units
115.0 – 135.0 acres
700 – 800 units
230.0 – 270.0 acres
Attached
Townhomes and
Twinhomes
6.0 units per
acre
100 – 130 units
16.0 – 22.0 acres
200 – 300 units
33.0 – 50.0 acres
Apartments 25.0 units per
acre
250 – 300 units
10.0 – 12.0 acres
500 – 600 units
20.0 – 24.0 acres
Restaurant
and
Retail
10,000 sq. ft. per acre 8,000 – 12,000 sq. ft.
1.0 – 1.5 acres
0 – 50,000 sq. ft.
0.0 – 5.0 acres
Office and Medical
Office
10,000 sq. ft. per acre 0 – 15,000 sq. ft.
0.0 – 1.5 acres
0 – 30,000 sq. ft.
0.0 – 3.0 acres
* These are typical densities of new developments in the City of Lakeville and
are used to estimate absorption of land at the small area.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 5
Preliminary Findings
Focus initial development on single family residential projects
closer to but not immediately adjacent to Cedar Avenue
Cluster higher-density apartments and townhome
developments nearer to major intersections
As housing affordability continues to drive household
decisions, provide flexibility to pivot to more dense housing
option—both for-sale and rental
Set aside some parcels immediately adjacent to major
intersections for retail development—especially the 185th
Street intersection
Carefully consider the specifics of the planned 185th Street
extension into Farmington. This roadway will become critical
in determining how traffic flows through the area and the
overall commercial opportunity of these sites
Plan for total buildout of area to be greater than 15 years
Take opportunity to develop trail and park system throughout
the area—leverage connectivity to the new Grand Prairie
Park
Guidance for Small Area Planning Process
Residential
Overall, the site would work well for residential development
Absorption of single-family homes/townhomes in Lakeville
has been steady despite market swings, interest rate spikes,
etc.
Several new rental projects have been built in the Lakeville
market in recent years, increasing overall supply, but
absorption has been strong
Restaurant and Retail
Based on traffic counts and site characteristics, retail would
work well at parcels immediately adjacent Cedar Avenue
However, the site currently lacks the east-west connections
that would drive significant retail development in the study
area
Office, Medical Office, and Industrial
General office development will continue to be slow; but there
may be opportunities for medical office development in the
study area
Key Findings from Market Analysis
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 6
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study Area
Site Analysis: Cedar Avenue Study Area Defined
The red boundary
marks the study area in
the City of Lakeville
The area includes
about 950 acres
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Site Analysis: Traffic Counts in and near Lakeville
Cedar Avenue has about 22,000
vehicles per day through the
study area
There are intersections carrying
existing vehicle traffic on Cedar
Avenue at:
150th Street (CSAH 42)
160th Street (CSAH 60)
Dodd Boulevard
179th Street (CSAH 9)
202nd Street/Lakeville
Boulevard (CSAH 50)
215th Street (CSAH 70)
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Site Analysis: Traffic Counts
in and near the Study Area
Traffic counts east-west through
the study area are limited
185th Street: 1,300
vehicles per day
190th Street: 300-600
vehicles per day
200th Street: 500-2,400
vehicles per day
Traffic counts through this area
will evolve as road connections
are made further east of the
study area and as development
occurs
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 10
Site Analysis
Strengths
Large, vacant parcels create open
opportunity for development, with
potential create road network to
optimize future development
Cedar Avenue provides excellent
connectivity north to Apple Valley and
the central Twin Cities area
New housing growth and commercial
development already on the edge of
the development
Close to strong retail districts at
Cedar Avenue and Dodd Boulevard
and farther north along Cedar Avenue
in Apple Valley
Employment districts south of the site
provides daytime employment that is
attractive to commercial uses
Weaknesses
In the short term, there is no key east-
west thoroughfare to attract commercial
development
Connections to key interchanges on
Interstate 35 (202nd Street (CSAH 50),
185th Street, and 215th Street (CSAH
70)) east of the study area are not
simple and can be challenging to
navigate. There is no one east-west
road funneling traffic to the interstate
Mass of retail to the north near Cedar
Avenue and CSAH 42 in Apple Valley
and northeast at Pilot Knob Road and
160th Street and may limit demand in
the study area
Over the long term, the large industrial
district and airport to the south may
create a psychological barrier to
developing residential markets south of
the industrial district
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 11
Demographics: Drive-Time Rings around the Cedar Avenue Study Area
Primary market area for residential
development is generally defined as the
City of Lakeville
It is assumed that almost all demand for
housing will come from forecasted
growth and turnover in the City of
Lakeville
For retail and other commercial
demand, the trade area is assumed to
be the 10-minute drivetime area around
the study area
For the retail and commercial analysis,
it is assumed development at the study
area will capture a portion of the growth
occurring in this 10-minute drivetime
area
HWY 55 + Jacob Ave
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 12
Demographics: Population and Population Growth
Lakeville is seeing strong
population growth
The population of the Lakeville
is approximately 78,000,
according to ESRI**, a national
demographics firm used by
real estate developer and
users
The rate of growth for the City
of Lakeville and the drivetime
areas exceed growth rates in
Dakota County, the Twin Cities
MSA*, and the nation as a
whole
The annual growth rate over
the next five years is projected
to slow considerably,
compared to the previous 15
years
1 Population and Population Growth
*The Census-defined Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) consists of Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Anoka,
Washington, Scott, Wright, Carver, Sherburne, Chisago, Isanti, Le Sueur, Mille Lacs counties in Minnesota and St. Croix and Pierce
counties in Wisconsin.
**This analysis uses ESRI data because it is forecasted for smaller areas and geographies (e.g., drivetime areas). It also provides 5-
year forecasts by demographic characteristics (e.g., age and income). Further, this data source is used by developers and private
sector decision makers for site selection.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 13
Demographics: Households and Household Growth
Household growth is strong
in Lakeville
The City of Lakeville has
approximately 27,000
households, based on ESRI
estimates
As with population,
household growth in the city
and the drivetime areas is
projected to exceed the
comparison areas
The annual household
growth rate is projected to
slow in the next five years,
compared to the previous
15-year period
2 Households and Household Growth
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 14
Demographics: Long-Term Population, Household, and Employment
Projections
The long-term projections show
continued growth in Lakeville but
rates of growth slowing
Metropolitan Council has
preliminary estimates available
for projected population,
households, and employment,
2020 to 2050
(Note that these forecasts are
more conservative than the ESRI
forecasts for the current decade)
Growth rates for both population
and households are projected to
slow somewhat between 2030
and 2050, according to the
Metropolitan Council
Demand forecasts for residential
and commercial uses in this
analysis account for this
projected slow down
3 Long-Term Population, Household, and Employment Projections
Population
Lakeville 69,490 79,900 84,700 89,500 10,410 4,800 4,800 1.4%0.6%0.6%
Dakota County 439,882 468,828 489,346 524,186 28,946 20,518 34,840 0.6%0.4%0.7%
Seven-County Metro Area 3,163,100 3,374,100 3,559,300 3,814,000 211,000 185,200 254,700 0.6%0.5%0.7%
Households
Lakeville 23,265 28,100 31,000 33,100 4,835 2,900 2,100 1.9%1.0%0.7%
Dakota County 168,008 184,913 198,226 213,600 16,905 13,313 15,374 1.0%0.7%0.7%
Seven-County Metro Area 1,239,525 1,357,300 1,454,300 1,563,300 117,775 97,000 109,000 0.9%0.7%0.7%
Employment
Lakeville 15,888 23,100 25,200 29,900 7,212 2,100 4,700 3.8%0.9%1.7%
Dakota County 166,945 202,433 217,393 244,283 35,488 14,960 26,890 1.9%0.7%1.2%
Seven-County Metro Area 1,543,400 1,814,100 1,901,400 2,061,700 270,700 87,300 160,300 1.6%0.5%0.8%
* Imagine 2050 local forecasts approved February 2025
Source: Metropolitan Council; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 15
Demographics: Daytime Employment
The employment base in Lakeville
contributes to residential and commercial
demand
Because many workers who reside in
Lakeville commute outside of the city, the
daytime population shrinks to about 61,000
people
Based on US Census Data from 2022 (not
shown on chart):
14,185 workers commute into the city
32,338 residents commute out of the
city
4,470 residents both work and live in
Lakeville
Workers who commute into Lakeville provide
additional retail spending
These workers are also potential residents
who may consider homes in Lakeville to be
closer to their jobs
4 Daytime Population, 2025
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 16
Demographics: Median Household Income
Incomes are high in the City of Lakeville and
increasing relative to inflation
Median household income in the City of Lakeville
is about $133,000—33% higher than the median
for the Metro MSA
ESRI is forecasting 2.4% inflation over the 2025-
2030 period and provide forecasts without
adjustments for inflation—so growth below 2.4%
means that incomes are actually declining
relative to inflation
The projected annual growth rates for the City of
Lakeville and the 5- and 10-minute drivetime
areas meet or exceed this projected inflation—
2.4% to 2.8%
This forecasts suggests that income growth in
the market is real growth
Dakota County and the Metro MSA, however,
are projected to see declines in income relative
to inflation
Higher base incomes and income growth are
attractive to housing and commercial developers
5. Median Household Income, 2025
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLCSee Figure A.1 for detail for these figures
6. Projected Annual Growth in Median Household Income, 2025-2030
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 17
Demographics: Projected Household Growth by Age of Householder in the
City of Lakeville, 2025 to 2030
Baby Boomers (Age 65 plus) will continue to drive
household growth
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
7. Projected Household Growth by Age of Householder,
City of Lakeville, 2025 to 2030
8. Projected Household Growth by Income of Householder,
City of Lakeville, 2025 to 2030
Overall shift in growth to higher income groups—Millennials
hitting higher income earning years and Baby Boomers with
higher investment incomes
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 18
Demographics: Household Rental Rates and Housing Turnover for
Homeowners and Renters in the City of Lakeville
The household rental rate in Lakeville is half the rate for
the Minneapolis-St. Paul market as a whole
26% of homeowners and 68% of renters moved into their
homes within the last five years
This data is used to determine housing demand from
turnover within existing households
9 Household Rental Rates in Lakeville, 2023
12.2%
24.6%29.1%
10 Move-In Year for Households in Lakeville, 2023
Source: American Community Survey, US Census Bureau; ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 19
Demographics: Growth in Consumer Expenditure in Retail Categories
Retail expenditure is projected to
grow by about $37 million in the 10-
Minute Drivetime Area—about 0.6%
per year when adjusted for inflation
This growth is driven by new
households in the market and real
income growth
Grocery stores and restaurant
categories are projected to see the
highest increases in consumer
spending
These categories make up the
largest percentage of overall
spending
Additionally, groceries and
restaurants tend to be less impacted
by online competition, so these
categories have seen more growth
in commercial real estate demand
11 Forecasted Growth in Consumer Spending in the 10-Min Drivetime Area, 2025-2030
* Data is shown in 2024 Dollars, adjusted from ESRI projection. ESRI assumes 2.4% inflation.
Source: US Census Bureau; ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 20
Demographics: Employment by Industry
Compared to the Seven-
County Metro Area, the City
of Lakeville has a higher
percentage of Construction,
Manufacturing, Retail Trade,
Educational Service, and
Accommodation and Food
Service jobs
These types of jobs are
more likely to be located at
retail and industrial real
estate and less likely to be
located in office space
12 Distribution of Employment for the City of Lakeville and the Metro Area, 2024
Notes:
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 21
Building Permits: Lakeville is averaging 835 housing unit permits per year
since 2018, although production has slowed significantly in the last year
602 945 1,223 1,126 714 713 523
Single-Family Homes 446 521 639 527 325 309 285
Detached Townhomes 32 35 103 136 62 58 100
Townhomes 49 64 73 73 160 94 49
Apartment Units 75 325 408 390 167 252 89
Source: City of Lakeville; LOCi Consulting LLC
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Total Housing Units
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 22
For-Sale Residential Market: With rising interest rates, existing home sales have
cooled Lakeville, driven by interest rate increases and following national trends
1,102
Source: Multiple Listing Service; LOCi Consulting LLC
1,792 2,034 1,807 1,793
1,079 1,102
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Multiple Listing Service; LOCi Consulting LLC
$370,999 $397,048 $440,000 $485,000 $485,000 $494,117
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: Multiple Listing Service; LOCi Consulting LLC
54
42
24 31
46 54
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 23
For-Sale Residential Market: Select Actively Marketing Single-Family
Developments in Lakeville
Source: MLS, websites, interviews,
LOCi Consulting LLC
Development Units Square
Footage
Price Points Estimated Units per Acre
Cedar Hills –
Discovery Collection
Single-Family Homes
2020
139 (85 sold)2,185 – 2,706 $559,810 - 612,550 1.3
(78-acre development)
Glacier Creek, 2nd 4th
and 5th Additions
Single-Family Homes
2021
99 (77 Sold)2,984 - 3,921 $635,529 - 799,900 3.0
(32-acre development)
Berres Ridge, 7th
8th and 9th Additions
Single-Family Homes
2020
88 (44 Sold)2,377 – 4,801 $548,900 – 774,900 2.1
(42-acre development)
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 24
For-Sale Residential Market: Select Actively Marketing Townhome
Developments in Lakeville
Source: MLS, websites, interviews,
LOCi Consulting LLC
Development Units Square
Footage
Price Points Estimated Units per Acre
Cedar Hills – Villa
Collection
Detached Townhomes
2020
205 (85
sold)
1,783 – 1,968 $498,685 - 579,780 2.6
(76-acre development—
estimated as the gross acreage
for the development)
Voyageur Farms
Detached Townhomes
2022
90 (24 sold)1,828 – 2,502 $439,900 – 570,000 2.4
(38-acre development)
Brookshire
Side-by-Side
Townhomes
2022
71 (45 Sold)1,665 – 1,894 $349,000 – 422,000 7.1
(10-acre development)
Cordelia, 2nd
Addition
Side-by-Side
Townhomes
2023
91 (61 Sold)1,883 – 2,011 $363,000 – 450,000 7.5
(12-acre development)
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 25
Rental Market: New rental product developed in the market has pushed
the vacancy rate above 5%, but market-rate rents are still seeing growth
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
* Includes estimates for all market-rate units in Lakeville, regardless of size of unit type.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 26
Rental Market: Absorption of rental units has remained strong in Lakeville
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
The Lakeville rental market has seen an average rental unit absorption of about 200
units per year since 2018 (about 50 units per quarter)
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 27
Rental Market: Recently Constructed Rental in Lakeville—Since 2018
Source: Websites, interviews, Costar,
LOCi Consulting LLC
Development Year
Built
Units Vacancies Square
Footages
Rents Estimated Units per
Acre
Notes
Authentix Lakeville
11656 207th St W
2023 252 10 544 – 1,348 $1,303 – 2,933 20.9
(12.0-acre development)
Townhome-style,
rental development
Livery Modern Apts.
5076 161st St W
2022 204 4 868 – 1,505 $1,775 – 2,851 19.2
(10.7-acre development)
Townhome-style,
rental development
Arris Apartments
10805 173rd St W
2021 197 7 515 – 1,333 $1,353 – 2,637 25.3
(7.8-acre development)
Four-story apartment
building
Northlake Lofts
18400 Orchard Trail
2022 208 6 515 – 1,580 $1,414 – 2,762 20.6
(10.0-acre development)
Four-story apartment
building
The Springs at
Lakeville
17400 Glacier Way
2020 260 11 662 – 1,436 $1,609 - 2,629 16.8
(15.5-acre development)
Townhome-style,
rental development
The Edison at Spirit
5181 161st St
2019 160 0 752 – 1,337 $1,534 – 1,960 30.8
(5.2-acre development)
Four-story apartment
building
Lakeside Flats
16255 Kenyon Ave
2018 120 6 588 – 1,679 $1,415 – 2,335 29.5
(4.2-acre development)
Three-story
apartment building
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 28
Residential Market: Themes from Interviews and Discussions
Source: Interviews, LOCi Consulting LLC
For Sale Market
2024 and 2025 have been much slower than 2022 and 2023—because of higher
interest rates—but sales seem to be trending up in the last few months
A significant portion of townhome demand is driven by investors—depending on the
homeowner association agreements, the number of investor buyers is often capped
Buyers with contingent sales have become much more common in the last two years
Homebuyers frequently say they want larger lot sizes, but lot size is not a critical
issue–brokers said they believe most buyers will be willing to go smaller on lot size to
keep the overall cost lower
There is strong demand from 1st and 2nd generation immigrant families in Lakeville
The strong school district(s) are a strong selling point for Lakeville
Rental Market
Lease up of new projects is going well—managers are still seeing strong demand
Renters like the variety of rental types offered in Lakeville, with both apartment
buildings and townhome style rentals
Renters are coming from all over the Twin Cities and a wide variety of new
household formations, middle-aged and young senior renters, and change-of life-
renters
* Informal interviews were completed as a part of the data gathering process. Realtor in sales offices and leasing
agents in rental offices were interviewed. All projects are currently marketing in Lakeville near the study area.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 29
Retail Real Estate Market: Vacancy rates for retail are much lower than the
Metro Area and absorption over the last 10 years has been strong
Lakeville’s retail vacancy rate was 0.5% in 2nd quarter of 2025
(versus 2.7% for the Minneapolis Market)
The retail market in Lakeville has seen average annual absorption*
of over 50,000 square feet of space per year (2018-2025 Q2)
20 Average Lease and Vacancy Rates for Retail Space in Lakeville
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025.. Rents are average for all lease types.
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
21 Net Quarterly Absorption for Retail Space in Lakeville
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
* Absorption is the amount of new or vacant space moved into and occupied by users over a
period of time. Positive absorption means new users are moving to the market and occupying
new and vacant spaces. Negative absorption most likely results in vacant spaces.
General Merchandisers, Grocers, and
Pharmacies in the Lakeville Area
Cedar Avenue Study Area
Walgreens
Lunds & Byerly’s
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 31
Retail Real Estate Market: New Construction in Lakeville since 2018
Development Year Built Square
Footage
Acreage Floor Area
Ratio
20681 Keokuk Ave – Taco Bell 2024 2,867 1.76 0.04
17401 Dodd Blvd – New Creations Child Care and
Learning Center
2023 23.842 1.31 0.14
7200 Lakeville Blvd – Apple Collision and Glass 2022 61,674 10.28 0.13
20170 Iberia Avenue – Tires Plus 2021 6,500 1.08 0.14
18477 Kenrick Ave – Raising Cane’s 2021 3,365 1.49 0.08
Source: City of Lakeville, Costar, Dakota County GIS,
websites, interviews, LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 32
Retail Real Estate Market: New Construction in Lakeville since 2018
(Continued)
Development Year Built Square
Footage
Acreage Floor Area
Ratio
20880 Keokuk Ave – Strip Mall (Emporium Room)2021 19,611 2.74 0.16
17380 Cedar Ave – Hy-Vee Fast & Fresh 2019 7,830 3.90 0.05
11542 207th St – ALDI 2018 22,261 2.52 0.20
9139 202nd St – O’Reilly Auto Parts 2018 7,569 1.01 0.17
19925 Idealic Ave – Advanced Oral Surgery 2018 4,164 0.75 .013
Source: City of Lakeville, Costar, Dakota County GIS,
websites, interviews, LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 33
Office Real Estate Market: Vacancy rates are lower than the metro and
positive office space absorption since 2020 (driven mostly by medical office)
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025.. Rents are average for gross lease types.
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
* Data is Q1 2018 to Q2 2025
Source: CoStar; LOCi Consulting LLC
Lakeville’s office vacancy rate was 5.2% in 2nd quarter of 2025
(versus 11.6% for the Minneapolis Market)
The Lakeville office market has seen absorption* of about 20,000-
square feet per year since 2018, although the last year (2024 Q2
to 2025 Q2) saw negative absorption
* Absorption is the amount of new or vacant space moved into and occupied by users over a
period of time. Positive absorption means new users are moving to the market and occupying
new and vacant spaces. Negative absorption most likely results in vacant spaces.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 34
Office Real Estate Market: New Office Constructed in Lakeville since
2018 – all but one development is medical office
Development Year Built Square
Footage
Acreage Floor Area
Ratio
18465 Orchard Trail – Lakeville Specialty Center 2022 107,036 4.24 0.58
17489 Dodd Blvd – Allina Health Lakeville North
Clinic
2022 68,356 4.47 0.35
17210 Kenyon Ave – Summit Orthopedics 2021 25,600 1.72 0.34
18484 Kachina Ct – Park Nicollet Clinic 2019 28,128 4.63 0.14
21088 Keswick Loop – Compeer Financial 2018 30,295 3.40 0.20
Source: City of Lakeville, Costar, Dakota County GIS,
websites, interviews, LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 35
Planned and Pending Developments in Lakeville
Heritage Commons 10th Addition has received pre-plat
approval for the construction of two convenience
restaurants - Chipotle and a drive-thru coffee shop, located
at 202nd Street and Dodd Boulevard
Oppidan is proposing the 13-acre Marketplace at Cedar
with nine commercial lots located at the SE corner of
Cedar Avenue (CSAH 23) and 179th Street (CSAH 9).
Marketed tenants include ALDI, Taco Bell, Valvoline, and a
credit union. The project received preliminary plat approval
by the City Council
MSP Pilot Knob, LLC has proposed the development of a
9,205 square-foot commercial space to be located within
the Spirit of Brandtjen Farm commercial development for
Grow Pediatrics. The project has not received final council
approval
Heritage Commons 9th Addition has received final plat
approval for the development of a Chase Bank
Commercial
Single-Family
539 total available single-family lots as of June 30, 2025
259 total single-family lots preliminary platted, pending final
plat
Townhomes
616 total available townhome lots as of June 30, 2025
250 townhome lots preliminary platted, pending final plat
Apartments
Crown LMN, LLC been approved to develop two market-
rate, four story multi-family apartment buildings with 182
units on just under 10 acres located north of 210th Street
(CSAH 70) and west of Keokuk Avenue (This project may
not move forward)
Ron Clark Construction has received final plat approval by
the City Council for a development to be known as Kenyon
Green—with 15 attached townhomes and a 49-unit multi-
family apartment building on a 6.5-acre parcel
Residential
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 36
Appendix
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 37
A.1 Median Household Income
Market Analysis for Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Less than $15,000 147 289 255 282 444 501 686
$15,000-$24,999 114 209 248 249 469 501 739
$25,000-$34,999 99 262 268 235 388 503 846
$35,000-$49,999 300 858 958 643 938 1,089 1,362
$50,000-$74,999 322 1,543 1,753 1,516 1,697 2,196 1,713
$75,000-$99,999 350 1,919 2,288 2,007 1,959 1,997 1,155
$100,000-$149,999 235 2,590 3,871 3,644 3,423 2,349 744
$150,000-$199,999 75 1,855 3,309 3,010 2,577 1,202 514
$200,000+28 1,742 4,028 4,219 3,559 1,426 393
Median HH Inc.$61,128 $107,258 $130,460 $137,297 $121,482 $86,722 $54,588
Minneapolis-St. Paul $53,317 $97,534 $119,053 $126,783 $112,459 $80,580 $52,412
CBSA
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Less than $15,000 143 250 211 251 300 438 790
$15,000-$24,999 99 174 172 193 312 423 742
$25,000-$34,999 84 201 197 159 245 420 831
$35,000-$49,999 282 730 757 541 676 931 1,477
$50,000-$74,999 327 1,396 1,476 1,376 1,332 2,178 2,075
$75,000-$99,999 375 1,815 2,032 2,013 1,680 2,114 1,525
$100,000-$149,999 270 2,700 3,505 3,633 3,016 2,702 1,044
$150,000-$199,999 89 2,224 3,345 3,447 2,623 1,568 864
$200,000+38 2,530 4,613 5,335 4,022 2,236 799
Median HH Inc.$66,838 $121,424 $145,999 $153,123 $139,550 $100,012 $62,376
Minneapolis-St. Paul $56,933 $107,563 $130,078 $140,611 $127,872 $93,170 $60,030
CBSA
Source: ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Age of Householder
Age of Householder
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 39
A3 Consumer Spending in Retail Categories In the PMA
Estimate Forecast Growth
2025 2030 2025-2030
Apparel and Accessories $131,952,021 $136,147,978 $4,195,957
Electronics $98,644,558 $101,637,838 $2,993,280
Pets $53,786,322 $55,381,732 $1,595,410
Toys $9,538,135 $9,832,874 $294,739
Sporting Goods $14,340,669 $14,807,825 $467,156
Books $6,332,023 $6,514,428 $182,405
Groceries $378,421,636 $389,942,505 $11,520,869
Restaurants $220,651,845 $227,693,334 $7,041,489
Liquor $36,035,529 $37,126,013 $1,090,484
Pharmacy $37,276,088 $38,321,474 $1,045,386
Furniture and Home Improvement $129,996,336 $133,973,377 $3,977,041
Household and Personal Care $75,548,333 $77,875,734 $2,327,401
Total $1,192,523,495 $1,229,255,113 $36,731,618
* Data is shown in 2025 Dollars, adjusted from ESRI projection. ESRI assumes 2.4% inflation.
Source: US Census Bureau; ESRI; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 40
A4 Est. Employment by Industry for the Metro Area and Lakeville, 2024
Number Pct.Number Pct.
Utilities 7,035 0%------
Construction 80,031 5%1,237 6%
Manufacturing 172,794 10%2,871 13%
Wholesale Trade 77,820 4%853 4%
Retail Trade 155,474 9%2,787 13%
Transportation and Warehousing 79,091 4%948 4%
Information 28,735 2%267 1%
Finance and Insurance 99,668 6%502 2%
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 27,103 2%317 1%
Professional and Technical Services 124,295 7%615 3%
Management of Companies 74,226 4%237 1%
Administrative and Waste Services 84,323 5%1,525 7%
Educational Services 137,938 8%2,369 11%
Health Care and Social Assistance 304,451 17%2,668 12%
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 35,946 2%659 3%
Accommodation and Food Services 135,106 8%2,319 11%
Other Services 56,525 3%856 4%
Public Administration 79,689 5%542 3%
Total 1,764,363 100%21,599 100%
Notes:
City of Lakeville
Utilities employment is not disclosed for the City of Lakeville.
Seven County Metro Area
Source: Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development; Quarterly Census of Employment and
Wages; Employment Outlook; LOCi Consulting LLC
Market Analysis for Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025
Households in 2025
Households in 2030
Projected growth of the market
Estimated percentage that will choose new for-sale housing
Units needed to meet demand from household growth in Lakeville
Estimated number of households that own in Lakeville in 2025
Pct. that will seek new for-sale housing between 2025 and 2030
Pct. that will choose new for-sale housing
Units needed to meet demand from turnover in PMA
Estimated demand from outside PMA
Total Demand for For-Sale Housing in Lakeville
Planned or pending lots in Lakeville
Units needed in Lakeville
Units needed in Lakeville
Source: LOCi Consulting LLC
23,442
26%
3%
150
1. Based on distribution of MLS listed new construction sold betw een 2020 and 2024.
Demand from For-Sale Housing Turnover in Lakeville
88%
1,916
28,873
2,182
Demand from Household Growth in Lakeville
26,691
Demand from Outside the PMA
5%
2,175
383 128
Demand in Lakeville by Housing Type 1 Single-Family Townhomes
75%25%
511
Planned and Pending Single-Family and Townhome Lots
1,664
Market Analysis for Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025
Households in 2025
Households in 2030
Projected growth of the market
Estimated percentage that will choose new rental housing
Units needed to meet demand from household growth in Lakeville
Estimated number of households that rent in Lakeville in 2024
Pct. that will seek new rental housing between 2025 and 2030
Pct. that will choose new rental housing
Units needed to meet demand from turnover in PMA
Planned or pending rental units
Total Demand for For-Sale Housing in Lakeville
Estimated demand from outside PMA
Total Demand for For-Sale Housing in Lakeville
Source: LOCi Consulting LLC
26,691
Demand from Household Growth in Lakeville
69%
28,873
2,182
12%
266
Demand from For-Sale Housing Turnover in Lakeville
3,249
10%
223
Demand from Outside the PMA
Planned and Pending Rental Units
230
258
5%
272
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 43
A7 Retail Space Demand in the Growth Area, 2025-2030
Increase in Consumer Demand in 2025 Dollars, 2025 to 2030
Percent of Consumer Demand Spent at Brick and Mortar Retail
Demand from Brick-and-Mortar Retail in the Market
Times Percentage Capturable by the Retail Node
Equals Consumer Demand for Retail Sales in the Market
Divided by Average Sales per Square Foot $400 -$600
Equals Demand for New Retail Space in the Retail Node 7,800 -11,700
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 44
A.8 Medical Office Space Demand in the Study Area, 2025-2030
Estimated Base of Medial Office Employment, Seven County Metro Area, 2023
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Total
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 45
Data Resources and Study Limitations
The data in this market analysis are compiled from a variety of
sources, including interviews with city officials, property
managers, and real estate salespeople, along with secondary
demographic, economic, and competitive resources. Sources are
identified in the tables and figures.
LOCi Consulting believes that these sources are reliable.
However, there is no way to authenticate this data and
information. LOCi Consulting does not guarantee the data and
assumes no liability for any errors in fact, analysis, or judgement.
The data in this analysis includes the most recent information
available at the time of this analysis.
The findings, conclusions, and recommendations in this demand
analysis are based on the best judgements and analysis at the
time of the study. LOCi Consulting makes no guarantees or
assurances that the projections or conclusions will be realized as
stated.
Market Analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Planning Study
Prepared for TKDA and the City of Lakeville
September 9, 2025 46
Contact Information:
Grant Martin
Principal
LOCi Consulting LLC
651-888-8464
grant@lociconsult.com
https://www.lociconsult.com/
Services:
•Market studies
•Demographic analysis
•Customer segmentation
•Market identification
•Market sizing
•Competitive analysis
•Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
and site selection
•Data analytics
Thank you!
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-1
Cedar Avenue Land Use &
Market Analysis Study
Appendix B: Land Use Analysis
DRAFT January 2026
Prepared by
Introduction
An analysis of past and current land use policy, recent de-
velopments, and future needs was completed to inform
land use recommendations within Cedar Avenue Small
Area Plan. Outcomes of each of these analyses are high-
lighted within this appendix to provide additional context
and background. Additionally, considerations for how this
analysis can be used within future policy updates and the
2050 Comprehensive Plan are provided.
Existing Framework
A review of existing land use policy and recent devel-
opment activity established an existing framework and
understanding for the small area plan to be built upon.
2040 Comprehensive Plan
Lakeville Thrive!, the 2040 Comprehensive Land Use
Plan, has guided Lakeville’s development decisions since
its adoption in October of 2019. The plan established
growth management and land use goals and policies
that support fiscally responsible growth that aligns with
community needs and character. The future land use
plan utilizes 16 land use categories to guide development
decision throughout the community.
The Cedar Avenue small area plan study area is included
within the Cedar Corridor special planning area. At the
time of the plan’s development the Red Line Bus Rapid
Transit Corridor (BRT) was planned for extension along
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-2
Cedar Avenue. The Cedar Corridor was analyzed for transit-oriented development at a minimum average
density of 8.0 dwelling units per acre to support the transit operations. Four land use categories were used
within the small area plan study area:
Table 1. 2040 Comprehensive Plan Land Use Categories
Land Use Density
(du/ac)Anticipated Uss Acres % of Area
Low to Medium
Density 4.0-5.0 Single family, two family, detached
townhouses 557 64%
Medium to High
Density 5.0-9.0
Detached townhouse, quad, row/
back-to-back attached townhous-
es
119 14%
Corridor Mixed
Use 26.0-45.0 High density residential, senior
housing, commercial, office 119 14%
A station was planned at Cedar Avenue and 195th Street, located within the study area. Land within a ½ mile
of the transit station was guided to support the development of 2,283 to 3,656 new dwelling units at a den-
sity range of 0.1 to 45.0 units per acre. The Corridor Mixed Use land use category was guided to support the
creation of 1 job per every 920 sf, resulting in a total job creation within the study area of 1,557 employees.
Table 2. 195th Street Transit Station Plan
Land Use Net
Acres
Density Dwelling Units
Min Max Min Max
Low Density Residential 1.0 0.1 3.0 1 3
Low to Medium Density 159.3
4.0
5.0 637 796
Medium to High Density 106.1 4.0 7.0 424 743
Corridor Mixed Use 47 26.0 45 1,221 2,114
Total 313.2 2,283 3,656
The extension of the Red Line BRT is no longer planned following Metropolitan Coun-
cil and Dakota County decisions, initiating the desire to explore land use opportuni-
ties and market realities through this small area plan.
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-3
Recent Development Context
While transportation context has changed, development surrounding the project area has continued. Ad-
jacent development has included a combination of single-family homes alongside detached and attached
townhomes, reflecting broader housing market trends and responding to Lakeville’s evolving demographic
and economic conditions. In recent years, the surrounding area has experienced steady housing develop-
ment and demand, supported by both traditional detached homes and higher-density, lower-maintenance
and more affordable housing options. These developments support the addition of 778 units near the study
area.
Table 3. Recent Development Context
Development Housing Types Total Units Net Density Gross Density
Voyager Farms Addition Detached townhomes 154 units 4.0 u/a 2.47 u/a
Glacier Creek 5th Addition Single-family homes 39 units 3.18 u/a 3.10 u/a
Ameila Meadows Single-family and at-
tached townhomes 232 units 3.88 u/a 3.15 u/a
Berres Ridge 9th Addition Single-family homes 34 units 2.6 u/a 1.95 u/a
Reserve at Cedar Creek Single-family homes 48 units 3.27 u/a 2.4 u/a
Cedar Creek Villas Addition Detached townhomes 66 units 3.13 u/a 2.20 u/a
Cedar Hills Addition Detached townhomes 205 units 3.11 u/a 2.16 u/a
Spatially, these new neighborhoods are concentrated near existing transportation corridors and utility
infrastructure extensions, enabling incremental and efficient expansion of the built environment. Their lo-
cation also places new residents in close proximity to emerging commercial areas, parks, and city services,
enhancing the overall accessibility and reinforcing development opportunities. Development to the south-
east of the study area supports the extension of city services into the study area, opening opportunities for
growth within the study area, moving from south to north on the east side of Cedar Avenue before crossing
over Cedar Avenue to support development on the west side.
As these developments take shape, they are beginning to define the character of the study area, transi-
tioning it from largely rural and low-density development patterns towards neighborhoods that support
neighborhood commercial uses while preserving existing natural corridors. The concentration of new
developments and growth opportunities underscores the need for coordinated planning across land use and
transportation networks to support safe, convenient, and equitable infrastructure and development.
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-4
Land Use Analysis
The land use analysis for the Cedar Avenue Small Area Plan was developed to establish a clear and data-in-
formed foundation for how this key growth area should evolve over time. The analysis combined insights
from the market study, recent development patterns, and the city’s adopted policy guidance to create a
land use framework that reflects current conditions while anticipating future opportunities. This approach
ensures that land use recommendations are grounded in local context, aligned with market realities, and
positioned to support strategic public investment.
This work comes at a pivotal time, as the city will soon begin its 2050 Comprehensive Plan update. The land
use analysis completed for the small area plan is intentionally designed to inform and complement this up-
coming effort. The framework, land use categories, and development are intended to serve as foundational
inputs and data points for the broader Comprehensive Plan. In particular, the analysis helps define land use
typologies that support investment within the study area and respond to the community’s long-term hous-
ing, employment, and commercial needs.
The Cedar Avenue study area is a significant growth area within the community, as one of the largest areas
positioned to accommodate new housing, commercial development, infrastructure extension, and public
and open spaces. With ongoing shifts in residential densities and evolving expectations for neighbor-
hood-serving commercial development, it is critical to understand the development capacity of the area
and how it contributes to Lakeville’s overall land use balance. Establishing this understanding ensures that
future development not only fits the study area context but also supports broader community goals related
to housing diversity, fiscal health, and sustainable infrastructure expansion.
The market analysis prepared as part of the study served as the basis for defining a set of land use typolo-
gies tailored to the study area. These typologies reflect both recent development patterns in Lakeville and
the projected market environment for the next 10 to 15 years. By grounding land use guidance in market
conditions, the analysis supports development that is realistic, financially feasible, and responsive to long-
term community needs.
A total of six land use typologies were used to build land use recommendations within the study area. These
categories provide a structured approach for evaluating development scenarios, calculating housing capaci-
ty, and identifying the infrastructure needed to support full build-out of the area.
Single-family homes
Density: 2.5 to 4.5 units/acre
Description: This typology reflects traditional detached housing on individual lots,
offering private yards, driveway access, and lower-density neighborhood character.
Detached townhomes
Density: 3.0 to 6.0 units/acre
Description: Detached townhomes provide a transition between single-family neigh-
borhoods and higher-density residential forms. These homes offer standalone units,
but at a slightly higher density and may incorporate shared maintenance or managed
common areas.
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-5
Twinhomes
Density: 4.0 to 7.0 units/acre
Description: Twinhomes include two attached units within a single structure,
blending moderate density living with a residential character similar to single-fami-
ly homes.
Attached townhomes
Density: 6.0 to 9.0 units/acre
Description: Attached townhomes offer a medium-density building typology, where
units share walls and have smaller individual yards.
Apartments
Density: 18.0 to 32.0 units/acre
Description: Apartments provide the highest-density residential option within the
study area, typically consisting of multi-story buildings with a mix of unit sizes and
shared amenities.
Commercial and office development
Description: Commercial and office developments accommodate retail service,
medical, and employment-oriented businesses that support both the study area
and the broader community.
Several key physical and environmental considerations also shaped the small area plan recommendations within
the study area. The construction of Grand Prairie Park introduces a major amenity that will serve as a regional
attraction and influence land values, development desirability and connections to outdoor recreation. Additionally,
the study area includes multiple green space corridors and natural drainageways that lay a critical role in storm-
water management. These natural features, combined with areas of challenging typography, represent important
constraints but also significant opportunities to integrate environmental systems into neighborhood design. Pre-
serving and enhancing these features will support both ecological function and community character as develop-
ment progresses.
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-6
Consumption estimates
The market analysis findings identified land use consumption estimates for the next 15 years. These estimates
were identified to align with the city’s 2050 household projections identified by the Metropolitan County and over-
all market trends and conditions. This analysis found that nearly 75 percent of the study area could be built out by
2040, with the remaining area assumed to be developed in following years. The timeline for this development was
not identified, because it is challenging to forecast accurate and defendable market conditions beyond 15 years.
Table 4. 2050 Forecasts
Forecast 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population 69,690 79,990 84,700 89,550
Households 23,265 28,100 31,000 33,100
Employment 15,888 23,100 25,200 29,900
To support further understanding of development potential and the relationship to various land use categories and
infrastructure planning, a development phasing plan was developed (Figure 6 of the study report). This phasing
aligns with the planned utility extension from the southeast in Amelia Meadows to the north. It also aligns with the
2050 forecasts, assuming that the market and development potential supports 59% of the city’s household growth
for the 2020 to 2030 and 2030 to 2040 growth periods.
The phasing plan was developed to identify the land use consumption need to support the development of a mix of
residential typologies to support housing forecasts. The following table outlines the total acres identified for the
land use typologies as grouped together in the small area plan by forecast period. The number of units identified
was calculated using an average density for each typology group. Additionally, the unit total and density calcula-
tions did not remove acreage for future infrastructure of service uses. It is recommended that further analysis is
completed during the Comprehensive Plan update.
Table 5. Land Use Consumption by Phase.
2025-2030
Total
Single-family and De-
tached townhomes
Attached townhomes
and Twinhomes Apartments
3 u/a 6 u/a 18 u/a
Acres 169 acres 135 acres 22 acres 12 acres
Household units 753 units 405 units 132 units 216 units
4.5 Average Net Density
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-7
2030 - 2040
Total
Single-family and De-
tached townhomes
Attached townhomes
and Twinhomes Apartments
3 u/a 6 u/a 18 u/a
Acres 344 acres 270 acres 50 acres 24 acres
Household units 1,542 units 810 units 300 units 432 units
4.5 Average Net Density
Beyond 2040 (Full build-out)
Total
Single-family and De-
tached townhomes
Attached townhomes
and Twinhomes Apartments
3 u/a 6 u/a 18 u/a
Acres 164 acres 114 acres 35 acres 15 acres
Household units 822 units 342 units 210 units 270 units
5.0 Average Net Density
2050 Considerations
The small area plan provides data points and interim recommendations that can be used by the city within the
2050 Comprehensive Plan update process and to inform conversations with developers and property owners about
development and infrastructure activities within and near the study area. The following considerations may help
to inform future planning efforts regarding the Cedar Avenue study area.
Evolving density expectations for lower density residential typologies
Single-family and detached townhome typologies traditionally align with Lakeville’s lower density land use cate-
gories. However, recent development activity in and around the study area has produced higher net densities for
these housing types. This trend may warrant revisiting and potentially increasing density ranges for these cate-
gories in future land use planning to better reflect market conditions, development feasibility, and efficient use of
infrastructure.
Medium-Density typologies align with established land use categories
Attached townhomes and twinhomes are well aligned with Lakeville’s existing medium density land use categories.
These typologies fit comfortably within density ranges historically applied in the City’s planning framework and
continue to meet demand for flexible, attainable, and moderately dense housing options. Their placement in the
land use plan should reinforce transitions between lower-density neighborhoods and higher-density districts.
City of Lakeville | DRAFT Cedar Avenue Land Use & Market Analysis Plan | Appendix B B-8
High-Density Residential should consider form and function
Apartment development aligns with the City’s high density residential categories and has historically been deliv-
ered across a wide density spectrum. Future planning should explore this full range, including building scale, inter-
nal circulation, access, parking design, and resident amenities, to ensure the City provides rental options suitable
for a diverse array of households. The land use plan should support strategic placement of high density housing to
reinforce multimodal access, transit potential, and proximity to services.
Commercial and office uses should consider both neighborhood and regional needs
Commercial and office areas in the study area should be planned to accommodate a variety of small scale neigh-
borhood services and may support broader regional commercial activity. The study area’s location along Cedar
Avenue and the future 185th Street extension, support both localized daily needs and regional visitation.
Green Corridors are foundational to future land use and infrastructure planning
The green corridors that traverse the study area, including drainageways, natural resource areas, and challenging
topography, are key structural elements for future neighborhood design. These features must be intentionally
integrated into master planning efforts to ensure ecological function, stormwater performance, and community
character are preserved. The corridors also offer opportunities for trails, open space connections, and neighbor-
hood identity.
Single-Family and Detached Townhomes will remain leading market drivers
According to the market study, single-family and detached townhomes show the highest demand and absorption
potential. These are also the development types most recently delivered in surrounding areas. Their placement
within the land use framework should reflect the small area plan’s development structure, align with lower volume
transportation networks, and take advantage of adjacency to green corridors to enhance neighborhood quality.
Twinhomes and Attached Townhomes as transitional, market-driven housing options
Twinhome and attached townhome products also exhibit strong market support and may occupy significant
development areas within the study area. These typologies serve as effective transitions between lower-density
housing and higher intensity uses. They are well suited near apartment sites, commercial areas, and community
amenities where increased activity levels and infrastructure capacity support a more compact residential form.
Strategic distribution of apartment development to support housing diversity and com-
merce
Apartment land uses were intentionally placed in smaller concentrations throughout the study area to diversify
housing choices and strengthen the viability of commercial development. By locating higher-density housing near
amenities and activity centers, the plan supports walkability, enhances access to services, and helps generate
customer bases for emerging commercial nodes.
Commercial typology supports local and regional activity nodes
The commercial typology was applied to areas positioned to serve both neighborhood residents and regional
travelers. Its placement leverages visibility and access along Cedar Avenue while also benefiting from proximity
to higher-density residential development. The future extension of 185th Street is expected to further enhance
mobility and access, potentially catalyzing additional commercial investment in the study area.